It’s @TheBLeagueSays here with this week’s ‘Game Plan’, where I give you plays to make for weekly and DFS roster construction, prop bets, and dynasty evaluations. Before you make any start and sit decisions this weekend make sure you check out our weekly rankings also.
Thank you, and enjoy!
Out Route
25 is the new 30, and 30 is the next rejected quarterback…
Everything seems great when you first get drafted. Your number gets called, you get the jersey and hug from the ‘big guy’ and then off to training camp you go with a press frenzy following you close behind. ‘Rookie fever’ sets off and you are afforded to make mistakes. In year two you get a few more pieces and some excuses like ‘they should get him an o-line or weapons to play with and then in the next couple of years hopefully you will.
Then the doubts come in. Can they win with him on a rookie contract? Do they pick up his extra year? What about an early extension? Or maybe the future isn’t here and we have to look elsewhere. There are guys that have somehow got through this first phase of their careers and through one way or another has managed to get by from contract one into contract two.
But then what? The demand for success comes hard and fast and the excuses dry up and all of a sudden the game has changed and what was prototypical and traditional all of a sudden has become slow and lethargic and boring and unsellable and so on, and so on. Ah – you’re no longer the hottest spark in the flame, you’re now closer to being a burnt-out has been on one-year deals getting in the way of dynasty football success. The dreaded disposable asset. Oh. No.
Middle-aged quarterbacks even in Superflex drafts are failing and falling, and end up bogging your rosters. Yes, they can give you the odd 20-point game but then what? You end up not wanting to get rid of them because of lame reasons like ‘just in case’, and all of a sudden you’re stuck with a Derek Carr, or Alex Smith, or Andy Dalton, or Jimmy Garoppolo, or Carson Wentz, and maybe in a few years time… a Baker Mayfield.
The Browns are on the right track, they’re set up for a deep run into January. But Baker Mayfield has failed to crack the end of season top 15 in fantasy football quarterback rankings while now heading into his fourth season with his most stacked lineup – so if he is going to do it – this year HAS to be the year. However, there is a huge chance that this is what he is; a top 16-30 quarterback in fantasy football and with that your ceiling is now ultimately capped.
He’s going to get the (rightfully earned, don’t get me wrong) extension, and he’s going to stay consistent and they may be enough for you – a steady consistent hand so to speak for the next few years. But if you have him and he starts off hot (Chiefs, Texans, Bears) then I would seriously cash in and look to sell high on the hype asap.
The Go Route
Titan up on your reigns…
The saving grace for the guys I mentioned above can be a whole new world for a different franchise if they get lucky enough. ‘A fresh coat of paint’ so to speak. But it’s hard to argue the anomaly that Ryan Tannehill is at this point in time. So much so that every quarterback going forward that gets off the rookie deal, fails, and goes elsewhere will be given the ‘maybe he can be the next Ryan Tannehill’ (sic Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, et al) spiel.
Tannehill has been gifted the joys of Julio Jones as a clear upgrade over Corey Davis, in a division that looks like it’s half falling apart. But I’m not overly worried about the extended future, I’m checking the first week of the season.
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Most people are going to stack their DFS lineups with the Chiefs/Browns or Packers/Saints and I feel like even with the Titans/Cardinals game more will align themselves to Kyler Murray and any of the Cardinals in that matchup. But if you’re feeling ‘Firksy’, I’m starting a few lineups with Ryan Tannehill ($6500) while paying down at tight end position with Anthony Firkser ($3200) – who now doesn’t have Jonnu Smith in his way – as well as a cheaper option to correlate with like Chase Edmonds ($4600 – the Titans gave up the 7th most Draft Kings points per game to the running back position) to get in on a cheap stack for this matchup which currently has an O/U of 52 points.
The Slant Route
When I hear that old song they used to play...
Continuing the trend of guys in their 30’s, I’ve got more than a feeling that Adam Thielen is going to be not only a value play at $7000 in DFS with the Vikings’ week one matchup against Cincinnati but most likely a value all season. I get that trading for guys his age in a dynasty league is kinda frowned upon but I’d think that if you need someone to get you over the hump that he’s a guy that can propel you forward.
Everyone is concerned about touchdown regression – I understand this theory and have no problem with that – but we need to remain fluid in that stance knowing what we do now. Red zone targets are something to keep an eye on considering that Irv Smith Jr is now cooking on the Injured Reserve and Kyle Rudolph is now a New York Giant and combined they made up for nearly 27.5% of Kirk Cousins’ looks in that area of the field.
I understand the Vikings have just traded for Chris Herndon (I mean, so?) and Tyler Conklin is still there which could be a thing (I guess), but it’s hard to deny that Adam Thielen already dominates for Minnesota and led in that spectrum in 2020 with a whopping 32.5% red zone target opportunity, and with those two missing I can see him at least sustaining that rate, he might even get some more work as well – it’s unlikely, sure, but still something to consider.
Especially now while Justin Jefferson’s shoulder injury hangs a touch of a cloud over his immediate availability (he should be good to go, but still) and the impact I think early and often it will be Adam Thielen that is the initial beneficiary.
