It’s @TheBLeagueSays here with this week’s ‘Game Plan, where I give you plays to make for seasonal and daily roster construction, prop bets, and dynasty evaluations. Before you make any start and sit decisions this weekend make sure you check out our weekly rankings also.
“It is the quality of one’s convictions that determines success, not the number of followers…” – Remus Lupin
Okay…
Where’s the anti-Joe Mixon crowd at now?
Where are you at?
He got to the bye week unharmed, and looks the goods moving forward, what’s your new problem with him moving forward?
Come on. Stand up, don’t be shy.
Grab the flag you planted in deep and start waiving that sucker about where we can all see you.
Own your shit now, do it!
No?
Yeah…
Didn’t think so.
Joe Mixon has slapped this year, and his recent form stands up against the best of the league, including 44 total points in his last two games. His weekly average and total points have him as the RB8, while playing one less game than everyone ahead of him – Derrick Henry aside.
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Amongst running backs he has accumulated the fourth-most rush attempts, eighth-most rushing yards, tied for fourth-most rushing touchdowns, ninth-most rushing yards per game – along with about three targets on average per game?
Yeah, nah, he’s no good…
This week he gets the Raiders who have been amongst the muck over the past… well, the past few months it seems and while everyone is either coming up to the Christian McCaffrey’s and Jonathan Taylor’s (which I get) or coming down in price to the A.J.Dillon’s and David Montgomery’s – I have a gut feeling that Mixon will be low rostered because of the options either side of him.
I think he is the top pivot play for running backs that no one will be on this week.
“Reading? I didn’t know you could read…” – Draco Malfoy
Yes, you read that correctly, currently, the L.A. Rams are on a two-game losing streak, while staying in second in their division (in which they are 1-2 against division rivals) giving up the chance to jump the Arizona Cardinals who copped a hiding from Carolina last week.
So two losses on the bounce with a bye week this week… but their future?
In their month ahead they get Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals who beat them this year already, and Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.
And Jacksonville is in there too somewhere. No one cares about them still, right?
But am I worried about them slipping away?
No. They’re too good. But for what it’s worth, keep this in mind:
They’re sitting at +400 to win the NFC and +900 to claim the Superbowl.
They aren’t missing the playoffs but I’d like to see where those odds are in a month.
“I confess myself… disappointed. Not one of you tried to find me…” – Voldemort
Cam Newton is $5100 on Draft Kings this week, who is also at home against Washington is a reunion game of sorts.
It feels like forever ago that Newton and then coach Ron Rivera were united with their crusade to rule the NFL, and then… as close as they were, weren’t good enough as Denver went bonkers on them in a Superbowl of the past.
It was a shame because misfortunes couldn’t keep happening to, who I think, is one of the nicest guys about.
But here he is, to the rescue of the franchise that dropped him, for a guy they would trade away, for a guy they would trade for. Makes sense? Sure it does!
Anyways, there are a lot of amazing high-priced options you are probably opting for this week, and I don’t blame you. Dak Prescott against the Chiefs and vice-versa for Pat Mahomes with Dallas. Josh Allen with the Colts, Aaron Rodgers with the Vikings, and so on…
But pairing up Newton against the WFT with an OPRK of 30th overall (25 DK PPG), along with a Chase Young-less ‘Team’, would it be unwise to pair up Newton with Christian McCaffrey ($8900) in some tournaments?
It’s worth a punt, I’d say.
“Soon we must all face the choice between what is right and what is easy…” – Dumbledore
It was easy to write of Jimmy Garoppolo this season.
His time in San Francisco has seen the highs and lows that many do not.
He has had the criticism and the inconsistencies, the half-backing from his Coaches and GM, along with the Draft pick they mortgaged their future on waiting in the wings which might sting a little knowing that he is contracted through to 2023.
And he has taken it all in his stride. He’s been uber professional. Hasn’t kicked and screamed about it. Been the best teammate he can be.
I can’t see them letting him go, and I can’t see him wanting to leave.
And over the past three weeks for fantasy? The guy is the current QB1 with an average of 21 ppg.
Yeah, ok, he’s the QB22 so far on the season but the form is currently on his side moving forward.
And who does he move forward on to close the season?
The 49ers play only 3 teams who currently have a winning record over .500 (Cincinnati, Tennessee, and the L.A. Rams), and one of those they embarrassed this week in a prime-time game.
Ladies and Gentlemen, this 4-5 team are on the verge of making a run for the playoffs… and Jimmy Garoppolo’s stock is only going to rise heading into 2022 if they do.
“I solemnly swear I am up to no good…” – Harry Potter
A.J. Dillon seeks to be the beneficiary of Aaron Jones going down hurt with a knee injury and I gotta say – I like Dillon a lot, but we know he is the chalk play that everyone is going to get on.
But should they?
Before getting hurt, Aaron Jones had only gone four games over 60 rushing yards – something he did easily ten times a year ago.
Now his usage may have dropped with Dillon being more of a factor this year, but are they going to lean entirely on the second-year back?
Maybe – but would you be shocked to see them rotate in Patrick Taylor or Ryquill Armstead? I wouldn’t be at all.
Minnesota is piddle of the pack for giving up rushing yards but don’t give anything away through the air in the backfield, they’ve kept better running back quiet as well.
Again, I like Dillon – but it feels more like fools gold to me at that price – I’d rather go laterally to James Conner, down to Myles Gaskin, or up to (again) a guy like Joe Mixon to find points of difference for my lineups.
“Indifference and neglect often do much more damage than outright dislike…” – Dumbledore
Miami just beat Baltimore at home last Thursday night in a tale of two halves.
The first half was run by Jacoby Brissett. It was stagnant, slow, predictable… going nowhere fast you could say.
The second half saw Tua Tagovailoa taking risks and making big plays which is the injection that side looked like they needed in the worst way.
They’ve been the rollercoaster of hell for bettors this year, as calling them erratic almost seems like a compliment.
But this week?
At -3.5 on the road to the Jets?
Against the New York Jets?
The now Joe Flacco-led Jets?
Get out of here!
The Dolphins are 2-1-1 against the spread this year on the road, while the Jets – somehow – are 6-3 going over this year (3-1 at home as well).
Miami -3.5 and over 45?
Let it ride, let’s go!
“You’re a little scary sometimes, you know that? Brilliant … but scary…” – Ron Weasley
Marquez Valdes-Scantling scares the life out of me on a week-to-week basis.
In the dictionary (and it’s a fact you can look it up, I promise) under the terms ‘boom’ and ‘bust’, there is a picture of his face.
It’s also been a while (week three to be precise) that he’s had a game with double-digit points. It was also the same game that he tied his season-high for receptions (three).
However…
We are another week removed from Robert Tonyan and now they are missing Aaron Jones… even Allen Lazard is doubtful to suit up this week too.
This team is losing playmakers, so why not turn to ‘MVS’ this week against the Vikings?
He’s super cheap this week at $3700, which can help you in multi-game stacks.
I’m not saying he’s had past success, quite the contrary he’s been pretty bad against the, – except for one game where he busted out for a 6-4-96-1 statline last season.
He is a super-risky upside play this week, but let’s face it – that’s the norm with him every week. Still, he helps bring down the price of the game if you are loading up on Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and/or Justin Jefferson as well.
Or use Tyler Conklin and Kirk Cousins instead… whatevs…
I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @BackRowGiants podcast out (https://linktr.ee/TheBLeagueSays) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.
Let’s all get better together!
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