NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Advice Week 8 (11/1/20)

It has been awhile since I’ve had the time to post one of my advice columns for DraftKings. Between doing my show twice a week, ranking and writing for FantasyPros, and life, it has been hard for me to find the time. But, with Week 8 rolling around, I found the time to put out some written content.

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Now on to the column…

Explosive PlayMy top play for the position
Deep ThreatA deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings.
Hail MaryAlso know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's.
Missed TackleA missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests.

*note* Main slate only

Quarterbacks

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Explosive Play Ryan Tannehill (TEN) $6,800 @ CIN

Tannehill is coming off a sub-par fantasy day against the stiffest competition he had faced all year, but this week he gets the “unable to stop anyone” Bengals. It’s within the realm of possibility that Derrick Henry carries the ball 35 times and Tannehill never has to throw, but I think the Bengals can put up points on the other side, forcing the Titans to put it in the air more often than they would like.

Deep Threat | Joe Burrow (CIN) $6,200 vs. TEN

Speaking of Bengals and scoring points, I also like Burrow in this game and why wouldn’t I. He has thrown for at least 300 yards in five of his seven starts including the 400-yard-game he just put up on the Browns. Titans give up the eighth most points to quarterbacks at 21.05. At a $600 discount over Tannehill, I might actually like Burrow more.

Hail Mary | Derek Carr (LV) $5,500 @ CLE

Carr has 20 of more DK points in four of his six games this season and DraftKings is giving him zero respect. He is priced less than Ryan Fitzpatrick who isn’t even starting and Nick Foles who doesn’t have a single 20-point game to his name this season.

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Missed Tackle | Patrick Mahomes (KC) $8,100 vs NYJ

Weird seeing him here as a quarterback to avoid, but the Chiefs are running the ball more than ever, and there is a good chance Mahomes doesn’t have to do anything except hand it off. For the price you have to pay to get him, I don’t like him this week.

Others I like:

  1. Jared Goff @ MIA $6,500
  2. Jimmy Garoppolo @ SEA $5,400

Running Backs

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Explosive Play | Derrick Henry (TEN) $8,000 @ CIN

Henry hasn’t gone over 30 carries since Week 1, but I think he has a good shot to do it this week. This Bengals team can’t stop anyone from scoring, and the volume Henry gets is unmatched in the league except for a few other guys, namely Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott.

Deep Threat | Darrell Henderson (LAR) $5,900 @ MIA

I had a hard time settling on my Deep Threat this week. There are a lot of “questionable” players in the mid-tier, as well as players already ruled out. Henderson is as good as any, he gets a decent workload and the matchup with the Dolphins is favorable.

Hail Mary | DeeJay Dallas (SEA) $4,000 vs. SF

It’s the last man standing narrative. Chris Carson, Travis Homer, and Carlos Hyde are all questionable “at best” to play. If they are all out, Dallas gets a huge workload. The matchup is tough, but at $4,000 you don’t need him to do much.

Missed Tackle | NONE

Others I like:

  1. Jonathan Taylor @ DET $6,600
  2. D’Andre Swift vs. IND $5,300
  3. JaMycal Hasty @ SEA $5,000

Wide Receivers

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Explosive Play | Davante Adams (GB) $8,800 vs. MIN

I tried hard to not just plug in the most expensive wide receiver and call him my top play, it seemed like a cop-out, but I just couldn’t convince myself that Adams isn’t the top wide receiver this week. He is coming off a 16 target, 13 reception, nearly 200-yard game in Houston. The Vikings don’t have anyone that can match up with him — they give up the second-most points to wide receivers.

Deep ThreatKeenan Allen (LAC) $6,200 @ DEN

Allen has quickly become Justin Herbert’s go-to receiver. Allen had 13 targets last week, turning it into 10 catches for 125 yards. The only thing missing was a touchdown. He gets that TD this week.

Hail MaryDenzel Mims (NYJ) $3,200 @ KC

Every time I wrote Denzel Mims’ name down, my computer kept autocorrecting it to “Garbage Time”. Weird.

Missed TackleMichael Thomas (NO) $7,300 @ CHI

Coming off an injury and a bad match up. I can’t bring myself to play him this week.

Others I like:

  1. AJ Brown @ CIN $6,900
  2. Kenny Golladay vs. IND $6,600
  3. Tyler Boyd vs. TEN $6,600
  4. Brandon Aiyuk @ SEA $5,800

Tight Ends

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Explosive Play | George Kittle (SF) $7,000 @ SEA

The Seahawks give up the fourth fewest points to tight ends…wait, what? I looked it up, it’s true, but they also haven’t played any good ones. Hayden Hurst in Week 1 before he was acclimated into the offense, Patriots, Cowboys, Vikings, and Cardinals don’t exactly have top level tight-ends, and Mike Gesicki isn’t exactly lighting it up either. The Seahawks give up the most points to wide receivers, by far, and Kittle is more wide receiver than he is tight end.

Deep Threat |  Darren Waller (LV) $5,600 @ CLE

The Browns are middle of the road in points allowed to tight ends, but are 25th DVOA against the pass in general. Waller is an elite level tight end, but gives you a significant discount over Kittle.

Hail MaryTrey Burton (IND) $5,300 @ DET

The last time we saw Burton he was scoring two touchdowns, and he has received exactly five targets in each of his last three games.

Missed TackleRams Tight End

I don’t want anything to do with a tight end by committee.

Others I like:

  1. TJ Hockenson vs. IND $5,300
  2. Jonnu Smith @ CIN $4,100

Defense

Explosive Play | Chiefs vs. NYJ $4,500

If you told me that 11 Nascar driver’s we’re going to play defense against the Jets, I’d start the Nascar team.

Deep Threat | Rams @ MIA $3,800

Rams get a rookie quarterback in his first start since his major injury in college. Oh, and the Rams have Aaron Donald.

Hail Mary | Dolphins vs. LAR $2,400

This week is a pay up for defense week, but the Dolphins defense hasn’t been a bad fantasy defense and Jared Goff has been known to struggle on the road at times.

Missed Tackle | Ravens/Steelers $3,700/$3,600

This game is going to be a slug fest, and it will be low scoring, I just don’t see a lot of turnovers nor sacks in this game, and that’s what we are really looking for in a fantasy defense.

Others I like:

  1. Colts @ DET $3,100

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