History tells us that rookie wide receivers tend to make a significant leaps in production in either Year 2 or Year 3 of their careers.
There are some exceptions to that – Justin Jefferson, who finished with 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns in his rookie season, which was good enough to finish as the sixth best receiver in fantasy in PPR, according to Fantasy Pros. Jefferson followed that with 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns to finish as the fourth receiver in fantasy.
We’re going to dive into this season’s Year 2 receivers in the Top 50 at the position, according to Fantasy Pros ADP as of June 18.
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
2021 ADP: WR 29
2022 ADP: WR 3
What did he do in 2021?
Ja’Marr Chase was viewed as one of the best receiving prospects in the last several years and he did not disappoint, despite issues to start his pro career. Chase sat out the 2020 college football season at LSU and entered the NFL with a case of the drops. He had four drops combined in the last two preseason games. The drops caused Chase’s ADP to slip heading into the regular season.
Those who were able to get Chase at his sixth/seventh round ADP struck gold. He finished as WR5 in PPR scoring, putting up the greatest wide receiver rookie season on record with 1,455 Receiving Yards and 13 receiving touchdowns. Chase single-handedly brought home championships for fantasy managers with a 266-yard, three touchdown performance in Week 17.
What to expect in 2022?
With an ADP of WR3, it’s likely that the Chase is off the board anywhere from the end of Round 1 to the middle, and possibly the end of Round 2 if someone picking at the front of the draft gets lucky.
As great as Chase performed in 2021, there’s still room for him to be even better in 2022. Chase had 11 drops in the regular season, which was the most in the NFL. The Bengals dramatically improved their offensive line in the offseason, signing tackle La’el Collins, guard Alex Cappa and center Ted Karras. The added protection will allow quarterback Joe Burrow more time to look down the field to Chase on deep throws.
Chase’s 2021 production coupled with his connection with Burrow that goes back to LSU, it’s possible that Chase could see a bump in target share, up from the 23.7 percent he saw last season. It’s likely that Chase’s touchdown total drops, but he could make up for it with more targets, receiving yards and receptions. Similar to Justin Jefferson’s arc from Year 1 to Year 2, don’t expect much regression for Chase this year. The price for Chase is steep, but he has solidified himself as a Top 5 fantasy receiver.
Embed from Getty ImagesJaylen Waddle (MIA)
2021 ADP: WR 44
2022 ADP: WR 13
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
What did he do in 2021?
Jaylen Waddle, similar to Chase, was another rookie receiver that vastly outperformed his draft position. Waddle posted a WR 13 finish to the season with 104 receptions, 1,015 yards and six touchdowns on 140 targets. What kept him from breaking into the Top 12 was his low average depth of target (aDOT). Waddle’s aDOT was 7.0. That was third lowest in the league for anyone with 100+ targets.
What to expect in 2022?
Waddle’s aDOT is something fantasy managers hope the Dolphins look to improve under new head coach coach Mike Mcdaniel. The issue is there’s a bigger problem for a potential breakout season than his aDOT and his name is Tyreek Hill.
Hill’s arrival in Miami shakes up the receiver hierarchy in Miami. Waddle thrived mostly on short area targets in 2021, but that is something that Hill can also do really well. Between Waddle and Hill, the Dolphins have a pair of the fastest two receivers in the league.
Concerns for the Dolphins’ offense start with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa isn’t known for having the strongest arm and his downfield accuracy comes and goes. One question is how much are the Dolphins going air the ball out this season? The Dolphins had 615 pass attempts in 2021, good for eighth in the league, according to Statmuse. McDaniel was the offensive coordinator for the 49ers last season, a team that finished in the bottom four in pass attempts with 514.
Miami revamped its running back room in the offseason, signing Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel. Last year’s starter Myles Gaskin is also still on the roster. With that many additions in the backfield, I expect the Dolphins to run the ball quite a bit.
