DFS NFL FanDuel/DraftKings Lineup Advice Week 1 (9/8/19)
Football is back!! How many times have you read that this week? Probably just about every article you read, I’m sure. I wanted to be original, but, “The game that is played with a ball they call Pigskin, but, in fact, isn’t made of any part of the pig, is back!”, didn’t have the same ring to it.
I’m not going to waste your time with a long intro and give some “Matthew Berry-Esque” soliloquy that somehow relates fantasy football to real life, that’s not why you’re here, in fact, some of have already skipped over this part and are reading my picks at QB.
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| Explosive Play | My top play for the position |
| Deep Threat | A deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings. |
| Hail Mary | Also know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's. |
| Missed Tackle | A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests. |
*note* Prices are based on DraftKings, but most plays will crossover to FanDuel as well
*note* Main slate only
Quarterbacks
Explosive Play | Jameis Winston vs SF $6,600
This game has a 49.5 o/u with a 2.5 point spread, meaning it will be high scoring and close. The 49ers biggest weakness last year was their secondary, ranking 27th in DVOA vs the pass. They were 12th vs the run and the Bucs haven’t been able to run the ball anyway, Winston will air it out a lot. The only concern here is, the 49ers pass rush has vastly improved and the Bucs O-line looked terrible in the preseason.
Deep Threat | Lamar Jackson @ MIA $6,000
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The value for Jackson comes with his legs. He has a high floor based on rush yardage and if his passing has improved even a little bit over last year, he will soon be an elite option at the QB spot in DFS. This game will be a low-scoring affair and it’s the only reason I hesitate on taking Jackson as my cash game QB.
Hail Mary | Kirk Cousins vs ATL $5,500
The Falcons defense should be improved from last year by simply getting healthy, but they won’t be an elite defense overnight. They ranked 22nd in DVOA overall and 29th in DVOA vs the pass. Cousins, while in Washington, was one of the best play-action passing QBs in the league — and that was with one of the worst rushing attacks. Look for them to get back to basics setting up the play-action by establishing the run early.
Missed Tackle | Russell Wilson vs CIN $6,300
This is an easy fade for me. Wilson had games last year where he completed fewer than 15 passes in a game and he had zero rushing TDs. Until I see that change, I won’t have Wilson in my lineups.
Others I like: Carson Wentz $5,700, Cam Newton $6,500
Running Backs
Explosive Play | Christian McCaffrey vs LAR $8,800
Arguably the best player in this game, playing in the game with the highest vegas total, and going against the 27th ranked defense vs the run in DVOA. CMC is game-script proof. If the Panthers are winning, he will get more carries to work the clock, if the Panthers are losing he will get more receptions in an attempt to come back. Vegas currently has this total at 50.5, and now that Cam Newton is back to practicing, that line may go up.
Deep Threat | Kerryon Johnson @ ARI $5,800
Surprisingly, this game sports the third-highest Vegas total on the main slate at 49. This total is likely more about the defenses then it is about the offenses. The Lions want to run the ball and the Cardinals, despite being fourth in DVOA overall, ranked 29th vs the run. Well, that would lead you to believe that this could be a grind it out, slow-paced game until you look at the other side. The Cardinals want to pass — a lot — and the Lions ranked 31st against the pass last year. This game could low-key be an exciting game to watch.
Hail Mary | Matt Breida @ TB $4,000
Anyone that has followed me or watched my podcast, The Armchair Fantasy Show (shameless plug), know that I’m all about Breida this year. Matt Breida will play the Devonta Freeman role in this offense, while Tevin Coleman plays the…Tevin Coleman role. There is no better comp to Tevin Coleman than Tevin Coleman. The Bucs defense couldn’t stop anyone last year. They were dead last in overall DVOA, 30th vs the pass and 31st vs the run. If you tried to be that bad you probably couldn’t do it, that’s how bad they were.
Missed Tackle | Joe Mixon @ SEA $6,700
Injuries to his offensive line, the Seahawks’ defense and the potential blowout factor (Seahawks -9) have me off Mixon this week.
