Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/11)

Introduction

Friday was a good night for my Swing for the Fences picks with five homers. I’ll look to continue the trend on Monday’s eight-game MLB slate where there a plenty of gas can pitchers to pick on.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

mlb fanduel and draftkings lineup 6/11

C – Buster Posey (SF) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,000) – I’m also okay with fellow catcher eligible Giant Nick Hudley if he is in the starting lineup with them both going against lefty Wei-Yin Chen who has allowed 2.05 HR/9 to righties this season.

1B – Jose Martinez (STL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Martinez is hot with four homers over his last four games and will face Jordan Lyles who has served up two homers in three of his last four starts.

2B – Jonathan Schoop (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Schoop is a BvP special with three homers in 12 career at-bats against knuckleballer Steven Wright.

SS – Javier Baez (CHC) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Yes, Baez is ice cold at the plate right now but he offers immense power for a SS eligible player and I just have a hunch he goes deep tonight.

3B – Jose Ramirez (CLE) (FanDuel: $5,000 / DraftKings: $5,600) – Ramirez homered off White Sox righty Lucas Giolito a couple of weeks ago and has a .357 ISO against righties this season.

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OF – Michael Brantley (CLE) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Brantley also homered off Giolito a couple weeks ago and has a .394 wOBA and .225 ISO against righties this season.

OF – David Peralta (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Peralta has a .383 wOBA and .243 ISO against righties this season.

OF – Andrew McCutchen (SF) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,000) – McCutchen has two hits in five of his last starts including three doubles and three homers.

Longshot – Randal Grichuk (TOR) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Grichuk has eight hits including two doubles and pair of long balls over his last four games.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Jack Flaherty ($7,700), Sam Gaviglio ($6,300)
DraftKings – Jack Flaherty ($8,300), Jose Quintana ($8,100), Sam Gaviglio ($7,300)

Results – Friday, June 8

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Yasmani Grandal 2 37.4
1B Justin Smoak 0 3.0
2B Jose Altuve 1 25.2
3B Francisco Lindor 0 0.0
SS Jake Lamb 1 18.7
OF Mitch Haniger 0 6.5
OF Josh Reddick 0 6.2
OF Joc Pederson 1 18.7
Longshot Curtis Granderson 0 3.0

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 23 5 21.7% 8.83
1B 26 1 3.8% 8.12
2B 25 3 12.0% 10.16
SS 25 5 20.0% 11.61
3B 25 8 32.0% 16.23
OF 77 13 16.9% 11.19
Longshot 27 7 25.9% 11.34
Total 228 42 18.4% 11.10

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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