Last week was brutal. I lost by one point in my big money league because I started Jermaine Kearse. Zero catches on two targets. I still think it was a good play, but that’s just how fantasy football goes sometimes. I’m very excited about this week though. We have the Chiefs back on the main slate. We have explosive offenses going against bad defenses. And we have a rematch of the Saints and Vikings. Tons of fantasy points, tons of fun. Let’s jump into it.
Ravens at Panthers
Cam Newton struggled against the Eagles front in the first half and then turned it up in the second half. Elite pass rush is clearly the way to slow him down, but Newton may just be matchup proof. The Ravens did do an excellent job at limiting Alvin Kamara until a two-yard rushing touchdown last week, so Christian McCaffrey will have his work cut out for him. Jimmy Smith had played at an elite level until Michael Thomas took him to school last week. He has the size to match up with physical receivers like Thomas but he does get outmanned by solid route running. Bad news for Devin Funchess is that he has the size of Thomas, but not the nuance. He will likely struggle against Smith. The Ravens are generally solid against tight ends, but targets will likely funnel to Greg Olsen with how solid the Ravens exterior corners have played.
After nine turnovers in their first four games, the Panthers defense has forced just one in the past two weeks. Flacco is a solid play this week, as is John Brown. Brown is a fringe WR1 seeing a massive 1044-yard total target distance per PlayerProfiler.com, second among wide receivers. Michael Crabtree saw shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore last week and will likely see the same from James Bradberry. Bradberry is a solid-framed corner that matches up well with Crabtree. None of the Raven’s four tight ends have stood out and they have a tough matchup against Luke Keuchley.
Broncos at Chiefs
Phillip Lindsay reminds me of Alvin Kamara. That is quite bold to say and probably ridiculous to some, but he is an explosive player that has been one of the most efficient backs on minimal touches. We will finally see him unleashed with Royce Freeman’s ankle sprain, and I can’t wait to play him in DFS. Chiefs slot corner Kendall Fuller is one of the only bright spots on the defense, so Emmanuel Sanders has a tougher matchup than most think. Demaryius Thomas and even Courtland Sutton are in play, as they should be facing plenty of negative game script.
Every Chief has a plus matchup. Kareem Hunt had his first explosive game against the Broncos in week 4. Travis Kelce has averaged over 8 receptions and over 120 yards over his last four games against the Broncos. Sammy Watkins seems to play better at home than on the road, and the Broncos are much weaker on the exterior. He is a solid WR2 play. Tyreek Hill always has the most upside of any pass catcher in the NFL. And if we like all of his weapons, Patrick Mahomes is obviously the best quarterback play out there.
Browns at Steelers
Le’Veon Bell ain’t coming back. The Steelers shouldn’t want him back either. They would essentially be paying him almost a million a week to split carries with Conner, who has been more elusive and explosive than Bell has since 2015. Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster are both top-10 receiver plays. I also love Vance McDonald as a streamer and cheap DFS piece. He has been dominant after the catch and the Browns just gave up 8/80 against Bucs tight ends.
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Nick Chubb stepped right into Carlos Hyde’s role, collecting 18 rushes for 80 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers have been a top-5 run defense team, but Chubb sees volume and goal-line work, which could allow him to see RB2 numbers anyway. The Steelers are weakest in the slot, setting up Jarvis Landry for another solid game. They also give up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, so David Njoku should keep his hot streak going this week.
Seahawks at Lions
The Lions have finally seen what their rookie Kerryon Johnson can do. I don’t see how a coach can go back to a committee after Johnson’s performance on the ground and through the air. The Seahawks have been surprisingly average on defense this season, and a big part of it is the emergence of Frank Clark. I figured they would have fallen apart with Earl Thomas out, but they are holding up. I still like the Lions receivers in this game. They all see roughly 20 percent of the targets, but Golden Tate has the best matchup in the slot against Justin Coleman. The exterior corners are long and athletic, theoretically matchup up well with Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. I have Stafford as a fringe QB1.
Russell Wilson is last in the NFL in pass attempts. The coaching staff wants to establish the run and take the ball out of his hands, which is inherently stupid and is terrible for fantasy football. The Lions did trade for Damon Harrison to shore up their leaky defensive line that is ceding over 6.0 yards per carry, but it’s uncertain whether he’ll play this week. If he doesn’t go, then Chris Carson is a solid play. Doug Baldwin is looking healthy. He plays enough out of the slot to avoid Darius Slay and should be a solid WR2.
