Week 17 is a strange one in the NFL. Quite a few teams have been eliminated from postseason contention, while others have locked up their playoff positions. Therefore there will be teams with nothing to play for. While I anticipate that players will play hard and give it their all regardless, coaching staves and front offices may feel different and rest star players or limit their playing time.
All of this to say that I will do things differently this week. Instead of separating this article into the usual sections, it will be divided team-by-team. The article will focus on teams with something to play for.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
1st-Round Bye
The following are among the teams who can still clinch a 1st-round bye in the NFL playoffs. Some can win and get in, while others need help. But in all instances, these teams will be playing hard for a shot to go straight to the Divisional Round.
Green Bay Packers (@ DET)
Aaron Jones RB $35
The Packers will secure a 1st-round bye with a win in week 17. They can reasonably be expected to put up points as Vegas has given them the 4th highest implied total of the week at 27.5 points. Since they are playing the team that has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs, a high point total should mean ample production on the ground. For Aaron Jones, this matchup may also come with an expanded workload. Jamaal Williams will not participate in the regular-season finale and it seems unlikely that any other Green Bay RB will significantly eat into Jones’ touches.
Allen Lazard WR $16
Allen Lazard is arguably the best value for any Packers player on the week 17 slate. He originally broke out against the Lions by scoring a key 4th-quarter TD. While it has taken some time, Lazard has emerged as Green Bay’s #2 receiver. He and Davante Adams were the only Packers to see more than 3 targets and 2 receptions last week. Lazard’s 9 targets in week 16 were a season-high which demonstrates that he is trending in the right direction.
Packers Defense $18
The Lions offense has been in a tailspin ever since Matthew Stafford‘s injury. Considering that Detroit has nothing to play for, it would be shocking to see him under center for them this week. Instead, David Blough will likely continue to be the Lions’ QB. Opposing defenses have scored double-digit fantasy points in half of the games that Blough has started at QB. Considering how well the Packers defense has been, it would not be surprising to see another poor offensive showing in Detroit.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs LAC)
Patrick Mahomes QB $35
Patrick Mahomes has the ability to put up decent fantasy performances even against top tier defenses. For instance, he is coming off of back-to-back games of over 23 fantasy points, and in both instances was facing a team in the bottom 8 of fantasy points allowed the QBs. In week 17 he squares off against another such team in the form of the Chargers. While the first meeting against them was not productive for Mahomes, he has his full complement of weapons available. Those players (listed below) also make for some great stack options alongside Mahomes.
Damien Williams WR $15
Damien Williams returned from injury last week and immediately received 16 rushing attempts and 3 targets. He appears to be the Chiefs lead-back and that role should lead to some production. Kansas City has the 4th highest implied total of the week. Playing Williams, who has a part in a productive offense, is a great idea, especially when that player only costs $15.
Tyreek Hill WR $30
There are not many WRs I am willing to pay up for this week. Looking at his matchup, it may surprise you that Tyreek Hill is the high priced WR that I am targeting. The Chargers have surrendered the 3rd fewest fantasy points to WRs in 2019. However, Hill, by using his blazing speed, can get behind a defense and put up a big score, even against the most difficult of coverages. Hill scored 3 TDs in 2 games vs the Broncos this season. And that was while being lined up against Chris Harris for long portions of those games. Look for him to do the same against Casey Hayward.
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Travis Kelce TE $28
Deciding between Travis Kelce and his teammate Hill will come down to roster construction. Do you want a top tier TE, then take Kelce and grab some value WRs. Or is there a bargain TE that you are eyeing? In that case, leave Kelce and take Hill as your Mahomes stack option.
Chiefs Defense $18
The Chiefs defense has been on fire lately with 4 double-digit fantasy performances in their last 5 games. And the only contest where they did not reach double-digits in that stretch was against the Patriots. That is a team that knows how to protect the football and not turn it over. That is not quite the case for the Chargers. Philip Rivers has thrown over 1 INT per game in 2019. Look for another great performance from the Kansas City defense in week 17.
New England Patriots (vs MIA)
N’Keal Harry WR $15
Way back in week 2, when the Patriots demolished the Dolphins, it was primarily due to their success passing the football, especially in the Red Zone. Consistently healthy receivers have been hard to come by in New England of late. Even rookie N’Keal Harry missed the early portion of the 2019 season. Now that he is in the lineup, he may be the healthiest WR option for the team with the highest implied total of the week at 30.25 points. If there are to be TDs thrown in this contest, who better than Harry to catch them. He certainly makes for a great bargain play.
New Orleans Saints (@ CAR)
Alvin Kamara RB $27
The Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points to the RB position in 2019. That should put Alvin Kamara in a prime spot this week. The Saints RB has had a significant drop off of last year’s TD rate. After finding the end zone 18 times in 2018, Kamara only has 4 TDs this season. In recent weeks, his price has dropped below $30. With an upcoming matchup against the league’s worst run defense, $27 makes him a virtual must play.
Saints Defense $17
Not only do the Saints have the 2nd highest implied total of the week at 29.25 points, but they also have the 2nd highest spread. As 13 favorites, the should force the Panthers into a situation where they need to pass the football often. As we saw last week, that could lead to turnovers since Will Grier threw 3 INTs. There are not many defenses priced lower than the Saints that I trust.
