The NFL Will Love Impressive QB Drake Maye – Should You?

qb drake maye – North Carolina
6’4″ | 223 lbs.
Career Stats:

(passing) 951 att 651 comp 7,990 yds 62 td

(rushing) 121 att 1,547 yds 16td

Before I say anything about Drake Maye, I want to underscore that, as much as we try to approach rookie season with “educated guesses” and “informed decisions,” quarterback is the closest thing we have to “it’s a crapshoot” relative to other positions.

So much of a quarterback’s success or failure depends on what’s “between the ears,” coaching, scheme, offensive line, and weapons. A million intricacies affect a quarterback on every individual play, too.

The hit rate on first-round quarterbacks is actually surprisingly low. Sometimes, the failures are mainly the fault of the player; other times, they are primarily the fault of the organization. Almost always, it’s at least a little of both.

And the NFL, which has a clear quarterback evaluation and development problem, is hungry for good quarterback play, so it often overdrafts prospects due to the position’s importance and scarcity. Witness the current steam on JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix, the Kenny Pickett selection in 2022, and Will Levis essentially being a first-round pick last year.

So we must keep all this in mind with Drake Maye or any other rookie quarterback in 2024. In a superflex format, it’s hard not to follow the great quarterback prospect and his high draft capital—and for good reasons, not the least of which is the value insulation of that asset class.

Still, we have to be clear-eyed about the range of outcomes. Mitch Trbuisky and Patrick Mahomes were both first-round draft picks in 2017. Life comes at you fast. Caveat emptor.

Pros

Drake Maye was a three-sport athlete in high school and grew up competing in a family full of other athletes. He is often lauded for his intangibles, such as leadership, competitiveness, aggressiveness, and toughness.

Maye is one of those “can make all the throws” prospects. He has good arm strength and talent and generally good accuracy at all three levels of the field. Maye is a very good pre-snap diagnoser and was allowed to call protections, which many college quarterbacks are not entrusted with—and he was doing so as a redshirt sophomore. He also throws well over the middle, an essential skill in today’s NFL.

Maye’s prototypical NFL size helps him in the pocket and allows him to be physical as a runner. While his athleticism and mobility are good, his rushing production likely won’t translate as well in the NFL. However, he will have enough mobility to buy time, scramble, handle RPO, have the occasional designed run, and make plays at crucial junctures, including on 3rd down and in the red zone. Maye has a tantalizing combination of size, toughness, and athleticism.

Analytically, there are many things to like about Maye’s profile. He won’t turn 22 until August, has the aforementioned NFL size, is an early declare, and seems almost guaranteed to have early first-round draft capital. Maye hit age-adjusted production thresholds for 2022 and 2023 in QBR, epa/p, and ay/a. He also checks boxes for career thresholds in btt%, twp%, and adj comp%. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)

Cons

Maye’s primary wart is inconsistent accuracy, which comes up in many contexts, not just on the run or under pressure. He loses velocity on the run, and several observers have pointed out errors in reading linebackers properly.

Another frequent critique of Maye is inconsistent mechanics requiring refinement, especially his footwork. Sometimes, it’s his front foot; other times, it’s his back one. The latter is where the “drifting” comments have come from.

Nate Tice and Josh Norris argue the drifting is due to having a sense of what’s going on around him and that delivering the ball in a timely manner is more important. Tice expanded on this, noting that while Maye overdoes the drifting at times, it means he is this good now with room to grow; he is a blue chip prospect with imperfect footwork – imagine what he can be soon.

The footwork relates to criticisms of how Maye handles/senses pressure post-snap and makes decisions about when to leave the pocket. Sometimes he stays too long. This can result from foregoing easier throws earlier in the progressions. It leads to bad throws and, importantly, a high pressure-to-sack rate.

That appears to be a sticky stat for quarterbacks. Those who have a high rate in college have a high rate in the NFL. We’ve seen that hurt the development of recent young quarterbacks like Justin Fields and Sam Howell. The good news is it’s not a death knell for fantasy relevance, and his rate is in the neighborhood of Caleb Williams and a good bit better than Jayden Daniels.

Maye’s 2023 performance wasn’t as good as his output in 2022, and more of the warts show up on this past year’s tape than on the prior one. He also didn’t face every good competition in 2023 relative to other top prospects. However, he had worse offensive line play and a worse supporting cast than he did in 2022, all while playing in a new offense.

Other than the sack-to-pressure rate, Maye’s analytical profile is clean. I have not seen any notable concerns.

Summary

Drake Maye is a high-end quarterback prospect who would be a QB1 in many other classes. He arguably had the worst overall situation in 2023 among the top 4 quarterback prospects, and he still performed pretty well.

Maye is currently my QB2 and 4th overall in superflex rookie rankings. He has a good foundation and can develop into a solid starter and fantasy producer.

All indications are he will be among the top five picks in the NFL Draft, maybe 6 at the lowest. The top of the draft could be fun with several trades, so it is hard to predict. Of the plausible landing spots for Maye, I prefer Minnesota (if they trade up) or Washington over New England or the Giants.

I wouldn’t hate it if Las Vegas traded up to get him, but that’s pretty unlikely. Should he go to Denver, another unlikely but possible trade-up candidate, I would be concerned about organizational culture, the rest of the roster, and the temperament and personality of the head coach.

Strengths

• arm strength/talent – “makes all the throws”
• pre-snap processing
• athleticism/mobility
• toughness/physicality

Concerns

• inconsistent accuracy
• needs some mechanics need refinement
• sensing pressure/stays in the pocket too long

2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: top 5 pick in a supeflex, tight end premium format

Ideal Role: starting QB with high upside

Player Comp: Mitch Trubisky, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott