Week 13 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Article sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses, and Super Stacks.
The main Yahoo slate does not include the Thursday games or Monday Night Football.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. Three teams play Home and Dome during the Week 13 Sunday slate:
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Houston Texans vs New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Preferred Position Price Points
Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price ranges to target when creating DFS lineups.
QB – $28 – $29
Jared Goff LAR @ ARI
It’s a Road and Dome matchup for Jared Goff and the Rams. Not only will the game be indoors and immune to bad weather conditions, but the QB faces the team giving up the most fantasy points to the position. It’s all about the away teams this week as 4 visitors have implied totals of at least 25 points. Counts the Rams among them as they look to get the offense back on track. Goff only has 3 games of over 20 fantasy points this season. All 3 matches were against teams that are among the top 6 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Look for Goff to make it 4 out of 4 this week.
Sam Darnold NYJ @ CIN $28
For Sam Darnold, 2019 can be described as an up and down experience. The positive moments have come of late for Darnold as he has scored his 3 most productive fantasy games over the last 3 contests. While the yardage has been excellent, finding the end zone has been a major factor. Darnold has scored 9 total TDs in that stretch. The hot streak should continue against the Bengals who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to QBs this season.
RB – $21-$22
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Melvin Gordon LAC @ DEN $22
Since returning to the field, Melvin Gordon has been very busy in the Red Zone. In 7 games played this season, he has accumulated 22 Red Zone carries, including 7 from inside the 5-yard line. Gordon has rewarded the team by scoring 5TDs over the last 5 contests. This week, the Chargers face a Broncos defense that is more vulnerable on the ground. Denver has surrendered the 4th fewest fantasy points to QBs in 2019, but only 12th fewest to RBs. So while it is not a great matchup, the Chargers would be wise to approach this road contest with a run-heavy approach. In week 13, Gordon should be in line for his 4th 15+ touch game in a row.
Todd Gurley LAR @ ARI $21
There were concerns early in the season about Todd Gurley‘s workload, especially his involvement in the passing game. There were 4 games where Gurley only saw 1 target. The last 3 games, however, at least 3 targets each time. Gurley has also seen an uptick in Red Zone opportunities. After ceading red zone carries to Malcolm Brown early in 2019, Gurley has reclaimed that role. He now has the 8th highest percentage of any team’s Red Zone opportunities this season. In week 13, the Rams take on the Cardinals, the team allowing the 9th most fantasy points to RBs, giving Gurley a great matchup.
WR – $30-$31
Davante Adams GB @ NYG $31
This is the week to pay up at WR. That all begins with Davante Adams. For starters, he has been targeted at least 10 times in each of the games since his return from injury. In all 3 of those contests, Adams caught 7 passes for varying degrees of success. While he used those 7 receptions to produce 118 against the Panthers, he failed to reach 45 yards in games against the Chargers and 49ers. Both of those teams rank among the 6th fewest in fantasy points allowed to WRs in 2019. Carolina meanwhile, has given up the 8th most fantasy points to the position. This week? The Giants have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs. With another healthy target share and a great matchup, Adams could be in line for a season-best output.
Tyreek Hill KC vs OAK $30
This next WR is also in a rather favorable matchup. Tyreek Hill takes on the Raiders, the team that has given up the 9th most fantasy points to WRs in 2019. Regardless of the matchup, Hill possesses tremendous upside. In the 5 games that he started and did not leave with an injury, Hill has 5 TDs and two 100-yard games. The Chiefs have the highest implied total of the week at 30.5 points. Oakland is vulnerable and Kansas City, and Hill, should be able to capitalize. With both Hill and Adams dealing with injuries but expected to be full-go on Sunday, their ownership may be lower than normal.
TE – $19 – $20
Hunter Henry LAC @ DEN $20
Hunter Henry has played 6 games since returning from a week 1 injury. He has produced double-digit fantasy points in 5 of those contests. As far as passing options go for the Chargers, Henry might be the safest. The Broncos have surrendered the 14th most fantasy points to TEs. While that may not sound the most inspiring, consider that Denver have surrendered the 12th and 6th fewest fantasy points to RBs and WRs respectively.
Darren Waller OAK @ KC $19
At 51 points, the combined over/under for the Raiders-Chiefs game tops the league this week. In an expected shootout, look for Oakland to throw the football often. While Darren Waller has topped 3 receptions only once in the last 5 games, he still possesses the upside of a team’s top receiver. This is especially true since Kansas City has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to TEs this season.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – Miles Sanders PHI @ MIA $16
While the Eagles offense has combined to score 19 points over the last 2 games, they do get a great matchup in week 13. The Dolphins have surrendered the most points in the NFL this year at 346 or 31.45 per game. That should give Philadelphia plenty of scoring opportunities. Miles Sanders has been the lead back with Jordan Howard out of the lineup. With Howard questionable entering week 13, Sanders could be in store for another massive workload. Even if Howard plays, Sanders has a great opportunity against the defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RBs this season.
