Fantasy Football Week 9 Preview

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Week 9 Preview!  I will cover every game this weekend and give my thoughts on how everything will shake out.  We have a nice balance of exciting games and absolute clunkers, so let’s jump right in and see where the fantasy value is at!

Falcons at Redskins

Matt Ryan is averaging only 11 fantasy points in road games this year.  The Redskins have 25 sacks on the year and allow the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL.  Tevin Coleman received 13 touches to Ito Smith’s 9 in their last game. Couple that split backfield with the fact that Washington is giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the year and you have a situation to avoid.  This should be a Julio Jones game.

The Redskins offense has lacked any explosiveness in the passing game, but old man Adrian Peterson is getting it done on the ground.  Coming off of a massive game in Week 8, he’s set up for another great outing against the Falcons. They are the worst team against running backs in PPR points per game and it looks like Chris Thompson is nowhere near 100 percent.  I like Jordan Reed as well. He has seen a 27 percent target share over the past three weeks and the Falcons secondary doesn’t have the safety play to match up with him. I find it hard to recommend Alex Smith as a streamer, but Atlanta has allowed 20 fantasy points to quarterbacks in 5/7 weeks.

Lions at Vikings

Golden Tate’s trade raises some serious questions about this Lions offense.  Will they continue to run 11 personnel at a high rate? Will Kenny Golladay or Marvin Jones take any of the slot work?  Is this just going to be a Kerryon Johnson offense? No matter the answers, I still question this trade for the Lions. This bumps up both Golladay and Jones in a solid matchup.  Matthew Stafford isn’t a top play for me, as he just lost his most targeted receiver and he is on the road against a defense that limited Drew Brees to under 200 passing yards.

Damon Harrison joined the Lions defense and it still didn’t stop them from giving up 100 yards to Chris Carson last week.  Latavius Murray has posted over 20 fantasy points in three straight games. Stefon Diggs suffered a rib injury late in the game, but I would be shocked if he didn’t play.  Laquon Treadwell would slide into his role on the outside with Adam Thielen still dominating slot work. Thielen would be the only guy to avoid Darius Slay, so he’s still a top-2 WR play.  The Lions haven’t generated pressure all year, so Kirk Cousins is a viable QB.

Steelers at Ravens

I think this is going to be a classic AFC North grudge match.  These teams will take turns putting together 30-yard drives and punting back and forth.  The Ravens are a dominant run defense, so I’m fading James Conner. Antonio Brown will be matched up with the big-bodied Jimmy Smith.  Juju Smith-Schuster has the best matchup in the slot, but Ben Roethlisberger struggles on the road in 1 p.m. games. The Ravens are weak against tight ends, but Jesse James and Vance McDonald steal snaps and targets from each other.  It’s just a difficult game to project.

The Steelers have also limited opposing running backs, so I would have a hard time playing either of the Ravens’ one-dimensional backs.  John Brown has the best matchup and I’m playing him everywhere I can. Flacco is a solid streamer, and I wouldn’t mind playing the Ravens defense in DFS.  They have a good pass rush, solid corners, and they stop the run. I could easily see multiple turnovers and a touchdown.

Chiefs at Browns

Tyreek Hill produces better on the road than at home.  Everyone will be on Sammy Watkins after his explosion last week, but Hill is in a much better spot playing out of the slot.  Really, just play all of the Chiefs.

We really don’t know what this Browns offense will look like under new OC Freddie Kitchens, but we do know that he was the running backs coach and he is a Bruce Arians disciple.  This could be good news for Duke Johnson, and he could have elevated snaps from negative game script. Kendall Fuller is the best corner on the Chiefs and he plays the slot. Jarvis Landry has performed better as of late, but he has the worst matchup in this one.  I’m back on David Njoku after his zero-point outing last week. Chiefs give up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Jets at Dolphins

There isn’t much in this game that excites me.  Sam Darnold is turnover prone and his weapons are depleted.  The Dolphins defense could be a viable streamer, but Brock Osweiler could easily throw multiple picks and put the team in a terrible spot.  The Dolphins also have limited weapons even with the reemergence of DeVante Parker, but he’ll be facing Morris Claiborne on the outside and has given up a 58.7 passer rating in his coverage.  Danny Amendola is actually an excellent play in the slot. He’s posted at least 13 fantasy points in three straight games.

Bears at Bills

Another very unexciting game.  I’m not touching any of the Bills.  Jordan Howard has received more and more work and should be in the red zone often.  Tarik Cohen received single-digit touches for the first time in three weeks. This was surprising given the competitive nature of last weeks game.  Anthony Miller received another seven targets and scored a touchdown last week out of the slot. He could get shadowed by Tre White and the Bears could throw the ball 15 times in this game, so that’s an easy fade for me.  

