Welcome to the Week 11 Preview! We will cover every game for the upcoming weekend and find the best matchups and the ones to avoid! We have some insanely fun games this week and I am looking forward to this DFS main slate and the single-game slates in prime time. Let’s jump into it!
Titans at Colts
This will be one of my favorite games to target. It doesn’t have the flashiest names, but it has serious shootout potential. The Titans are a solid defensive unit, but the Colts offensive line hasn’t given up a sack in over a month. Andrew Luck is slinging the ball as if his shoulder was never injured. I love T.Y. Hilton to bounce back in this one. The Titans relegated Malcolm Butler to slot duties and put A’Doree Jackson on the outside, but Hilton has moved all over the field. He’ll face Butler and have a plus matchup for much of the game. I don’t have a strong stance on any of the Colts tight ends. Mo Alie-Cox out-snapped Eric Ebron. Doyle out-snapped them both. Yet their production was reversed. Marlon Mack didn’t get much going on the ground, but they should be able to run much easier against the Titans.
Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis flashed some chemistry and looked like they could be a franchise duo. I love Davis again this week, as the Colts don’t have much talent at cornerback. Dion Lewis out-touched Derrick Henry 22-11, so it’s clear who the lead back is. Buy Lewis low.
Buccaneers at Giants
The Giants protected Eli Manning and he put together a nice game. The Bucs are bottom in the league in pass rush, so Manning should have another solid showing. I am more interested in Saquon Barkley with the Bucs linebackers out. They are down Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David. Barkley will dominate their replacements in the passing game. Sterling Shepard bailed out fantasy gamers with a short touchdown late last week, but his usage was disappointing. I expect a nice bounce-back, as the Bucs are terrible against slot weapons.
The Giants still are not a good defensive team. Their two picks last week came on highly-random deflected passes. They honestly should not have won and it only hurt their draft stock next season. I think the Bucs are going to shred this defense. After failing miserably, Dirk Koetter should hand play-calling back to Todd Monken and let him go full DGAF mode with Ryan Fitzpatrick. I love Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson.
Steelers at Jaguars
I am very excited for this rematch. These teams have developed a little rivalry this past season with the Jags taking out the Steelers twice last year. My money would be on the Steelers winning this one, but this game could go either way.
The Jags are getting back A.J. Bouye this week, so their secondary will be at full strength. I’m still comfortably playing all my Steelers weapons, as both Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster shredded the Jags in the playoffs. My one concern is starting Ben Roethlisberger. This is a road game that isn’t in prime time. He usually struggles.
Donte Moncrief had nearly 100 yards and a score last week, but it was Dede Westbrook that led the team with 10 targets. The Steelers are weaker in the slot, so he might be a solid option in this game. I’m fully confident in Leonard Fournette after his 20+ touch two-touchdown game last week. He was getting work in the passing game and the Jags want the offense to run through him. James O’Shaughnessy could be a sneaky TE streamer. Not the most confident play, but he could see respectable targets.
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Panthers at Lions
Darius Slay missed last week and the Lions got abused in the passing game. So far, he hasn’t logged a full practice. If he misses, I’m all in on Devin Funchess. Besides him, the Lions don’t generate pressure and they can’t cover pass-catching running backs. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey are in solid spots, and McCaffrey has finally started scoring touchdowns. He has seven in his last three games and should continue his dominance.
Marvin Jones is highly questionable in this game. This would mean even more targets for Kenny Golladay, who is fresh off of a 13 target game. The offense has fallen apart without Golden Tate, but Golladay has performed when fed. The Panthers are middle of the pack against running backs in terms of fantasy points allowed. Kerryon Johnsons’ volume took a hit with Theo Riddick back, but he flashed touchdown upside. He could still be a solid RB2 in this one.
Cowboys at Falcons
Everyone is in love with Ezekiel Elliott in this game, but I’m a little hesitant. The Falcons should be getting Deion Jones back, their athletic, side-to-side middle linebacker. He should have an immediate impact. The good news for the Cowboys is that their offense is highly concentrated between Elliot and Amari Cooper. All of their production will come from those two guys and Dak Prescott, so fantasy points should be relatively easy to predict.
A week after emphasizing Tevin Coleman in the passing game, the Falcons squandered a perfect opportunity to do it again against the Browns. The Cowboys linebackers are excellent, so this may be a difficult spot even with passing work for Coleman. Julio Jones will be shadowed by Byron Jones, the Cowboys standout corner. I think this could be another Calvin Ridley boom week. He’ll be facing Chidobe Awuzie, an athletic young corner who has struggled opposite Jones.