Buccaneers at Bengals
This game should feature massive scoring from both sides. Historically, Jameis Winston plays better on the road than at home, and the Bengals were just lit up in primetime. He has been a top-5 scorer in his first two starts this year. DeSean Jackson ran wide open multiple times and he and Winston just couldn’t seem to connect. This connection will work itself out soon and you want to be in on it when it finally clicks. Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries continue to steal snaps and targets from each other. The offense is so much more explosive with Godwin in there, so I really don’t know why this is a competition. Peyton Barber dropped a screen pass, pretended he didn’t just to run out the play and then hurt his ankle getting tackled on the dead play. The fantasy gods just don’t want him to be a starter. Ronald Jones didn’t look good and neither did Jaquizz Rodgers, who took most of the snaps when Barber didn’t return last week.
Andy Dalton flopped on the road in primetime again. We need him to play more of these home 1p.m. games. The Bucs defense is dreadful and they just lost two linebackers to ACLs. He’s a solid streamer this week. Because of those injuries, Joe Mixon is a top play for me. His workload has been surprisingly limited, especially with Giovanni Bernard out, but I expect a full 20+ touches in this one. Tyler Boyd has a terrific matchup in the slot against M.J. Stewart (who?). He’s a solid WR2. It’s hard to go back to C.J. Uzomah after his two target game last week, but he did catch a touchdown.
Jets at Bears
Last week I touted Jermaine Kearse and he received two targets and caught zero. Guess who I’m touting this week? That’s right, Robby Anderson. The Bears struggle against explosive slot guys. Anderson plays 20 percent out of the slot and is very, very fast. He might be banged up, in which case I would go back to my Kearse tout. You can’t rely on Sam Darnold here and the running game is a mess with Bilal Powell on IR. Trenton Cannon would be the easy replacement, but he is just a dart throw.
The Jets have actually been worse than the Bears at guarding the slot. Buster Skrine has given up at least 16 fantasy points to slot receivers in every game that he played more than 20 percent of the snaps. He has dealt with a concussion, and his replacement, Parry Nickerson, has somehow been worse. This sets up Anthony Miller as a cheap play, as he is the primary slot receiver for the Bears. Allen Robinson reinjured his groin and may miss the game, which would make Taylor Gabriel the primary outside receiver. He is more of a situational deep threat and would have to face Morris Claiborne, who has been solid in coverage. Trey Burton is a low-end TE starter for me. The Jets have given up the fewest receptions and yards to tight ends on the year. Mitchell Trubisky is still young, but he might be an elite fantasy option. He has sneaky athleticism and a smart coach.
Redskins at Giants
The Giants are doing a great job at honoring Eli Manning while simultaneously tanking. This week the Redskins pass rush will tee-off on him and it’ll be brutal to watch. They are wasting Odell Beckham’s prime years and they deserve to lose. Saquon Barkley has been the most consistent piece on this offense. He hasn’t dipped below 20 fantasy points and has close to the highest upside among running backs. Josh Norman and co. literally got abused by Michael Thomas and the Saints two weeks ago that they cried to the media that they were being bullied. Not a good look for the “tough guy” corner of the league. Beckham should torch them if Manning gives him a chance.
The Redskins have very limited weaponry, but it looks like Chris Thompson will be back for this one. The offense usually runs through him, but I doubt they want to feed him too much his first game back from injury. The Giants traded Eli Apple to the Saints and Jamison Crowder continues to miss time. Slot receiver Maurice Harris hasn’t produced yet, but he has a good matchup and should see decent volume as a cheap DFS play. Jordan Reed hasn’t had a boom week yet, and this might be the spot. Teammates are banged up, Giants are clearly tanking, and Vernon Davis literally did not run a route last week.
Colts at Raiders
The Lord giveth, and the Lord taketh away. Marlon Mack exploded last week and then injured his ankle in practice. It looks like we’re going back to Nyhiem Hines as a volume scat back. Andrew Luck is dominating and nobody talks about it. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 6/7 games and has thrown four touchdowns in three separate games. Ridiculous. He is a top-5 QB for me this week. T.Y. Hilton came back and exceeded expectations in a difficult matchup with Tre White. He should be even better this week. Jack Doyle is coming back from a hip injury that has sidelined him for six weeks. He’ll instantly steal targets from Eric Ebron, but Ebron has proved himself as an explosive piece of the offense and will command plenty of looks.