Others I like: Nick Chubb $6,400, Dalvin Cook $6,000, Tony Pollard $4,500
Wide Receivers
Explosive Play | Mike Evans vs SF $7,900
I’m going to have a lot of exposure to this game in all my lineups. Assuming he is healthy, which all indications are that he is, Mike Evans becomes an elite play vs a secondary that has struggled over the last few seasons. The big worry is how good the 49ers’ front 7 looks on paper and how bad the Bucs O-line looked in the preseason. Will Winston have the time he needs to get the ball downfield to Evans?
Deep Threat | Kenny Golladay @ ARI $6,300
Going back to this game, I want to have at least some exposure to the Lions passing game as I think Matthew Stafford has a bounce-back season — I mean, he had a broken back last year, it can’t be worse than that. Marvin Jones might also be a good value pick in this game as well, but the Cardinals are without their No. 1 CB Patrick Peterson, which leave rookie Byron Murphy and Tramaine Brock as their expected starters (per Ourlads.com).
Hail Mary | Zay Jones @ NYJ $3,700
I’ve been taking a lot of flack this offseason for my love of Zay Jones, but hear me out. From Week 10 last year (excluding Week 11 when he got hurt and barely played) Jones had 55 targets over those six games — or 9.2 targets per game. Over a 16-game season at 9.2 targets per game, it would have put him at 146 on the year, the same amount of targets Saints WR Micheal Thomas had last year. Okay, I’m not comparing him to Thomas, I just wanted to point how many targets 9.2 a game is.
Then, this preseason, when Zay Jones and QB Josh Allen were on the field together for the first game, Allen threw 10 total passes — five of them went Jones’ way. It’s a bit of a stretch to play Jones in a low scoring game and playing for a team that wants to run the ball, but Jones is a sneaky volume play with TD upside that no one will see coming.
Missed Tackle | T.Y. Hilton vs LAC $6,600
I’m just going to take the low hanging fruit here. No Andrew Luck. No Hilton.
Others I like: Julio Jones $8,000, Chris Godwin $6,200, Dede Westbrook $4,800
Tight Ends
Explosive Play | George Kittle @ TB $6,600
I’m taking back-to-back TEs from this game. I’m not going to beat a dead horse, but this game has a high total, Bucs can’t play defense, Kittle will lead the team in targets.
Deep Threat | O.J. Howard vs SF $5,000
Dead horse.
Hail Mary | Austin Hooper vs MIN #3,200
Hooper is a sneaky play at TE because everyone views the Vikings as a tough defense, which they are, except vs the TE position. They ranked 30th in DVOA vs the TE position last year, giving up nearly six receptions and 50 yards per game to the position. Even Jimmy Graham, who was terrible last year, had 95 yards receiving against them.
Missed Tackle | Eric Ebron @ LAC $4,100
Taking the low-hanging fruit once again. No Luck. No Ebron.
Others I like: Mark Andrews $3,000
Defense
Explosive Play | Ravens @ MIA $3,800
This is probably the chalk defense this week. Dolphins are selling the farm for draft picks and the last time I checked, draft picks can’t pass block or catch. This game will be ugly for the Dolphins.
Deep Threat | Seahawks vs CIN $3,100
Originally, I had to Bills here as my deep threat… and then Clowney got traded. The Seahawks are at home, the Bengals have injuries to their offensive line, A.J. Green is out…and Andy Dalton is still their QB.
Hail Mary | 49ers @ TB
Okay, this might be my homerism here, but the Bucs offensive line looked horrible in the preseason. I think the Bucs will still score points, but I’m looking for sacks and turnovers. The Niners have a formidable front 7 as long as Nick Bosa is healthy — he is back at practice — and Jameis Winston has been known to throw an interception or four.
Missed Tackle | Vikings vs ATLÂ
This is more about the Falcons offense than it is a detriment to the Vikings defense. Falcons are healthy for the first time since…well, Week 1 last season. Devonta Freeman will bring balance to the force…uh…offense…and Matt Ryan has Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and the aforementioned Austin Hooper.
Others I like: Eagles $3,600
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