It’s uncertain if the pass volume will be high enough to support two Top 15 receivers, not to mention Mike Gesicki and new addition Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Waddle has a wide range of outcomes ranging possibly from a Top 20 fantasy receiver to a bust as the 13th receiver off the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
2021 ADP: WR 71
2022 ADP: WR 25
What did he do in 2021?
Fantasy managers who remained patient with the Lions’ fourth-round pick, or picked him up off waivers, were rewarded handsomely.
St. Brown’s big break came late in the season after his team was already 0-11-1. In Week 13, St. Brown caught the winning touchdown, capping a 10-86-1 day.
In the last six games, St. Brown went for 51-560-5 with 61-1 on the ground and a 2-point conversion. His weekly fantasy finishes in that span were: 6th, 26th, 6th, 6th, 2nd, and 9th. In the last six games he was WR2 behind Cooper Kupp, despite starting quarterback Jared Goff missing two of the last six games.
What to expect in 2022?
St. Brown’s emergence in the final six games likely helped fantasy managers to championships, but that production may be hard to come by in Year 2.
Detroit tight end T.J. Hockenson missed the final five games of regular season, which allowed St. Brown to feast on a 33.3 percent target share. From Week 1 through Week 13, Hockenson led the team with a 20.9 percent target share. St. Brown saw a 15.9 percent target share in that span.
Hockenson’s presence may take some volume away from St. Brown, along with the additions of rookie Jameson Williams and D.J. Chark in the receiving corps.
Goff will undoubtedly have more mouths to feed this season with St. Brown, Hockenson, Williams, Chark and running back D’Andre Swift. St. Brown showed flashes in 2021, but with more competition for targets, it’ll be hard for him to replicate the end of his rookie season.
Embed from Getty ImagesElijah Moore (NYJ)
2021 ADP: WR 58
2022 ADP: WR 32
What did he do in 2021?
Moore was starting to catch his stride before a quad injury cut his season short. He played in 11 of the team’s first 12 games and accumulated a 43-538-5 line, good for WR50 in PPR.
Despite the Jets’ struggling on offense for stretches throughout the season, Moore flashed immense upside in 2021. He had two top-three WR week finishes, including being the WR1 in PPR in Week 9. He was also the WR3 in Week 11 and the WR8 in Week 13, his last game of the season.
What to expect in 2022?
The Jets used the No. 10 pick in April’s draft on Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson who many believed was the most talented receiver in the draft. Wilson steps in as an assumed upgrade over Jamison Crowder but the hopes of the Jets offense relies on the growth of second-year quarterback Zach Wilson.
Zach Wilson and Moore seemed to develop rapport as the season continued and the trio of Moore, Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson should be enough fire power to help the young quarterback take a leap.
If the New York offense as a whole can take a step forward in 2022, Moore has the potential to return good value on his 7th/8th round ADP.
Devonta Smith (PHI)
2021 ADP: WR 31
2022 ADP: WR 36
What did he do in 2021?
Smith is one of the few rookie receivers to see his ADP fall from Year 1 to Year 2. Coming off a Heisman Trophy in college at Alabama, there were high expectations for Smith.
He finished the year as WR30 thanks to a 64-916-5 line. Those are good numbers for any rookie receiver but there were things to be concerned about.
Smith reached 100 yards in a game only twice the entire season. He posted two WR1 games and two WR2 games, while finishing outside of the Top 50 receivers nine teams in 17 games. Smith also played with an erratic quarterback in college teammate Jalen Hurts on one of the more run-heavy offenses in the league.
Only 51.3 percent of Philadelphia’s targets went to receivers in 2021. That was bottom three in the league. The Eagles’ passing game relied heavily on the tight ends and running backs.
A positive for Smith was his aDOT of 15.2. This was the largest aDOT of anyone with over 100 targets in 2021.
What to expect in 2022?
The Eagles trading for Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown is the biggest reason for Smith’s dip in ADP heading into 2022. Brown will command a large target share that comes with the four-year $100 million extension he signed with the team immediately following the trade.