With Amari Cooper gone, targets could go outside to Martavis Bryant. The Colts struggle to cover the deep ball on early downs, so the Raiders could take advantage of his speed in those situations. With Marshawn Lynch on IR, Jalen Richard should step into a bigger role. The Colts already give up the second-most receptions to running backs, so Richard should be busy this week. Jared Cook’s volume has tapered off, but he is still a solid TE starter. It really doesn’t take much to be fantasy relevant these days.
49ers at Cardinals
Another toilet bowl matchup here. I have all the faith in the world in new OC Byron Leftwich. David Johnson’s usage should improve, but I would want to see it before I go all in on him. Josh Rosen picked up a toe injury last week, but I’m going to assume he plays. No, I don’t want to play him, but his presence does help guys like Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. Kirk will be on the outside and it looks like Richard Sherman won’t play again. He could be a decent desperation play.
I relied on C.J. Beathard last week and I got burned for it. Negative game script can be good for quarterbacks, but if it is too negative then the pass rush just has a field day. Raheem Mostert will be the incumbent starter with Matt Breida out. The Cardinals give up a lot of fantasy points to running backs, but that is largely due to game flow. I don’t see the 49ers jumping out to a massive lead, so Mostert isn’t really a guy I’m heavily betting on. Marquise Goodwin is very fast and Patrick Peterson continues to play zone on one side of the field. He recently had a meeting with ownership, so maybe his role will change back to shadowing top receivers. Until we see that out there, we can still roll top receivers against this team. George Kittle is a top-tier tight end. He’s just so athletic and elusive after the catch.
Packers at Rams
This game has a massive total and with good reason. These offenses have been killing it and the defenses are pretty much nowhere to be found. For the Rams, I’m banking on Brandin Cooks to be the lead guy. The Packers have struggled with speed on the outside. Cooper Kupp is doubtful for this week, so Robert Woods will play in the slot again. He’ll be up against Jaire Alexander, who has been solid in coverage. I think this team is matchup proof regardless.
The Packers should be getting back Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. This really hurts Davante Adams, who has been thriving in his high-volume role with them out. He’s still a solid WR1, but his target volume will be limited. We can keep hoping for Aaron Jones to get all the work, but it just won’t happen. He’s going to get 12-15 touches every week and he’ll need to score a touchdown to be a fantasy starter. Jimmy Graham’s targets will take a hit as well. He saw 20 over the past two weeks and turned them into two top-6 performances. This won’t continue, and he isn’t seeing many red zone targets so a touchdown would be a surprise.
Saints at Vikings
The Saints have a revenge opportunity and they likely won’t take advantage of it. Recently acquired CB Eli Apple will be asked to cover Adam Thielen. I cried a little writing that. Stefon Diggs will likely be covered by Marshon Lattimore with Thielen staying on the inside. Diggs and Thielen have been dominating red zone targets as well, so Kyle Rudolph will be a risky play. Latavius Murray will start again and he will be running into a brick wall. Saints ceding the lowest yards per carry to running backs in the NFL.
Xavier Rhodes will likely miss this game, setting Michael Thomas up as a dominant play. Tre’Quan Smith is more of a risky guy. He’ll be running deep routes against Trae Waynes, who has 4.3 speed. He also allowed a passer rating of 0.0 last week. Alvin Kamara runs best behind the center and right guard. Vikings give up the most yards per carry to the center and right guard. I think Kamara will get the most work in this one and Mark Ingram will take a backseat. This game will be a massive shootout and will be a fun DFS single game to attack.
Patriots at Bills
How does this game get on primetime? Derek Anderson is somehow worse than Nathan Peterman. LeSean McCoy is banged up. The receivers are an embarrassment. This game is going to be brutal to watch.
Josh Gordon will likely see shadow coverage from Tre White, but he just got worked by T.Y. Hilton. Gordon is essentially a full-time player and is seeing good volume in this offense. Rob Gronkowski is supposed to suit up in this game. He had 14 catches for 214 yards and a touchdown in two games against the Bills last year. James White will continue to be an RB1 with Sony Michel out. His rushing volume isn’t high, but he has the most targets among running backs, the second-most receptions, and the second-most receiving yards. Julian Edelman is averaging eight targets per game and will have the best matchup of the Patriots weapons this week. Fire him up.
As always, thank you for reading! Be sure to follow me on Twitter to yell at me when things go wrong. I always love a nice back and forth. Best of luck, everyone!
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