It’s @TheBLeagueSays here with this week’s ‘Game Plan’, where I give you plays to make for seasonal and daily roster construction, prop bets, and dynasty evaluations. Before you make any start and sit decisions this weekend make sure you check out our weekly rankings also.
Thank you, and enjoy!
Slant Route
It’s tool time:
That’s right, and this week is going to be another massive week for rookie Jonathan Taylor as he squares off against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL in divisional rival Houston. The Texans have given up the most rushing yards (1790) and the second-most rushing touchdowns (16) to the position, along with the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs also, which should help Taylor who now boasts the best catch percentage (96.9%) in the NFL today. Houston (OPRK of 32nd against running backs) absolutely cannot stop the run.
So here’s the thing: I don’t like making things up and telling you that ‘game script’ will work in their favor is all hypothetical – because in the NFL on any given Sunday anything can happen – but with how the Texans roster has been depleted I’d be surprised if the Colts needed to get out of second gear at all and leaning on the run is likely the way they’ll go. Taylor ($7200), is the fourth-highest priced running back on the 11 game slate and that comes with good reason as he’s had over 20 carries twice in his last three weeks, over 90 yards rushing three times in his last three weeks, and also has three touchdowns in his last two weeks. Put simply, the kid has come into form at the right time of the year despite Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins still figuring themselves into Frank Reich‘s weekly game plan. This week he will likely be half – but sometimes that’s the way you gotta go too.
Flat Route
They need a break:
I feel bad for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have now dropped two games in a row to Washington and Buffalo, which now sees them concede the top spot in the AFC back to the current Superbowl champions Kansas City. They look flat, they look unfocused, they look like they need a league-mandated week off, you know one of those things where you’re forced to take time off with pay… what’s that called again? Oh, the Bye Round that the NFL stole from them because Tennessee and Baltimore lacked discipline with the COVID-19 guidelines and as a result, the Steelers miss their mandatory Bye Round for 2020.
They’ve clinched a playoff spot already, and get to play Indianapolis and divisional rival Cleveland in the coming weeks which will be brutal for a team that needs a rest. Week 15 sees them at Cincinnati on Monday night which will be the closest thing to a Bye Round the Steelers will see this year and a ‘get right’ week as well to see if they can start firing on all cylinders again. I have faith in them, and the -13 favorites spread they’ve been charged with which I believe they’ll cover pretty easily.
Comeback Route
He’s going to win you your week and maybe even your league and yet no one cares:
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After two and a half games this year, Mitchell Trubisky was benched for Nick Foles and everyone had written his career off. But Nick Foles did nothing special and when he got hurt, Trubisky stepped in and has done a pretty solid job since taking the starters role. Over the past three games, he’s had either over 260 yards passing or three touchdowns in a game, and everyone kind of takes it like a joke. Making money in DFS with Trubisky as a cheap alternative is no joke, because if he only costs $5500 and can get me at least 260 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota – who are allowing about 265 passing yards and two touchdowns a game – then I want in on that. And if he goes off, you can also double down on him next week with a matchup against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars who even allowed Baker Mayfield a career day a week or so ago.
Screen Route
He’ll sign a new deal and you could probably get him on the cheap(ish) right now:
At this time of the year in leagues that I am already out from, I am (like you) continually looking to build upon my rosters to see where I was weakest and where I can get better. And normally a way I do this (of course this is extremely dependant on league format and size and all the rest) is by targeting top guys who have had a down year at the end of their contract. And I won’t lie, this section here is extremely targetted at an audience on one here, but recently I saw Chris Godwin added to the trade block – I don’t know why and I don’t care why – but here’s what I know. He’s only 25, on a contract year, coming off a ‘down year’ in a team that added so many players he at times seemed to get caught up in the muck of the mess Bruce Arians has at times created – on top of that – let’s call a spade a spade Tom Brady hasn’t helped. Chris Godwin has to be the guy at the top of every ‘buy low’ list because 12 months ago there’s not a chance you were going to get him on the cheap. I fully expect Godwin to sign back with Tampa and for the Buccaneers to clear some of the ‘dead wood’ like Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, and even Rob Gronkowski, so believing that he could fulfill a larger role in 2021 like he had in 2019 is, sure a fair bit of wishful thinking, but not unreasonable also.
