I sometimes like to start my articles with a little gimmick to hook the reader, but all I have for you today is wordplay. I am Kmet-ed to targeting tight end riser Cole Kmet in my dynasty fantasy football leagues. Are you Kmet-ed? You should be. Why you should make the Kmet-ment and what you should do about it is what I’m Kmet-ing to write about today. So do yourself a favor and read this article, lest you Kmet an act of fantasy malpractice.
Career So Far
Kmet did not see the field much in his first two years at Notre Dame, but blew up as a junior in 2019, with 43 catches, 515 yards, and 6 touchdowns over 10 games. While his 4.7 second 40-yard dash time isn’t very fast, for a player his size (6’6” 262 lbs.) and his position, it’s not bad. In fact, according to Player Profiler, Kmet’s 40 time, speed score, and burst score were all in the 72nd percentile or higher.
The Chicago Bears saw enough they liked to make Kmet the 44th overall pick (second round) in the 2019 NFL draft. When tight ends get that kind of draft capital, we need to pay attention.
Like most tight ends, Kmet didn’t set the world on fire in his rookie season. He played in all 16 games, he only garnered 43 targets, resulting in a 28-243-2 line. While Kmet went down to zero touchdowns in 2021, he improved his overall production with 60 receptions for 612 yards, as his targets more than doubled to 93. While some production came with backup quarterback Andy Dalton, Kmet did show some chemistry with rookie quarterback and 2022 starter Justin Fields. Considering how bad the Bears offense was in 2021, Kmet did pretty well.
Current Situation
Kmet enters the 2022 season as the clear number two passing target for Fields, behind only wide receiver Darnell Mooney. Additionally, there is not much behind Kmet in the pass-catching corps. All this means opportunity and volume. He could easily see over 100 targets in 2022. Considering most dynasty leagues play with some form of tight end premium, the uncertainty at the position after the first five or six (maybe fewer) options, the departure of potential touchdown vulture Jimmy Graham, and Kmet’s age (just turned 23 in March), Kmet is a definite dynasty target.
I want to be clear – I’m not saying Kmet is an elite option at tight end. When I look at players to identify as dynasty targets, I look for age, current price and perceived value, anticipated production, and anticipated increase in value based largely on that production. Kmet’s age, relatively low price, anticipated larger role and increased production, and then likely increase in trade value thereafter check all my boxes.
With even mild positive touchdown regression in 2022, Kmet will outperform his price. While Fields has struggled, we know the talent is there and that he is young, so Kmet being tied to him is a plus. One has to imagine the Bears’ offensive line and overall offense won’t be as bad in 2022 and beyond. The new regime will almost assuredly produce better results on that side of the ball. Also, even if the Bears add a WR2 type in the near future, Kmet will still be a steady target for Fields. While he may become the third option then, Kmet will be part of an improved offense, whose overall production could make up for his decreased target share.
Acquisition Price
I may be a bit aggressive in ranking Kmet as dynasty TE11, but his June 2022 DLF Superflex startup positional ADP is TE14, so people are getting hip to Kmet’s promise. Still, his overall ADP of a mid-13th round pick means you likely won’t have to reach to “get your guy” in a startup. Kmet will be a solid value play for those who don’t go for elite options such as Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce.
On the trade market, I have seen mixed results. Some value Kmet highly like me, so their price won’t be a bargain, while others are more skeptical. It’s worth looking into. For what it’s worth, in a standard 12-team PPR Superflex TEP format, Kmet is criminally undervalued on Dynasty Trade Calculator, checking in at just over half the value of a 2023 second-round pick, less than 2022 rookie tight end Trey McBride, and almost exactly the same as rookie wide receiver John Metchie.
As a seller, I would not take any of those three options straight up for Kmet, though I’m sure some would disagree on the pick and McBride. If I got Kmet for any of those pieces as a buyer, I would consider it a solid bargain.
If your team is competing and you are looking to acquire Kmet, try using a 2022 rookie as the main part of your offer, perhaps Metchie, Jalen Tolbert, or a tight end like Greg Dulcich or Jelani Woods. Rookies are still fresh in people’s minds and are shiny and new.
If you are still building toward competing and have Kmet, he is a hold – but don’t be afraid to accept a good offer from an aggressive manager. If you are in that situation and looking to acquire Kmet, try using a running back that will age out before you’re a contender for Kmet plus. You might also try using a high-value backup running back (whether the backup to one of your trade partner’s running backs or not) and a middling veteran wide receiver for say Kmet plus a 2024 third-rounder.
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Now is the time to target Kmet for your dynasty fantasy football teams – before training camp buzz, preseason flashes, and scoring regular-season points.
If you’ve read this far, I appreciate your Kmet-ment. Hopefully, you are now fully Kmet-ed to targeting Kmet.
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