NFL 2022: Week 1 Start/Sit
It’s football time friends. Your fantasy drafts are over your rosters are sitting there waiting for you to obsess over. So here we are again ready to help and maybe have the overthinking thing quiet just a bit.
This season the start/ sit will be a little different. Instead of going through every game, will give each position a must start, a meh start and a long shot start. There will also be a ‘temper your expectations, you know someone you should sit but we both know you won’t.
Remember this is just the first week. Your fantasy fortunes will not be won or lost in this week, but it is going to feel good to come out of Week 1 with a win! And remember on Sunday we will be here to help you with your last-minute start sit question and @FantasyGDFS will answer your DFS questions. So, send your questions to @gladysLtyler or @FantasyGDFS answers provided Sunday 1130am eastern GoingFor2 Pregame Show. (Yes, we will be finished in plenty of time for you to get those lineups right!)
But now let’s go!
QUARTERBACKS
TOP TIER
Russell Wilson @ Seattle Seahawks
This just isn’t about revenge (although it is a little) it’s about the stats. The Seahawks were 31st last season in passing yards allowed to opposing teams (265.5). They played that bend but don’t break defense. They only allowed an average of 1.4 passing touchdowns per game (9th) and opposing quarterbacks averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game.
The Seahawks pass rush generated pressure in 2.5 seconds at the second-worst rate (17.5%). That was with Bobby Wagner and now he is gone. The cornerbacks are new and fresh, just ripe for the picking.
And did I mention that they are switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4.
This just seems to be a game made for Wilson to “cook”. He shouldn’t have to, but I bet he will. Caveat this is a MNF game.
MID TIER
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Trey Lance @ Chicago Bears
I expect Lance to have a good game. Good not great. West coast team traveling to the East coast is a real thing.
Then there are questions about the Bears this season, but few involve their defense. They are playing under new defensive coordinator and new defensive minded head coach and there is an adjustment period getting used to the HITS principle. But they still have Roquan Smith who is over his holdout. Robert Quinn who set a franchise sack record. A defense that finished fourth in sacks. And their pass defense ranked third in the league in yards allowed through the air.
The question is can Lance take advantage of the 23rd ranked defense pressuring the quarterback (23.1% of passes) and a pass defense that ranked last in the NFL in passer rating against (103.3)?
And don’t forget his ability to give you fantasy points with his legs.
Lance just misses being in the top tier because the uncertainty of what we are getting.
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
Justin Fields v San Francisco Niners
I don’t expect Fields to have a good game. Doesn’t mean he won’t but temper your expectations.
Going against Nick Bosa and Fred Warner Week 1 is no picnic for any quarterback. But going against them in a new offensive system with limited weapons for attack is definitely a daunting task. Especially when you are working with a shaky offensive line.
WIDE RECEIVERS
TOP TIER
Ja’Marr Chase v Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers secondary is brimming with uncertainty. And last season Chase had a perfect passer rating 158.3 when playing the Steelers. Sure, it was only on nine targets in two games, but you are always waiting for Joe Burrow to remember that and unleash Chase.
MID TIER
Justin Jefferson v Green Bay Packers
You are playing Jefferson. The good news is that Jefferson lines up all over the offense and hopefully, even with new regime he will continue to do so.
The bad news is Jaire Alexander is back (check to make sure he is playing…if not Jefferson slides into top-tier status).
When last seen Alexander allowed 50.7% of passes to be caught. He was breaking up 13 of 69 targets in his coverage.
And don’t forget journeyman Rasul Douglas who allowed a passer rating of 44.5 with a 50% completion percentage.
Jefferson is Jefferson. In his two games last season against the Packers, he went 21 targets, 14 receptions, 229 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS
Davante Adams @ Los Angeles Chargers
Who are we kidding he is in your lineup. That is as it should be. But remember he isn’t receiving passes from the same quarterback that he has since 2014. But he is still Davante Adams, and he is in your lineup.
Now for the bad news. The Chargers have upped their defensive game. Adding Khalil Mack to the defensive line and JC Jackson in the secondary. This means more pressure on quarterback Derek Carr who was 21st last season in completion percentage under pressure (42.6%).
JC Jackson had ankle surgery. Will he play? Will he be 100%?
The matchup (if it materializes) between Jackson and Adams is popcorn worthy. Just temper those expectations. Adams will get his and get you yours, it just might not be in his first game with new quarterback hunted by Jackson.
RUNNING BACKS
TOP TIER
Jonathan Taylor @ Houston Texans
I’m pretty sure I don’t have to say much about this. Texans’ defense was 31 against the run last season allowing an average of 142.2 rushing yards a game. They allowed an average of 22.2 fantasy points per game to the running back position.
Their then-defensive coordinator is now their head coach.
MID TIER
Dameon Pierce v Indianapolis Colts
The Texans removed Marlon Mack from the equation. Thus, it is Pierce and Rex Burkhead. Now, I believe the Texans’ best bet to maintain a semblance of a game is to run the shit out of the ball. Will they, do it? Who knows but the rookie is a legitimate three-down back.
Now for the bad news. The Colts allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position last season (15.6). Now for the so-so news, the Colts defense no longer has Eberflus but Gus Bradley making the decisions. And now for the pivot, Brandin Cooks is always in play.
TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS
Najee Harris @ Cincinnati Bengals
Harris missed preseason time with a Lisfranc injury. That’s crazy right. I mean the draft capital you spent on Harris if he is on the field you are going to start him. Maybe you should consult the doctor, DM him on Twitter @TFSDoc or check him out on Discord #the-docs-injury-analysis.
I know I will.
TIGHT ENDS
TOP TIER
Darren Waller @ Los Angeles Chargers
The beauty of having Adams on the field is that other receivers are bound to be open. Enter Waller. Last season the Chargers gave up the most fantasy points on average to the tight end position (11.5).
Now, there are reports that Waller has a hamstring injury. There are also reports that his “hamstring injury” was to avoid preseason until a new contract would be worked out.
If it is the later count him in.
MID TIER
TJ Hockenson v Philadelphia
The Eagles front line is stacked but their edge rushers are their weakest link. This will give Jared Goff amply opportunity and excuse to dump the ball off. This will give Hockenson many a target. Which is especially important sine the Eagles allowed the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position (11.1).
TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS
Kyle Pitts v New Orleans Saints
Cornerback Marshon Lattimore likes playing against big men (ask Mike Evans). Not to mention the Saints’ defense is just nasty. Last season in two games against the Saints, Pitts had two receptions for 22 yards.
You will play Pitts and be hopeful but the new quarterback, Drake London and Saints’ defense may dash that hope rather quickly.
AFTER A BRIEF ADJUSTMENT PERIOD, AND A COUPLE OF DRINKS….
You know the rest. (Deadpool quote and it won’t be the last)! Anyway, this is just to remind you it is only Week 1. There are at least 15 more weeks (depending on your fantasy league) for us to obsess about.
And you know we got you from Week 1 until your fantasy dreams become reality (or crash and burn) either way we are here to help…the reality of winning part not the crash and burn!
Come talk to me on Twitter @gladysLtyler and of course Sunday Pregame Show on @GoingFor2Live platform, Sunday 1130 am eastern but more importantly, 930 am mountain.
Good Luck!!!!
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