It’s @TheBLeagueSays here with this week’s ‘Game Plan, where I give you plays to make for seasonal and daily roster construction, prop bets, and dynasty evaluations. Before you make any start and sit decisions this weekend make sure you check out our weekly rankings also.
Thank you, and enjoy!
Slant Route
Confucius says: “Everything has its beauty, but not everyone sees it”…
Yeah, I’ll chuck the ‘Nati boys in here again, because why the hell wouldn’t I!
I said last week that they would cover – and they did – however bad kicking from both sides prevented the overs from… well… kicking over (sorry).
But that’s not the point of this week, no. I’m riding the Bengals away to the Detroit Lions this week in a matchup I see as a pivot play. I get where a lot of the higher game stacks will come from (Kansas and Washington as a spoiler down below…) but still, I think there is some nice value at good prices to be had in this one.
What I have noticed with three fewer games on the slate is that the quality of the mid-to-high-tiered plays ($6500 to $5000) seems to be a little thin this week. Lucky for you, Ja’Marr Chase ($6700), Tyler Boyd ($5400), and Tee Higgins ($5300) are good options to choose from.
We have three running backs inside the top 20 of that position in DeAndre Swift (RB7), Joe Mixon (RB14), and Jamaal Williams (RB20) who are all priced under $6500 this week as well.
Even better than that though – is that both teams have struggled against the run with the Bengals (OPRK 25th) and Lions (OPRK 31st) have coughed up an average of 26.8 DKPPG and 34.6 DKPPG respectively to their opposition every week.
And finally… I may not tout Jarred Goff again, but Joe Burrow is currently the QB8 in pricing at $6300, and is only $500 more than what I think will be the chalk play of the week in Taylor Heinicke.
And although T.J. Hockenson has had a dip in form, at $5000 you can add him to Burrow ($6300) with Swift ($6300) and run it back with say Tee Higgins ($5400) and still be able to pay up and get some premium guys elsewhere.
Worth a look!
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Flat Route
Confucius says: “When anger rises, think of the consequences”…
Yeah, you. Yes – you! You probably reached for Trey Sermon in your rookie drafts. You probably got too much of him on your best-ball rosters too. I’d bet that some guy in your redraft home league went waaaaay too early on him as well, and has dropped him already.
Because there is no doubt in my mind or many others that Elijah Mitchell has ghosted Trey Sermon this year – he’s looked the livelier of the two, no doubt. But seeing the former Ohio State man already starting to get dropped from rosters? Maybe a touch hasty for me right now.
Would I have dropped him this early in the year? No.
Purely and simply because shoulder injuries like the one Elijah Mitchell has already sustained this year and their recovery can be fickle and can linger about.
And if you are a running back leading with that ball-and-socket joint repetitively into 300-lb lineman while already attaining an injury like this, this early into the season then I would heavily suggest that during their Bye week you look into attaining Sermon after his next quiet performance.
It’s a super soft schedule towards the end of the season, and I would want a piece of that backfield (to at least stash on your rosters now) heading into the final weeks of the year.
Comeback Route
Confucius says: “He who learns but does not think is lost. But he who thinks but does not learn is in great danger”…
You guys writing off the Chiefs? I mean… did they lose to a Mike Glennon-led New York Giants or did they lose three times in thrilling, high points totaled games? Wait we hate pass-heavy teams with bad defenses now?
Ah… that must be where I’ve been going wrong this whole time!
And we are jumping off Taylor Heincke now because he finally busted, four weeks later than we anticipated but we have now seen enough to know he can’t keep up with the best, right? No, no you’re right that’s a completely fair thing to think…
Ok… weak mental backflips aside…
I mentioned Taylor Heinicke as the chalk play this week because, well… he kinda is.
He’s currently the QB12 on this week’s slate on a PPG basis as well as salary. He’s currently in the highest projected game total of the week (currently 55.5 points set), and as the underdog chasing a team that allows the most DKPPG to quarterbacks (31.1) as well.
Fitting in Tyreek Hill AND Terry McLaurin may be tough to do as they’re both priced above $8000 and $7000 respectively. But you can run it back on the cheap with either Darrel Williams, J.D. McKissic, any of the Chief’s secondary receivers who are all priced under $5000.
Or – bare with me – you could even utilize tight end Ricky Seals-Jones (OPRK 31st) who not only had 8 targets last week but played 82 of 83 offensive snaps last week. For a tight end in a high-scoring game with that opportunity with a $3000 price tag? Why not!
Screen Route
Confucius says: “Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated”…
The last time Dak Prescott played the Patriots, his Cowboys stooped to a 13-9 loss on the road to a Tom Brady team headed towards another Superbowl run.
Now a lot has changed and the Cowboys look a lot different from when Jason Garrett was at the helm to now with Kellen Moore calling an electric game plan, as the Cowboys are now one of the pass heaviest teams. And as a Giants fan, it pains me to say this but at times they are fun to watch – it’s hard not to enjoy some of the games they are in.
But we always say “Bill Bellichick always takes out the oppositions best player”, and in the past, it wasn’t Ezekiel Elliott, who had a sound 100 yards rushing that week, but it was Prescott who was silenced, finishing with 19-for-212 passing with an intercept, with his best receiver being Randall Cobb who went 4-for-86.
Yes, I know that Lamb, Cooper, Schultz, and Pollard are more dangerous than Cobb, Jarwin, Gallup, and Witten – I know this, and how much they have changed.
