QB Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
2021 Stats: 3,641 passing yards, 12 TD, 17 INT; 334 rushing yards, 2 TD
To say Trevor Lawrence had a rough rookie season would be putting it mildly. Between the first and last games of his debut campaign (15 games), he never had multiple passing touchdowns in a game with seven touchdowns and 14 interceptions over that stretch. His rushing production was fine, but that couldn’t cover for everything that went against the 2021 No. 1 overall pick last year.
The most notable change for Lawrence is Doug Pederson coming in as head coach to replace Urban Meyer. Pederson made Carson Wentz into an MVP candidate in his second season, which as time goes on becomes a more notable accomplishment. The Jaguars also made a concerted effort to upgrade Lawrence’s supporting cast, signing Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram. The return of running back Travis Etienne, Lawrence’s college teammate at Clemson who missed his entire rookie season last year, is notable too. Incumbents Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, Laquon Treadwell and Jamal Agnew give the receiving corps depth. Brandon Scherff is coming in as an upgrade at right guard.
Lawrence was top-10 in the league in pass attempts last season with 602. In Pederson’s five seasons as Eagles’ head coach, they finished outside the top-10 in pass attempts once. Jacksonville’s defense should be better this year, but how much is the question. Negative game scripts won’t be going away, and the schedule does not look especially daunting.
Things can’t get any worse than they were for Lawrence last year. He has a more credible head coach and coaching staff, and better talent around him. A full breakout step into the top tier of signal callers, in real or fantasy terms, is likely to have to wait a year. But 2022 will be a big step in the right direction.
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Projection: 3,966 passing yards, 26 TD, 14 INT, 350 rushing yards, 4 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 45%
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