Buccaneers at Panthers

This is one of the more fantasy-friendly games this weekend.  We’re back on Fitzmagic. The biggest discrepancy between him and Jameis Winston (besides turnovers) is his efficiency on downfield throws.  This improves DeSean Jackson’s outlook tremendously. He’s reasonably cheap in DFS and this game should shootout. Mike Evans is banged up with a knee injury, but he should be good to go.  Cameron Brate didn’t do anything in the first four games with Ryan Fitzpatrick, so O.J. Howard is the play.

I love Cam Newton and Greg Olsen.  The Bucs give up the most tight end points per game and Olsen has looked fully healthy.  I’m also a big fan of D.J. Moore. He played his season-high in snaps last week and continues to get more incorporated in the offense.  The Bucs are very weak against the slot, setting him up as a nice plug and play receiver for bye weeks. Christian McCaffrey is also taking every backfield snap and is finally getting into the end zone.  

Chargers at Seahawks

The Seahawks are a very lucky team.  Russell Wilson is averaging fewer than 20 throws over his last three games but is averaging a league-high 11.3 percent touchdown rate on the season.  That is incredibly unsustainable. They are simply running the ball too much and need to ramp up his throws into the 30s. Once they fall to the other side of variance, this team will struggle and running the ball won’t put points on the board.  This is a game where they should be able to exploit the Chargers’ weak linebackers. Chris Carson is in line for a solid workload and this game should be close scoring. Doug Baldwin will be up against Desmond King, who has graded out as a top corner in the slot.  He isn’t seeing the volume that we want, so he is a risky play.

Keenan Allen should see a late-season resurgence like last season.  It should start this week with a matchup against Justin Coleman. Melvin Gordon is an elite play with his receiving game usage and goal-line role.  Just hope his hammy doesn’t flare up. Tyrell and Mike Williams have poor matchups on the outside. The Seahawks have long, big-bodied corners that match up well with them.  

Texans at Broncos

I absolutely hated the Texans trade for Demaryius Thomas.  They lost their field stretcher that opened up intermediate routes for DeAndre Hopkins and Keke Coutee, so they replace him with an old, washed possession receiver that hasn’t been explosive in years.  They could have just signed Dez Bryant and gotten the same result and kept their fourth rounder. Hopkins will see his ridiculous 2017 target share from now on, and Bradley Roby hasn’t been great for the Broncos.  Lamar Miller has shown RB2 upside the past few weeks, but the loss of Fuller will lead to more safeties playing in the box instead of deep. Deshaun Watson didn’t break out last year until he had Fuller back from injury.  I think this hurts him a lot.

Courtland Sutton will step into a full-time role on this offense.  He doesn’t have the best matchup to start, but he’ll see great volume and red zone work.  Phillip Lindsay should see another heavy workload with Royce Freeman likely out again. The Texans are a stout run defense, so I’m not expecting too much from him.  

Rams at Saints

Guess who was the NFC defensive player of the week.  I’ll give you a hint, he’s the worst corner in the league.  That’s right, P.J. Williams lucked into a pick-six and a forced fumble despite giving up over 100 yards to Adam Thielen.  Cooper Kupp is healthy and should be good to go against Williams in the slot. Todd Gurley will have his toughest matchup of the season against the Saints.  He might only score 25 points instead of his usual 35 this week. I like the speed of Brandin Cooks indoors on the turf of the Superdome. Revenge game?

Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are in the mid-7000s on DraftKings.  This game has a 60 point total and those are the easiest plays I’ve ever seen.  Drew Brees is lights out at home and this game will be incredibly high-scoring. His tackles both grade out as top-5 guys, so the Rams pass rush shouldn’t scare too many people off.  I’m taking a shot on Tre’Quan Smith as well.

Packers at Patriots

Speed is the killer of the Patriots.  The best players to target in this game are Aaron Jones and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  Hightower will miss this game and Jones should get more passing game work with the recent banishment of Ty Montgomery.  Davante Adams will be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore, so Jimmy Graham might be the best red zone option for Aaron Rodgers. That could be a solid stack if you’re playing single game DFS slates.

The Patriots punished Josh Gordon for his tardiness by starting him in the game and playing him for 91 percent of the snaps.  They know he is a dynamic threat and a key cog of the offense. James White continues to lead the Patriots in targets and receptions each week.  He isn’t picking up too much rushing volume with Sony Michel out, but he is still producing RB1 numbers. Rob Gronkowski doesn’t look healthy, but the Packers just traded away Haha Clinton-Dix.  He has been used as a tight end stopper, so it’ll be interesting to see how they’ll try to handle Gronk.

Titans at Cowboys

The Cowboys have a sneaky good defense, but the secret might be out.  Byron Jones is grading out as PFF’s top cornerback on the year, the linebacker core is looking like the best in the league even when Sean Lee is out, and the pass rush is dominant.  Marcus Mariota will throw multiple interceptions in this game and take a monster number of sacks. This is going to be an Ezekiel Elliot and defense game. I don’t see Amari Cooper doing anything in his first game as a Cowboy.  

 

Thank you so much for reading!  Be sure to follow me on Twitter to roast me for my analysis that goes wrong.  See you guys next week!

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