Smith’s 22.1 percent target share in 2021 is expected to come down unless the Eagles throw more or take targets away from the tight ends and throw more to the receivers. Even with Brown’s addition to the team, it’s hard to see Eagles’ coach Nick Sirianni veering away from the run-heavy attack that propelled the team into the playoffs after a 2-5 start.
Smith has the talent to be a very productive receiver but his outlook hinges on Hurts’ leap and if the offense will have enough passing volume to support two very good fantasy receivers.
The early offseason reports from Sirianni suggest Hurts is ready to make a leap in the passing game, which would be pivotal for Smith to land in the WR2 range.
Embed from Getty ImagesRashod Bateman (BAL)
2021 ADP: WR 76
2022 ADP: WR 38
What did he do in 2021?
A first-round pick in 2021, Bateman had hype surrounding him early in camp before an injury kept him out for the first five games of the season.
Bateman started in four of the final 12 games and hauled in 46 catches for 515 yards and one score on 68 targets. Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson missed the last last four games to close out the year and Bateman had 14 catches for 111 yards and one touchdown in that stretch.
What to expect in 2022?
Bateman has breakout written all over him, not just because of his talent, but also because of the lack of competition for targets in the receiving corps.
Baltimore traded No. 1 receiver Hollywood Brown to Arizona and Sammy Watkins is gone to Green Bay, which leaves Bateman as Jackson’s No. 1 receiving threat on the outside. The team’s unwillingness to sign another established receiver or use meaningful draft capital to grab a receiver proves the team has confidence in Bateman as its No. 1 receiver. Mark Andrews is expected to lead Baltimore in targets but it’s not unrealistic to see Bateman somewhere around a 22 percent target share when you factor in Brown’s departure with his 24.7 percent share.
If Jackson continues to grow as a passer and Bateman firmly establishes himself as the go-to guy on the outside, expect the second-year pro to shatter his eighth round ADP.
Kadarius Toney (NYG)
2021 ADP: WR 81
2022 ADP: WR 46
What did he do in 2021?
Toney’s rookie season was a tough one for the University of Florida product. He consistently dealt with injures while posting a lackluster 39-420-0 line.
The Giants were abysmal on offense, so that didn’t help Toney’s prospects. The team fired its offensive coordinator midway through the season and lost starting quarterback Daniel Jones to a season-ending injury. Things have to be better for Toney in 2022 if only a little bit.
What to expect in 2022?
New Giants’ head coach Brian Daboll is expected to inject life into the offense and that could help Toney in 2022 as one of the more dynamic playmakers on the team, along with running back Saquon Barkley.
The problem for Toney is that Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepherd and Darius Slayton are all still on the team and command attention although Golladay and Shepherd have a hard time staying healthy.
As the 46th receiver off the board and the 114th player overall, there’s a minimal risk involved in taking a chance on Toney. If he can stay healthy and flash his potential in training camp, he may have several fantasy relevant weeks throughout the season.
Other notable receivers
Rondale Moore (ARI)
2022 ADP: WR 60
DeAndre Hopkins’ six-game suspension gives Moore a chance to get out to a hot start. Arizona’s trade for Hollywood Brown, along with A.J. Green’s return tempers the excitement around the second-year receiver. Moore showed flashes last season but he may need an injury to a teammate to retain fantasy relevance all season.
Josh Palmer (LAC)
2022 ADP: WR 77
Palmer, the third round pick from last season enters 2022 as the third receiver on what is expected to be one of the more prolific offences in the NFL. Palmer finished the 2021 season on a high note posting an 18-185-3 line in the last five games. He finished as a Top 32 receiver in three of those weeks.
Palmer can be viewed as a late-round dart throw at best. He has a little standalone value because of the high-powered offense he is in, but he possesses immense upside if Keenan Allen or Mike Williams got injured, which isn’t outside the realm of possibilities.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
