Quicks? Hands? Yes! WR Ladd McConkey Is Your Guy

WR Ladd Mcconkey – Georgia
5’11” 1/2 | 187
Career Stats: 119 rec 1,692 yds, 14 td

Ladd McConkey (I’m trying to get the “RUN-LMC” nickname to stick; help me out) certainly turned heads – and even first got on some people’s radars – with his Senior Bowl reps. There is a lot to like about him, especially in PPR. However, like all the wide receivers after the big three, there are flaws in his profile.

Often lauded for his intangibles, McConkey won the Wuerffel Trophy, “given for combining community involvement, athletic accomplishment, and academic achievement” (Football Guys rookie guide). If you want to dive deeper into all that is the Ladd McConkey journey, check out this tweet and this article from Keith Flemming.

Pros

McConkey is a good route runner and separator with reliable hands. He is fast off the line of scrimmage, has impressive footwork, and can beat zone well. He is stronger and more physical (especially at the catch point, but also in traffic) than you’d expect from someone his size and who is likely going to play a majority of his NFL snaps from the slot (despite a college slot snap percentage that decreased each year and ended at 29.6 overall, per PFF).

McConkey also got some rushing usage in college, which will add to his appeal to NFL teams. He may have a low ceiling, but he could settle in as a juicy, “QB’s best friend with some upside for more” PPR asset, similar to Roman Wilson. McConkey is currently fifth among 2024 rookie wide receivers in Lance Zierlein’s grades with a score of 6.39.

I’ll discuss the flaws in McConkey’s analytical profile in the next section. But they need to be viewed in the context of Georgia’s offense, depth chart, and typical game script.

In his third and final season, McConkey reached an elite y/rr mark of 3.24 (and a ridiculous 4.52 vs. zone). His career y/rr of 2.54, adot of 11.6, and yac/rec of 6.6 meet standards for typical thresholding models (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton). His RAS of 8.48 is good, as is his 40-yard dash time of 4.39 (1.52 10-split). Models that attempt to account for teammate competition and program size, like the one JJ Zachariason uses, will be kinder to McConkey.

Cons

McConkey’s flaws lie mainly in the “red flags in the profile” from a data-driven perspective, but we can identify others. Knocks against him include intermittent injuries, overcomplicating his movements, and a high drop rate (11%) in 2022. Additionally, his size, play strength, and vertical game probably won’t translate well in the NFL; they are likely above-average traits for the college level but below-average for the pros. Therefore, his role will likely remain limited to a slot receiver, and he will thrive mainly as a zone beater.

That is perfectly fine for today’s NFL and PPR fantasy football, but it does limit the ways in which McConkey can have an impact in both. This contributes to his “solid floor, lower ceiling” label.

Analytically, McConkey’s profile is indeed flawed. He is not an early declare, not an early breakout, and just wasn’t very productive overall. His 25.5 BMI and 94.9 weight-adjusted speed score don’t meet common thresholds (26 and 100, respectively), though the BMI is very close and doesn’t matter as much as it used to. Most importantly for the data crowd, however, is that McConkey hit almost zero age-adjusted production thresholds. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton).

As I noted in the “pros” section, these flaws, while you are free to still use them to fade McConke, must at least first be taken into a more textured context. I would direct you to this part of the conversation between Pat Kerrane and JJ Zachariason on the Legendary Upside podcast. Keep listening shortly after the McConkey piece for the Jermaine Burton piece, which gives further detail on the Georgias depth chart.

Summary

Ladd McConkey is a very good wide receiver with a production profile a lot of folks would normally avoid, but when we consider both the context of that profile and the context of “how the NFL is played today,” we can see a path for production and success in the NFL and fantasy. He is currently my rookie WR6 and tenth player overall. I’m betting the savvy, route running, and hands translate into getting fed targets, which we love for PPR leagues.

The 2024 wide receiver class is deep, though deep with flawed profiles and “future WR2s,” so it will be very interesting to see how all this plays out in the NFL Draft. As of now, some interesting landing spots would include Arizona (picks 27 and 35), Kansas City (32, 64), Washington (36, 40, 67), Las Vegas (44, 77), New Orleans (45), Cincinnati (49), and Philadelphia (50, 53).

Strengths

• quickness, footwork
• route running
• intangibles
• hands

Concerns

• top-end athleticism
• top-end strength and physicality
• lack of vertical role/likely limited to slot
• production profile

2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: late 1st to mid 2nd in a 12-team superflex tight end premium league

Ideal Role: high-volume slot zone beater with the ability to pitch in at Z/flanker

Player Comp: Robert Woods, Doug Baldwin, Elijah Moore, Sterling Shepard, Emanuel Sanders, Diontae Johnson

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