Elite TE Brock Bowers: Rare Upside at a Premium Position

TE Brock Bowers – georgia
6’3″ | 243 lbs
Career Stats: 175 rec 2,541 yds 26 TD; 19 rush att 103 yds 5 TD

Brock Bowers has tremendous real-life and fantasy upside for a player with a tight end designation. The only issue for us is, based on the tight end scoring in our dynasty leagues, how high we are comfortably clicking on him in our rookie drafts.

If you are a dynasty manager who does not invest first round rookie picks in tight ends (even in tight end premium leagues), history is generally on your side. For now, your paths to acquiring Bowers will be via startup drafts or best ball.

If, like me, you say, “The type of upside this prospect has presents a positional advantage worth taking a swing on because chasing that upside wins championships, and he is pretty much a wide receiver,” then you’ll spend that valuable capital on him, at least in a few leagues.

However, we are also experiencing a deepening of the pool at the tight end position, a tight-end renaissance of sorts. So, I think we need more conversations about how much value an elite tight end is actually adding these days.

All that said, let’s dive into the profile.

Pros

You’ve probably heard of Brock Bowers by now. He’s “generational,” “elite,” a “freak,” and a “can’t miss” prospect. There is, of course, a lot to like about him, and his ceiling is very high at a premium position.

Bowers was a 4-star recruit to an SEC powerhouse program, and he immediately contributed as a freshman. He has just about everything you’re looking for: athletic, fast for his size, agility and route-running, ball-tracking, hands, catching off-target passes, YAC ability, and forcing missed tackles.

An important part of Bowers’ appeal is that he is also versatile. He can line up just about anywhere in the formation and was even used in the rushing game a bit. He will be labeled “not a tight end, a pass-catcher” or “not a tight end, a weapon,” which are generally accurate descriptions.

Bowers is a bit undersized for the position but is a good enough blocker to get in-line snaps in the NFL. His foundation and technique are good; he just needs to improve his strength/power.

Analytically, Bowers has a very good profile. We don’t have the athletic testing numbers that we can plug into things like HASS and RAS, but he is an early declare with an early breakout age, and he hit almost every production threshold, whether age-adjusted or career. Along with an 8.2 adot, Bowers’s career numbers include 14.5 ypr, 2.64 y/rr, and 8.5 yac/rec. He also put up ryptpa numbers of a good wide receiver prospect (2.23, 1.91, and 2.06). Finally, Bowers is pretty much guaranteed to go in the first round of the NFL Draft, likely the top half of the round at that. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)

Cons

No prospect is perfect, so while Bowers is close, we can point out some minor flaws. The primary criticism of Bowers is his size (and not just because of the photo juxtaposing him with Rob Gronkowski). Bowers weighed in at 243 pounds at the combine but likely played closer to 230-235 at Georgia. We also like our tight ends to be a little taller and have a bigger catch radius. That said, part of the tight end renaissance is that we are seeing smaller players succeeding at the position.

He will not primarily be used in-line, but the weight (and strength) will limit his ceiling as both a blocker and tackle-breaker in the NFL. That concern can be even more impactful if Bowers continues to over-rely on athleticism in his routes relative to how much he uses technique. That last point at least somewhat relates to the amount of Bowers’ targets coming on screens (including 35% of his career catches). Also, while tight ends’ route participation matters much more than their snap share for fantasy, being a competent blocker gets you on the field more downs and, more importantly, in the red zone. Bowers probably has enough blocking prowess at the moment for that not to be a big concern, but we would still like to see some improvement there.

As I noted above, Bowers’s analytical profile is very clean. There isn’t any notable weakness. We’d like a higher career adot (8.2) and year 3 ypr (12.8), but really, just about any criticism of Bowers is nit-picking. (numbers per PFF)

Summary

We know Brock Bowers is an elite tight end prospect. We are justified in being as excited about him as we were about Kyle Pitts and more excited than we were about Dalton Kincaid. Of course, he is my current rookie TE1. I have him ranked 7th overall (assuming a 1.5 tight end premium) in my superflex rookie rankings.

By the way, I recommend you check out this video on Bowers featuring Brett Whitefield and Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points.

Bowers is as close to a lock as almost any other player to be a first-round selection in the NFL Draft. Interesting destinations include the Chargers (pick 5 or after trading back), the Jets (10), Denver (12), Indianapolis (15), Seattle (16), and the Rams (19). If he got past that spot, I’d be shocked. Cincinnati (18) is another, but the signing of Mike Gesicki probably makes it less likely.

However, unlike many other tight end prospects (and some wide receiver ones), Bowers requires particular deployment for success. He’ll need competent and creative coaching to maximize his skill set. I feel like that could happen in all those landing spots.

Strengths

• athleticism and YAC ability
• hands
• versatility

Concerns

• size/strength
• blocking can improve
• technique in route running

2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 1.04-1.07 in a 12-team, superflex, tight end premium league (depending on how high the premium is)

Ideal Role: slot-heavy tight end, “weapon”

Player Comp: Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Dalton Kincaid