Other players who hit on similar criteria (prominent players coming off a ‘down year’ facing free agency) are guys like Chris Carson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Hunter Henry. And if you want to try your luck at a guy who was going nuts this year, Dak Prescott who was balling out is a guy who you could try and get the ‘injury discount’ on now while not knowing the status of what his rehabilitation currently is.
Out Route
Poor guy:
What does Deshaun Watson have to do to get some help? I mean it just gets worse and worse every week, like in Week 14, where Brandin Cooks was a late withdrawal from the lineup, and David Johnson missed the game also. Duke Johnson hasn’t really helped either as Buddy Howell has stepped in and was ‘ok’. But here he is, their franchise quarterback, making guys who come off the street look like superstars every week. Just like Chad Hansen who in the past two weeks has a 14-12-157 stat line and looks like their best receiver. Hansen was drafted by the New York Jets in 2017, and I have no idea where he has been for the past two years – but here he is, looking like a legit NFL receiver.
Here’s what I know – and I know, that’s not much – but Deshaun Watson ($6800) is probably scrambling for his life this week (like most weeks) against the Colts who to be fair are rock solid on defense, but Chad Hansen ($4200) is a pretty cheap stack to have paired with the star quarterback.
The Go Route
Consistency is key:
Robert Tonyan has had a breakout season for the Packers in 2020 and his recent form is something that should get more recognition. That form includes five targets per game in the last four games straight, and he also has a touchdown in four games straight and has the second-highest catch rate at 88% in the NFL (behind that guy who led the game plan article this week, Jonathan Taylor) whilst being tied with Travis Kelce at the position for most touchdowns with nine each. Put bluntly, Tonyan has done a fair bit for a guy no one really had their eyes on before the 2020 season starting and he’s done that in a team that uses Davante Adams as their focal point, so much so he’s now third on the team for targets with a 12% target share which for a tight end that isn’t that bad. Over his next two weeks, Tonyan meets the Carolina Panthers (on Saturday night this week) and the Tennessee Titans who give up the 10th and 12h most points to the tight end position respectively.
Hail Mary
Who is the next big thing:
When you think about coaches that could toss their names into the ring to become the newest flavor in the NFL. Eric Bieniemy is the obvious choice, as he’s done great with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas, but I’m not sure I’m leaving that establishment for someone (should the move on from Adam Gase, all hypothetical of course) like the New York Jets. And we have seen time and time again old, recycled coaches (like Dirk Koetter, Pat Shurmur, Jason Garrett, Mike McCarthy… I could keep going) who keep getting chances and continually come up short in the win/loss column and imagination as the game has generally passed them by. But then we laugh about it from the hiring circus that surrounded the ‘Sean McVay coaching tree’ (Matt LaFleur, Zac Taylor) where everyone in his orbit got hired and while there have been some mixed results, it’s still fair to say that having a coach do well and endorse you gives those guys a leg up in an evolving NFL because every General Manager is looking for the next hot thing or that next great coaching tree. And that next branch could come in the way of Pathers Head Coach Matt Rhule, who could find trouble in holding onto Offensive Co-Ordinator Joe Brady and having the (likely) 1.01 with (likely) Trevor Lawrence; why not go after the youngest in the game right now whose teams play an exciting brand of football and have that ‘excitement’ in your building for the next five years? I don’t know about you but that sounds pretty good to me, and what also sounds good is that Joe Brady is paying an outsider’s chance to take the reigns at the Jets in 2021 at $17.00. Worth a punt if you like the Jets to make more (likely) changes in their coaching department.
I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @BackRowGiants podcast out (https://linktr.ee/TheBLeagueSays) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.
Let’s all get better together!
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