It’s @TheBLeagueSays here with this week’s ‘Game Plan, where I give you plays to make for seasonal and daily roster construction, prop bets, and dynasty evaluations. Before you make any start and sit decisions this weekend make sure you check out our weekly rankings also. Before I say anything else, in week seven there are six teams on a bye (Steelers, Bills, Chargers, Jaguars, Vikings, and Cowboys). I’m going to mention it frequently, I apologize in advance.
Whatever I said, Whatever I did I didn’t mean it, I just want you back for good…
There is a stack of teams that are treading water already and we are just entering week seven. Now there are a few teams at the foot of their divisions we can write off (thanks, Giants), but there’s still a couple that is forging their way towards either the playoffs or purgatory.
Both teams on Thursday night, Cleveland and Denver are 3-3, and with the injuries piling (Chubb, Hunt, Mayfield, Beckham, Landry) up for the Browns, they could struggle over the next month.
The Eagles just moved Zach Ertz via a trade with the Cardinals, and a 2-4 start signaling their intent to a degree. They are more than capable of winning games, but being three games back from the Cowboys is a tough ask, and they’re on the road to the Raiders who are also .500.
Washington, New England, Chicago, and Minnesota are also facing a critical few weeks ahead. But there’s one team catching my eye are the moment.
The Colts still live in a division that’s there for the taking, even though the Titans gutted out a huge win on Monday night over the Bills. But their defense is falling apart, and I’m not sure they can keep this up with a bad run of injuries over 18 weeks.
The Colts, seemingly are getting healthier, and with a bye round near playoff time, they could find an even great late resurgence of health when they need it most.
Carson Wentz (17 or more fantasy points in five from six games) has looked okay despite walking on two-shot ankles that seem fine now, Jonathan Taylor looks like one of the best running backs in the league of late too.
They’re currently sitting at +220 to win the division, and have four winnable games coming in the next month (49ers, Titans, Jets, and Jaguars) – if you are looking at an outsider to potentially make some noise, then put an eye and a couple of dollars on Indianapolis.
You can say what you want but it won’t change my mind, I’ll feel the same about you…
Now I’m not one to dance on a memorial plaque, however, I am one to dance when something seems wrong but is still oh so right.
Seriously though, how in the ‘frick the Chiefs have lost three games in their first six games seems crazy, but it’s not like they lost to the Jets.
The Ravens, Bills, and Chargers (like the Chiefs) are all contenders for the AFC, make no mistake about that, dropping two games from their home fortress is the anomaly more than anything.
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Still, beating teams with a winning record looks to be an issue, which is why their matchup with the Titans who just dusted the Bills at home this week could be a bigger problem than it seems.
But it’s going to be the popular game to stack in DFS this week with an already implied total of 57 points but getting the big four in? Geez, it’s doable but tough.
Combinations Pat Mahomes ($8400), Ryan Tannehill ($6400), Derrick Henry ($9200), Tyreek Hill ($8600), A.J. Brown ($6300), and/or Travis Kelce ($7600) is going to give you nightmares covered in chalk with likely high roster percentages, so to pull this off you’re gonna have to get a lil’ freaky with some other low budget players.
But if you’re reading this I’m guessing you have nothing else to do with your time so why not try it out, and DM me how you fit a few of these guys in… I swear I won’t copy your lineups. Honest.
Why does it always rain on me…
Calvin Ridley was a name this offseason that lit social media up as a darling that was going to break out, with the trade of Julio Jones to the Titans.
Calvin Ridley is a name that we have had to almost do a double-take when we check our lineups at the end of the week because the numbers he has put up are just… un-Ridley-like? I understand he missed a week due to personal reasons when the Falcons traveled to the U.K., but everything else?
One game over 65 receiving yards, one touchdown, a drop from last year’s 91 yards per game down to 63 per game. His aDOT has dropped from 12.45 to 10.79 – it doesn’t seem like much – but it’s happened, denying that won’t help you.
It’s not all doom and gloom.
His air yards are up, and even after missing a week he still holds a 20% target share which is crazy to think because Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts have started to hit their strides in recent weeks can only alleviate pressure from him, Ridley’s targets in the past three game he played had been rapidly coming up as well.
All of this while has happened while he still leads the team in red-zone targets.
Put bluntly, as much as he hasn’t lived up to your expectations sans Julio Jones – I get that – but I would bet that if you are frustrated with him in your league now, someone else in another league who has him would equally irritated be too, right?
To me, after knocking the bye off early and with a nice month of wide receiver-friendly matchups (Dolphins, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys) upcoming, I’d suggest the chance to buy low is now – and that time is running out fast.
I’m not gonna write you a love song because you ask for it…
Michael Thomas was half sold out by Saints management for not taking an earlier surgery this off-season when all he was trying to do was look after his long-term health.