San Francisco 49ers (@ SEA)
Jimmy Garoppolo SF $30
Jimmy Garoppolo makes for a great QB option for anyone looking to pay down from the Patrick Mahomes level. The contest between the 49ers and the Seahawks has the 3rd highest combined over/under at 47 points. It is also the biggest over/under from the games involving teams that are still in the playoff hunt. Getting the QB from the team that is favored (SF by 3.5 is the current line) makes for a great option.
Emmanuel Sanders WR $19
Whether you are stacking him with Garoppolo or not, Emmanuel Sanders is a great option for your lineups. With Deebo Samuel limited all week with a shoulder injury, look for Sanders to be one of the two primary passing options for San Francisco. And it’s not as if Sanders cannot produce when George Kittle is on the field. Sanders’ best game as a 49er came against the Saints, a contest where Kittle saw 8 targets. The only difference is $11 in Week 17 price tag. Give me the cheaper option to plug in at WR.
Seattle Seahawks (vs SF)
Jacob Hollister TE $11
Jacob Hollister may be the best bargain play on the entire slate. At $11, he has not been this low since he was at the minimum $10 last time that he played the 49ers. In that contest, Hollister was targeted 10 times and led the Seahawks in receptions with 8. He also caught a TD, something that is difficult to do against that San Francisco secondary. Hollister has proven that he can succeed even in a difficult situation and can be trusted in DFS.
Playoff Spots
The following teams have yet to clinch a playoff spot, yet are all still alive.
Dallas Cowboys (vs WAS)
Ezekiel Elliott RB $34
Ezekiel Elliott is the only Cowboys player I would consider this week. Last week, Dallas’ QB looked limited in his throwing ability due to shoulder and hand injuries. I doubt that one week would allow for proper healing so expect another poor passing performance from the Cowboys. Of, course since they are still in the playoff race, they will need to do whatever they can to win the game. That likely means a heavy dose of Elliott against the team giving up the 4th most fantasy points to RBs.
Oakland Raiders (@ DEN)
DeAndre Washington RB $15
The Broncos defense has been stout this season. If there is one weakness, it is in the run game. The Raiders found that out when Josh Jacobs had a monster NFL debut against Denver. However, Jacobs has not practiced this week and his participation in the season finale is in doubt. If Jacobs in inactive, then expect DeAndre Washington to shoulder the majority of the Raiders’ rushing attempts. He saw 23 carries last week with Jacobs absent, and there is a chance of a repeat in this matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles (@ NYG)
Miles Sanders RB $22
Even with the likely return of Jordan Howard to the field this week, Miles Sanders should still see a large share of the RB workload. Sanders has received at least 5 targets in 4 straight games. Howard only has 14 targets on the entire season, so his return should not impact Sanders’ passing-down duties. With the Eagles’ top 2 WRs and top TE out for this contest, Sanders’ target share may actually increase. That will be needed as the Giants are far more vulnerable through the air then they are on the ground.
Dallas Goedert TE $18
Dallas Goedert should also benefit from the Eagles’ key injuries. Without Zach Ertz in Week 17, Goedert will not only be the team’s top TE, but also potentially the most targeted Philadelphia player. $18 is a bit of a jump in price, but Goedert is coming off a game where he saw a season-high in targets (12), receptions (9), yards (91), and fantasy points (19.6). While Goedert had an unimpressive matchup against the Giants, Ertz did produce his only multi-TD game of 2019. Perhaps Goedert can do the same this time around.
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ BAL)
Benny Snell RB $11
With the news that James Conner has been ruled out for Week 17, Benny Snell is expected to once again shoulder the workload on the ground. In the 3 games that Snell saw action when Conner was absent, the former received 21, 16 and 16 carries respectively. At only $11, an RB getting that type of workload is well worth plugging into your lineups.
Tennessee Titans (@ HOU)
Ryan Tannehill QB $36
Ryan Tannehill has been very consistent this season. Since taking over as the Titans starting QB, he has only 1 game with less than 18.94 fantasy points scored. That explains why only two players at the position have a higher price. Tannehill did have one of his better fantasy performances against the Texans just two weeks ago. He produced 25.16 points when last facing this divisional opponent. This is not that unusual as Houston has given up the 5th most fantasy points to QBs this season.
A.J. Brown WR $23
A.J. Brown was shut down, by Marshon Lattimore that is. The Saints shut down cornerback held Brown to just 1 catch on 2 targets. This was a stack contrast to the previous two contests where he combined for 13 receptions, 267 yards, and 2 TDs. Brown did save his week 16 fantasy performance by scoring on a 49-yard rushing attempt. This demonstrates that the Titans are designing touches for their wide receiver. Against the Texans in week 15, Brown saw 13 targets. Without a corner of the same caliber as Latimore, Brown should bounce back.
Jonnu Smith TE $15
Yet another Tennessee pass-catcher who gets designed touches. Like Brown, Jonnu Smith has produced a long rushing attempt. 57 yards to be exact, and t was against the Texans. Now, presumably, Houston will be ready for such a play, but perhaps that will open up Smith to make a big play through the air. Either way, Smith is a decent option for those looking to pivot off of Brown, but still want some exposure to the Titans passing game.
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