But what hasn’t changed is the Patriots who have given up the 5th fewest passing yards, the third-fewest passing touchdowns, and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They’re still as solid as ever.
You’re starting Dak – this isn’t revolutionary news – but you’re hoping he goes off – me too – but as the sixth-highest priced quarterback at $7100 I might stay away for one week, and come down to say, Sam Darnold who is 1000 cheaper with a better matchup.
Out Route
Confucious Says: “He who thinks only of number one must remember this number is next to nothing”…
I’d be mad too if a guy I started that has no real competition (healthy at least) in his class at his position became shunned as his team is up 40-plus points, and he barely walked away with 2-for-20 yards total.
Yes, that’s right, in a game that had nearly 1000 yards in it, ‘OBJ’ walked away with 20 total. I mean what are we doing here?
Finally healthy, Beckham has carried on his form with quarterback Baker Mayfield which was… not that great to begin with, was it?
We can do all of the mental gymnastics you want, but you are in heavy denial if you think this pairing has been anything above average since his trade to the Browns a few years back.
I don’t see the Browns outright cutting him when the season is over, I’d be surprised if they did. And while they are contenders this year, trading him mid-season seems like a long shot too.
But at the end of the season? Yeah, his name still has the cache to it, and teams will want to try and acquire him on the cheap so I can see that transpiring for sure.
My point is, there are likely better days ahead for the former prodigy. And if you have that guy in your league who has lost patience with him because things like that which happened against the Chargers isn’t uncommon, then your chance to get him is now – because that buy-low window blew open after that debacle this weekend.
The Go Route
Confucius Says: “Study the past if you would divine the future”…
My guy Bob Van put it simply a few weeks ago – ‘This year’s Robert Tonyan is Dawson Knox’.
Prophetic in his ways at times, he half saw the breakout coming and acknowledges it for what it is – solid performance, after a solid performance – but doesn’t undersell the dangers that are still lay ahead.
Because what has Robert Tonyan done for you this year aside from little to nothing?
So for those riding Dawson Knox now, maximize your selling window where you can. It’s only week six, bye rounds are coming – I get that – but start fielding offers from your league where you can.
But that aside?
In dynasty we are always looking for that breakout and Knox, whose 2020 stats were ok (44-24-288-3) has nearly been surpassed (24-18-264-5), can build on that will 12 games remaining. The guy so far with under 300 receiving yards is already your TE3 for the year.
But who can next year’s breakout, third-year tight end be that you could potentially buy low on now, or find on waivers? How about we start with three names: two that are kinda, somewhat obvious, and one from out nowhere:
If people have been disappointed that Adam Trautman hasn’t lived up to his “expectation” this year you may be in trouble, he could still come with an unreasonable asking price – you still have to do your due diligence and ask, but still, people may be holding onto a late-season run of form.
For me though, Harrison Bryant in Cleveland is the guy I think that takes the biggest leap.
I’d suggest that David Njoku isn’t a Brown at the end of the season, and although Austin Hooper hasn’t quite lived up to the big free-agent contract he signed, Bryant could be the benefactor of not only Njoku leaving, but also Odell Beckham potentially this offseason too.
So, who is the guy from out of nowhere you speak of?
University of Buffalo Quarterback-turned-tight end, Tyree Jackson, who despite not playing a game this year due to being on the injured reserve, did make the Eagles 53-man roster clean.
With Zach Ertz’s future post-2021 in doubt with the NFC East outfit, the Eagles’ secondary receivers behind Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert have all kinda proven to be mediocre-to-average at best. ****Zach Ertz was just traded to Arizona today, an hour after this article was written. I stand by Jackson being a thing towards the end of the year, more so, now that Ertz has moved on.
And while the Eagles will have a stack of draft capital up their sleeve, we already know that a) they won’t know what the hell to do with those picks because they could be the worst team drafting in the NFL, and be, the next Kyle Pitts isn’t looming – Jackson is worth a stash in deep leagues, and a name to keep an eye on as the seems wears on.
Hail Mary
Confucius says: “Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves”…
It’s hard at the best of times to enter in a game, not taking first-team reps, not likely expecting to play, while sitting behind, arguably, one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
It’s a tough ask for a backup quarterback to enter a game and chase a win when the entire gameplay revolves around everyone else BUT them.
Sometimes it half works out, we can go back to last year for example and loom at Marcus Mariota stepping in for Derek Carr and he pulled out a heck of a performance – rarely does it work out well but there are times where it can.
For me, Geno Smith looked… good.
Not “I’m dropping $100 of my FAAB on him good, but good enough to know that DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will probably be fine”.
And that’s all you want, for Smith, to come in with 10 days notice from playing on Thursday night in week five, to have a chance against the Steelers, who have been relatively liberal in sharing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, allowing on average 272 passing yards per game, two passing touchdowns per game, and roughly 21 fantasy points per week to the position also.
I understand that Geno Smith isn’t a guy we will back every week while Russell Wilson is out, but the Steelers are far from this terrifying defense of the past, and he should be streamable in Week 6.
I have this game going over and the seahawks covering the +5. Can they get to 42.5 points, however? I’d want to wait and see where that line falls closer to kick off on Sunday night, but 21 points each? I don’t see why not!
I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @GothamCity_STR podcast out (Linktree) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.
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