WR – A.J. Brown TEN @ IND $15
It’s another Road and Dome option as A.J. Brown and the Titans travel to Indianapolis. Ideally, we would like to represent the home team but the offensive upside of the Colts is capped without their top RB and WR. Brown has been inconsistent but his bright spots have shined. The rookie WR actually leads the Titans in targets, receiving yards and receiving TDs. Brown’s 18.7 yards per reception speaks to his role as a deep threat. That makes him an inexpensive GPP or tournament option.
TE – Tyler Higbee LAR @ ARI $10
Tyler Higbee presents a great example of a player whose price does not necessarily reflect his situation. Gerald Everett was a late-week inactive so Higbee is still priced at the minimum $10. The timing couldn’t be any better as the Rams face the Cardinals in week 13. While Arizona has been a hotbed for fantasy production all season, they have been especially vulnerable to opposing TEs. Not only have they surrendered the most fantasy points to the position, but they are the only NFL against whom TEs have averaged over 1 TD per game. Capitalize on this opportunity.
Dominant Defenses
Green Bay Packers @ NYG $15
While Daniel Jones has had a fairly successful rookie season, he does have a propensity to turn the ball over. While 8 INT doesn’t seem too bad, it is compounded by the 14 times that Jones has fumbled. As a result, the Giants have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The weather will not do Jones any favor with rain, snow and strong winds all in the forecast. The Packers have been creating takeaways throughout the season and that should continue in this matchup. At the very worst, Green Bay should rack up the sacks against the offensive line ranked 23rd in adjusted sack rate.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ JAX $11
This defensive matchup certainly has some risk, especially since they have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs and the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs and TEs in 2019. But where they do excel is on the ground, where they have surrendered the 2nd fewest fantasy points to RBs. The Jaguars offense has revolved around Leonard Fournette most of the season. If the Buccaneers can slow him down or even shut him out, Jacksonville’s game plan will be compromised. Since returning from a collarbone injury, Nick Foles has not looked great. With his shoulder less than 100%, Foles could throw an INT fairly easily, especially if Tampa Bay gets up to a big lead and Foles has to force the issue. This is more of a GPP or tournament play.
Super Stacks
Chiefs
QB – Patrick Mahomes $38
RB – LeSean McCoy $14
TE – Travis Kelce $28
As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs have the highest implied point total on the slate. No surprise then when we see that the most expensive QB and TE both play for the Chiefs. Even so, I consider the duo of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and high priority stack. Certainly with Mahomes who is facing the defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to QBs.
With Damien Williams ruled out LeSean McCoy should ger the first crack at carries. While the Raiders run defense is tough, McCoy provides upside simply due to Kansas City’s explosiveness on offense. McCoy currently leads the team in Red Zone carries, 2nd on the team in carries from inside the 5-yard line and 3rd on the team in Red Zone targets. If the Chiefs can get close to the end zone, then the possibilities surrounding McCoy’s production rise significantly. McCoy is also cheap enough that you could probably have him in your lineup with Mahomes and either of the Chiefs’ top receiving options.
I mentioned Tyreek Hill and in earlier sections of this article. Either he or Travis Kelce makes for an excellent stack option with Mahomes. Hill and Kelce are likely too expensive to stack both with their QB. But against this Oakland defense, you can pretty much pick your poison and play to your positional preference.
Panthers
QB – Kyle Allen $26
WR – D.J. Moore $25
             -OR-
RB – Christian McCaffrey $42
DEF – Carolina Panthers $18
This stack is probably too expensive to do all in one lineup. But going against Washington, I want to capitalize by playing as many Panthers players as possible.
Beginning with the passing game stack, Kyle Allen has had an up and down season with 2 games with at least 23 fantasy points, and 2 games with less than 4 fantasy points in 2019. The rest fall in between 11 and 18 fantasy points so Allen has not been providing week-in-week-out consistency. However, there is a certain amount of predictability about Allen’s performances. His two best games came against teams (Cardinals and Saints) that have allowed the 10th and 11th most fantasy points to WRs respectively. While Washington is not quite that at that level, they are still a vulnerable defense. There is no better player to stack alongside Allen than D.J. Moore. He has at least 9 targets in all but 3 games this season, including the last 6 in a row. Moore and his consistent target share should shred the Washington secondary.
As for the other Panthers stack, it is never a bad idea to play Christian McCaffrey. Even if he is $4 more expensive than any other player on the slate. McCaffrey has been a model of consistency in 2019 with only 1 game where he scored less than 19 fantasy points. And that was against the Buccaneers who have surrendered the 2nd fewest fantasy points to RBs this season. Washington not only gives up the 9th most fantasy points to RBs but also the 6th most fantasy points to defenses. That makes the McCaffrey-Panthers D stack a potentially valuable one.
Other stacks: Packers, Rams
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