Bengals at Ravens
There still isn’t any clarity on the QB situation for the Ravens, but I’m going to operate as if Lamar Jackson is starting. It really doesn’t make any sense to not get your first-round QB of the future as much work as possible. Jackson would slide in as a low-end QB1 but his weapons would be hurt. He was a deep passer in college and his few balls that he has thrown in the pros go an average of 12.5 yards in the air. This should help John Brown, who I’m expecting to bounce back. I also like Alex Collins, especially after the Bengals just got annihilated by the Saints backs on the ground.
The Bengals are just terrible on offense now. A.J. Green took so much attention away from Tyler Boyd that he is getting exposed now. Boyd is a WR2 for me. He has a solid matchup against Tavon Young, but he could easily get a safety sitting on top without any other threat in this offense. Joe Mixon is in a tough matchup but should be able to overcome it with volume. They need to get him involved in the passing game if they want to stand a chance.
Texans at Redskins
The Redskins are a fraudulent team. They are 27th in points for per game and their defense somehow plays better on the road than at home. I think the Texans will just dominate them in every phase of the game. DeAndre Hopkins is going to see a massive target share again and Josh Norman is a fraud #1CB. I love him and Deshaun Watson as a DFS stack.
I hate that Redskins fans think that Alex Smith is an upgrade over Kirk Cousins because he’s a “winner”. Congrats on getting annihilated in the Wild Card while Smith throws for 147 yards checking down to his running backs every play. The Texans are dominant against the run, so I’m not expecting much from Adrian Peterson. Texans safety Kareem Jackson has covered up a lot of the inefficiencies at the CB position. He has been balling out and I expect him to cap any upside in the Redskins offense.
Raiders at Cardinals
I think the Cardinals are going to abuse the Raiders on the ground with David Johnson. He has seen a resurgence in the last two weeks and the Raiders have given up on the year. Ricky Seals-Jones is my favorite punt play at TE this week. He is top-10 in target share and air yards per target on the year. He also just saw nine targets last week and the Raiders are bad.
Speaking of the Raiders are bad, I’m not playing a single Raider in fantasy.
Broncos at Chargers
Remember when I said that Melvin Gordon would be a top-3 running back? It’s happening. I expect him to keep trucking along in a positive game script. I don’t think we can really bank on any other Chargers assets. Keenan Allen will be against Chris Harris for most of the game. The Charges outside receivers just hurt each other’s target shares. Philip Rivers probably won’t throw it more than 22 times. None of it really stands out.
The Broncos offense is going to run through Emmanuel Sanders and Philip Lindsay. Sanders runs a lot out of the slot, and Chargers slot CB Desmond King has been PFF’s highest graded CB on the year. He’ll be able to overcome the matchup with volume, but his upside is capped by this secondary. Lindsay should have a nice ground game, but he is off the field on 3rd down for Devontae Booker. If he isn’t getting that passing game work then he’ll never see his full upside.
Eagles at Saints
The Saints are nine-point home favorites in this game, so I’m going to lean on the Saints running backs for fantasy. Ezekiel Elliott had an incredibly efficient game last week in all phases, so the Eagles are definitely beatable on the ground and through the air. Ronald Darby was also lost for the year with an ACL, so Michael Thomas is in another prime spot at home.
The Eagles didn’t trust Golden Tate, but that should change with another week in the offense. If he steps into a more prominent role as I believe, he should face P.J. Williams in the slot. Alshon Jeffery will be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, so I’m fading him. This should be another big Zach Ertz game. Josh Adams is a sneaky RB play as well. He has 12 missed tackles on just 20 rushes and will get more work going forward.
Vikings at Bears
Anthony Miller is breaking out all over the place. The Vikings are blowing slot coverage every game, so Miller will continue his solid rookie season. I also like Trey Burton in this game, as he should see targets with Allen Robinson getting shadowed by Xavier Rhodes. Mitchell Trubisky has seen insane rushing numbers. He has a strong floor and a high ceiling.
The Vikings don’t have good matchups, but I’m banking on Stefon Diggs. Adam Thielen hasn’t played well against the Bears historically, but he also hasn’t seen this kind of target share historically. Dalvin Cook looked healthy and explosive, so I’m definitely rolling with him again.
Chiefs at Rams
Play everyone. These teams have bad defenses and explosive offenses.
Well, that’s it for this week! Thank you so much for reading and I hope I helped you all with your lineups. If you have any questions or comments, let me know on Twitter! See you next week.
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