I don’t blame him, and neither should you. I can’t imagine how hard it must be to have a lingering injury, try to do things naturally, just to get blasted for it by the people who don’t tie their boots or put on a pair of pads on any given Sunday, and almost get the blame entirely for missing the start to the season.
Because it’s not like he has tried to play through the pain by returning early from injury last year as well, no, not at all (enter sarcastic tone of voice here, cheers).
But if you have a team in your league who jumped on him early this year thinking he wouldn’t miss six weeks, or if there is a dynasty squad that is struggling with him riding the pine of their injured reserve, I believe it would behoove you to ask the question on what it would take to get him on your rosters.
I’ve mentioned it before with Calvin Ridley above, but a talent like that – when in the right space physically and/or mentally – is absolutely league winners.
If you are in a position to make a push to run your fantasy leagues table, he could very much be a “decent risk, huge reward play” that at the end of the season you look back at and credit your league title to making a move for him now.
It must have been love, but it’s over now…
I love James Robinson.
I have since I drafted him in the fifth round of my home league super flex rookie draft last year.
I love that I traded him after 3 weeks for what ended up being the 1.02 and some other picks as well, and I love that I have Trey Lance because of him. It’s one of the best draft-and-flip maneuvers I have done in a while.
Because essentially in April, I dodged at the time what he could not, and that was Urban Meyer getting Trevor Lawrence his college teammate Travis Etienne.
And here we are again. As Travis Etienne doesn’t play a snap this year because he is and will be on the injured reserve for the entire season, we have James Robinson looking as fantastic as ever as the RB8 with a combined 576 yards and five touchdowns…
And here we go again. For those of you who had James Robinson and did not sell high last year and were then stuck and devasted with the rookie selection, your window to move on from him – one more time – is now.
And here’s the need again. With a plethora of running backs currently on the fritz (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Chris Carson just to name a few), along with six teams on the bye this week he is now a guy that I would go after and get if I was contending, to cover what you may have already lost.
Robinson is going to be a stud for the rest of the year, that is true. Travis Etienne will be back healthy next year, which is also true. And your problem (as someone who has Robinson on their roster) will again return, which is inevitable – and more importantly – true.
So. What are you gonna do?
Look for the girl with the broken smile, ask her if she wants to stay awhile…
Before I say another word – it’s 11 pm on Tuesday and Antonio Gibson like last week only has the ‘Q’ tag. So take all of this with a grain of salt.
And also, you know very much by now that I refuse to edit anything I write post-production. I’ll keep going until I luck into a point, or until you give up and go to the next section.
Look there’s no doubt that J.D. McKissic turned heads last year by accumulating 110 targets for the W.F.T. And finishing as the RB17 (12.0 ppg), and from week four onwards he was the RB8 for the year (13.6 ppg). Yeah, I know. That’s mental.
Because a running back that has only 85 rushing attempts FOR THE SEASON that still finishes in the top 20 of his position at the end of the year feels weird, although now it seems it is completely the norm.
See Cordarrelle Patterson, Kenyan Drake, Myles Gaskin, Kenneth Gainwell, James White, Tony Pollard, and Jamaal Williams who have all clocked in RB1 performances this year – although randomly, except for maybe Patterson – we can see and accept that you don’t need massive rushing performances to attain RB1 weeks.
And McKissic, already this year has shown that three times this year with 19.0 points vs Kansas (RB13), 16.9 points vs Atlanta (RB14), and 20.3 points vs the Giants (RB7). And that’s with Gibson toeing the line from the front.
But again, whether Gibson plays, or Jarret Patterson gets some run, it’s hard to fathom that J.D. McKissic isn’t already benefitting and will do more so if things fall his way.
And at only $5000 this week against the Packers who to be fair, have improved on the brutal run defense that has dogged them for the past couple of seasons, they do allow their fair share of work to the ‘receiving’ aspect to the running back, which could make him the chalkiest of chalk plays this week…
…aside from Derrick Henry of course.
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me…
6.9 points.
It accounted for a WR59 performance which doesn’t seem like much.
But everyone has so-called ‘bad weeks’. Terry McLaurin finished a little worse than that last week. Michael Pittman and Rondale Moore did too.
But context is king.
This was 6.9 points for a guy who made his debut.
And that debut is for a team that is sitting in tenth for passing yards this year.
And that debut saw him on the field for 65% of his team’s snaps.
With those snaps, he tied the team for a team-high in targets.
Which included the second-most routes run on his team on the day.
That’s a decent debut for Rashod Bateman if you ask me.
This week he is punching a $3400 price tag against division rival Cincinnati, who has been pretty tough on defense this year. It’s worth noting that the only time that the Bengals have conceded more than 21 points, those games have all gone to overtime.
Still, they’ve allowed over 280 passing yards three times this year, and that should give you some confidence, knowing that Lamar Jackson has done that in three of his last four outings.
He’s going to be the chalk flex play this week, but at that price, he’s going to afford you the ability to do so much more. Get on him!
I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @GothamCity_STR podcast out (Linktree) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.
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