It finally happened after months of conjecture. Zach Ertz is officially a member of the undefeated Cardinals.
Hats off to both teams on this deal. It helps both in terms of “real-life football”, but does it help or hurt any players in particular?
Let’s look at Ertz’s former team(mates) first.
Dallas Goedert
Oh my… was that tweet sent by Schefter the sound of Goedert becoming a top-five TE rest of season? Unfortunately, the play at QB is going to render that unlikely. Does he have weekly top-five upside as the last man standing? You bet he does. He isn’t going to absorb 100% of the vacated targets, but he should see a hefty uptick from his current 3.8 per game pace. (Ertz averaged 5.2 targets per game)
Goedert has gotten five full games in his career without Zach Ertz. He saw 95.4% of the snaps, 33 targets, 21 receptions, 265 receiving yards, and two TDs. That’s a 17 game pace of 112 targets, 71 receptions, 901 receiving yards, and seven TDs. He is the biggest winner in this trade.
Jalen Hurts
He loses his second favorite target in an already subpar receiving corps. He may take a little bit to adjust to life without Ertz as his security blanket, but a large portion of his fantasy production comes from his legs. 36 percent of his fantasy production in fact. The rest of the receivers have to rise to the challenge. Hurts is slightly downgraded as a result of this trade.
DeVonta Smith
He is enjoying a 22.4% target share that seems destined to increase without the steady presence of Zach Ertz. This trade boosts his rest of season outlook to a top-25 WR. He is talented enough and now may see a 24+ percent target share to improve upon his inconsistent (WR19, WR86, WR71, WR12, and WR28 weekly finishes) season.
Miles Sanders and Kenny Gainwell
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Zach Ertz ranks 42nd among TEs in running block grade according to PFF. Goedert is 0.7 behind him in that grade. The departure of Ertz doesn’t move the needle for the backfield aside from their opportunities on third down. Without Ertz’s reliable route running and hands, I foresee a lot more RB involvement in third-down conversions, especially in those third-and-short/third-and-medium situations.
Jalen Reagor/Quez Watkins/rest of the receivers
I don’t see Reagor, Watkins, or (God forbid) J.J. Arcega-Whiteside suddenly becoming fantasy relevant. They aren’t worth rostering in all but the deepest leagues.
The Arizona Cardinals continue to aggressively push their chips in adding another weapon to an already potent offense.
Kyler Murray
Embed from Getty ImagesThis one is pretty self explanatory. He has another talented receiver to throw the ball to. Ertz can be a big body in the red zone increasing Murray’s passing TD upside. Murray is already a locked-and-loaded top five QB. Now he has the potential to be the number one fantasy QB for the rest of the season.
DeAndre Hopkins
This is legitimate bad news for Nuk. He is already on pace for the second lowest targets per game of his career. He and Ertz operate similarly by finding the weak spots in zone and working the intermediate area of the field. I’m not pushing the panic button on Nuk at all, but it’s time to adjust expectations down to a low-end top 12 WR rest of season.
A.J. Green/Christian Kirk/Rondale Moore
All three of these players are going to see a reduction in targets. It will be interesting to where Ertz lines up in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Arizona plays 1-0 personnel (four WRs, zero TE, one RB) 22 percent of the time which is far-and-away the most in the NFL. Will Kingsbury line Ertz up out wide as a WR or will the offensive philosophy shift now that the team finally has a reliable TE. Either way, I would rank these players Green, Moore, and Kirk (in that order) for the rest of the season.
Chase Edmonds/James Conner
The backfield’s role should remain consistent with the first five weeks. Edmonds will still be a safety valve for Murray and Conner will come in to grind out the clock and provide a distraction at the goal line while Murray bootlegs untouched for another rushing TD. Edmonds could see a couple of targets siphoned, but it shouldn’t be significant.
Zach Ertz traded the cold, stinky streets of Philadelphia for the sunny blue skies of Arizona. He is the biggest winner in this whole situation. Sorry (not sorry) Philly fans… this Cowboys fan will always kick you while you’re down.
In summation: Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith, and Kyler Murray = GOOD. Jalen Hurts and DeAndre Hopkins = BAD. Everyone else will continue to produce at similar levels to the first five weeks. Enjoy some football this weekend and good luck in fantasy, DFS, and betting!
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