Flat Route
Sticks, stones, and poor preseason strength and conditioning programs may break my bones, but the drugs won’t hurt me…
I’ll put $20 on the ‘overs’ for the likeliness that the Baltimore Ravens Strength and Conditioning staff get replaced at the end of the season. There is not a chance in hell they can walk away unscathed, unlike the players who all seem to be hit with something.
I know they aren’t to blame for J.K. Dobbins mashing the internals of his knee up (probably best to blame his coaches for playing him in a meaningless game), but when you think that Rashod Bateman, Miles Boykin, Marquise Brown, and Sammy Watkins have all been bitten by the injury bug with soft tissue injuries of some form halting any progress Lamar Jackson could have with his best options but for the most part he has been left rolling with Nick Boyle, Devin Duvernay, and James Proche.
But it is what it is. The Ravens despite their roster taking a beating are still somehow home favorites (-4.5) on Monday Night Football against the visiting Las Vegas Raiders in a game that’s been dealt an O/U of 51. Weird it may seem to some, but you have to factor in that the Raiders were one of the best road teams in the NFL in 2020 with a 75% success rate and hit a 50% success rate against the spread on the road also giving you something to consider while making your bets.
At first glance, I’d have taken the Raiders at +4.5 and the ‘unders’. Now, I’m not so certain. I’m waiting closer to Monday night to see if there’s a drop in either projection. But if it holds – the Raiders could cover and I wouldn’t be that surprised at all.
Comeback Route
It’s a two-horse race and the other horse is a New York Giant…
Dak Prescott was an absolute monster in the four games he played in 2020 before disaster struck his ankle pausing his, and the Cowboys run on their way to probably winning the NFC East. And considering Washington got in with a negative record I feel comfortable saying that they were probably robbed of their season because of this one major thing.
Still, a year later, a fully healthy Dak Prescott resumes at the helm with his complete offense healthy and raring to go. That’s great for us, and all aspects of the fantasy community – especially those who want to make a quick buck on him and the Cowboys before the season starts.
Currently, Dak Prescott is holding short odds as the Comeback Player of the Year ($2.20) and the Cowboys are heavily favored as the NFC East division winners ($2.10) also. However, for a bit more spice, Dallas currently has their season O/U set at 9.5 which with the AFC West and NFC South that could be tough – doable – but tough.
But if they can achieve that? I’d have to think that Dak Prescott would have to go close to being the league M.V.P ($13.00) as he sits now as the fourth favorite in the field and he could do that also by taking out the most Passing Yards for the Year ($5.50) crown as well.
Screen Route
When the mirror gives you more flattery than your friends…
Upon reflection, 2020 wasn’t that bad for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they now look to add to (what I think) could be a better 2021 season. This is crazy to think because not only did they win their division, they did it by going undefeated for 11 games straight before stumbling at the finish line with a 1-4 record before being bounced out of the playoffs by a bitter rival in Cleveland Browns.
It felt like a ‘passing of the torch moment’ as the Browns got up be 28 points in the first quarter and visibly it was the Steelers running out of steam at the same time as Cleveland was picking up steam. This should not be surprising coming from the one team that did not have a Bye round during the regular season (thanks, COVID-19).
In week one, the Steelers face a somewhat familiar foe in the Buffalo Bills who they have met twice and coincidentally lost to twice over the past two seasons. Now, maybe in 2019 asking for Devlin Hodges to steer the team towards success was a big ask. But last year they showed that they (despite the quarterback) would struggle to put a dent in the armor that is the current Bills juggernaut with 15-26 loss on the road which also hit the ‘unders’ as well.
So here we are, week one approaching and two teams have failed to surpass 41 points in their last two outings and here they are with the spread now down to 48.5 (was at 51 a week ago). Three times a charm and I’m still taking the ‘unders’ and the Bills to get off to a hot start at the expense of the Steel City men.
Hail Mary
Lightning in a bottle…
So I’m trying to really dig deep on a guy that we can look back on in a year and say ‘we completely whiffed on this guy he was nothing’ or say ‘wow, as deep adds go he repaid the value’. The 49ers haven’t been a beacon of sustainable health over the past couple of seasons.
Anyone that has had Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and even Jimmy Garoppolo can attest to this. And trying to guess the running back they roll out when the previous one goes down is a nightmare to figure out also. But we don’t dismiss things because of health – no – we try to find a crack in the pavement and seep through the muck underneath to hopefully dig up some golden riches for your fantasy gaming. Enter Tim Sherfield.
He was a very, very bright spark on the 49er’s offense when Trey Lance entered their preseason games with his speed and big playability. They found each other a few times to make a huge impact, and now that Sherfield made the final 53-man roster, he is a name that I am looking at for the following scenarios:
Firstly, if you are in a stupid, stupid, stupid deep league and you have a roster spot to burn – he might be worth a stash. Secondly, with the absolute last spot on a best ball lineup as a ‘flyer’ – there are so many better options out there to take with your last pick but it’s worth a shot once or twice.
And finally, the week that Trey Lance finally gets named the starter, I’m going to chuck him into the flex spot in a few GPP lineups (week one he is priced at $3000 and I don’t see that changing for quite some time too) as well. These are the only times I would walk this line, and I only suggest considering walking with me if you think I’ve not completely lost the plot. Hey, it’s a hail mary! What do you want from me? This is what we do, remember!
I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @GothamCity_STR podcast out (Linktree) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.
Let’s all get better together!
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