Elite Rusher, But Not a Guaranteed Star: QB Jayden Daniels

QB Jayden Daniels – LSU
6’4″ | 210 lbs
Career Stats:

(passing) 1,448 ATT 953 comp 12,739 yds 89 TD

(rushing) 271 att 3,955 yds 34 td

Before I start discussing Jayden Daniels, I will refer you to the profile I wrote for Drake Maye . You can read some important thoughts on rookie quarterbacks in general.

Jayden Daniels was a former 4-star recruit to Arizona State where he played three seasons before transferring to LSU. He flashed early, but inconsistent is a short way to summarize his play there. That’s true for a variety of reasons, including the disastrous Herman Edwards Experiment. After transferring to LSU, he improved over time, to his credit.

Pros

Daniels displayed some shell shock from his Arizona State days in his first campaign in Baton Rouge (2022), and some were even calling for Garrett Nussmeier to take over. Still, he looked better than he did a lot of his time at ASU.

Daniels improved more in 2023 for a few reasons, including LSU using VR technology to help him improve his processing and the further development of wide receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas.

That season ended with 3,811 passing yards, 40 passing TDs (and only 4 interceptions), 1,250 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, and a Heisman award. Daniels was the only player in FBS history to have 350+ passing yards and 200+ rushing yards in a game.

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Daniels has a clean release and generally good accuracy, especially on his impressive deep ball. He no doubt put in work to improve as a passer. Daniels is also a dynamic and prolific rusher and the best dual-threat quarterback in the class. That’s good news for fantasy purposes. Lance Zieriein gave him a prospect score of 6.73, second in the class.

Quarterback is the most difficult position to evaluate, for a myriad of reasons. Accordingly, it is difficult to confidently apply analytical models to the position. That said, there are some good signs for Daniels. He hit some age-adjusted production thresholds in multiple categories, including some in his early career (to help ease our late bloomer concerns) and some in his LSU days. He also checks boxes for career marks at btt% (4.5%), twp% (1.6%), and adjusted comp% (75.5%). (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)

Cons

Opinions are divided on how well Daniels throws over the middle, an important skill in today’s NFL. Only 17% of his passes beyond the line of scrimmage targeted that area. My take is his good production throwing there was at least somewhat buoyed by Nabers, and that Daniels appears to lack sufficient confidence and accuracy over the middle. To be fair, the counterargument is the LSU offense took what they were given to win games (go’s, hitches, etc. – and slot fades to Nabers), and he wasn’t asked to do it much.

Additionally, Daniels is inconsistent with progressions, and while scrambling is good for fantasy, critics argue he takes off too much after one read, maybe two. Per Nate Tice, Daniels’s 14.1% scramble rate was third among 196 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019 – Malik Willis levels. That has to matter for us. If coaches are frustrated enough with that tendency, Daniels won’t be on the field enough to help our fantasy teams.

Among those same 196 quarterbacks, Daniels had the third lowest percentage (50.6%) of pressured dropbacks that resulted in a pass. This means Daniels was often either off on one of his many scrambles or getting sacked. Importantly, his pressure-to-sack rate was not good (24.5% overall, 30.9% without scrambles, per Zachary Kreuger). Historically, that is a sticky stat.

When Daniels does take off, his fearlessness (recklessness?) has infamously gotten him pummeled on Saturdays. When we consider another critique of Daniels, his leaner frame, this becomes even more problematic.

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From an analytical perspective, age (fifth-year player, “late breakout,” turns 24 in December) and weight will stand out right away as shortcomings. People take the age question in different ways. Some don’t care much at all because of the position and/or because, these days, it can mean experience and maturity in a league that is impatient with seasoning young quarterbacks. Others will emphasize that Daniels’s best season by far came in a powerhouse offense when he was older than almost everyone else on the field.

Other blemishes on Daniels’s profile generally derive from his lackluster production at ASU – and even his first year at LSU – including four years of EPA/p marks below 0.47, and three seasons of AY/a at 9.0 or below, QBR at 77.5 or below, and PFF passing grade of 70.7 or below. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)

Summary

Jayden Daniels is a true dual-threat quarterback who will almost assuredly get high real-life draft capital and therefore retain value in superflex dynasty leagues. He will have some serious fantasy upside if he gets better at avoiding big hits and improves with his progressions. That will keep Daniels in good graces, keep him on the field, and sustain drives.

As Adam Harstad reminds us, football is a high-entanglement sport. It is not truly possible to completely isolate a quarterback’s performance from a number of factors that contribute, such as scheme, offensive line, and weapons/supporting cast. That said, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I did not point out that some analysts conclude the LSU scheme and the aforementioned development of talented wide receivers boosted Daniels’s success enough to question his high consensus ranking.

Still, Daniels appears to be a top-3 NFL Draft pick, with a likely selection at second overall to Washington. Even if you are not a fan of OC Kilff Kingsbury, Daniels appears to be a good fit with him. Other possible landing spots include New England (pick 3) or less likely destinations, such as the Giants (6), or a team that trades up, like Minnesota (11). Not knowing what the Giants or New England will do with the rest of their drafts, I’m most comfortable with Washington and Minnesota from that group.

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Daniels is currently my QB3 and is 6th overall in my superflex rookie rankings, in a tier with Maye, Odunze, and Brock Bowers. I may prefer the others in that tier at the current anticipated costs.

The question comes down to whether or not you want to make a bet on this prospect given the fantasy appeal of his rushing and both the positional importance and value retention in a superflex league, despite the legitimate concerns we should have about his profile.

The more I dig into Daniels, the less aggressive I think I will be in targeting him in rookie drafts. I think I might be aligned with Jakob Sanderson, who writes, “I’m by no means writing Daniels off as an IRL option, and am tantalized by his fantasy upside. But if any of the top-eight QBs was to outright bust, Daniels would be my first pick, because he’s the only one whose sample of play includes truly poor football, and whose stretches of good play appear most influenced by his surroundings.”

Given the high-end options outside of quarterback in the first seven picks in a superflex rookie draft, I will have a few diversification shares of Daniels but will either be picking someone else or trading back (or up) more often than not if it looks like I have the Daniels pick as the first round begins to unfold.

Strengths

• general accuracy
• deep ball
• high-end rushing

Concerns

• lean frame
• progressions/bailing too much
• passing over the middle

2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 1.03-1.07 in a superflex tight end premium format

Ideal Role: starting dual-threat QB with high-end upside

Player Comp: Randall Cunningham, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Robert Griffin III