Training camps are underway across the NFL which means fantasy football is drawing near. It’s time to get your draft strategy and rankings in order so that you can dominate your league. The 2020 season was defined by big name players getting injured and countless roster adjustments due to COVID protocols. This made fantasy a little less fun than previous years, but the good news is that the 2021 season should be closer to what we were accustomed to pre-pandemic. Here are 10 things that you should know heading into the new year:
Embed from Getty Images1. McCaffrey is still the 1.01
So you were lucky enough to get the first pick in your fantasy league. Congratulations! Don’t try to get cute and mess this up. Panthers’ running back Christian McCaffrey is the 1.01 in all formats except for super flex (leagues where you are allowed to start two quarterbacks) leagues. CMC is basically a cheat code in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues, which have become the new standard for fantasy football. His receiving skills alone would make him a viable WR2, so when you factor in his rushing ability it becomes clear why he is so valuable.
McCaffrey was only able to suit up for a total of three games last season due to various injuries (shoulder, quad). The good news is that he enters camp at 100-percent and did not need any surgeries or offseason recovery to get back to full health. He averaged over 29 fantasy points per game in 2019 for a total of 448 points in PPR leagues. This was over 100 points more than the RB2, Aaron Jones, scored that season. It was also well above last seasons’ RB1, Alvin Kamara, who scored an impressive 378. If you were given the gift of 1.01, then use it wisely and select McCaffrey.
2. Dak is back
Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott is back after a brutal ankle injury with no PUP designation. He is fully available and rumors are that he will even play during the preseason. While I’m all in on drafting a healthy Prescott for fantasy, his return is even more significant for the players around him. Running back Ezekiel Elliot and wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are some of the top players at their positions with Dak at the helm.
There has been a “stacking” trend going around the fantasy community as of late. This refers to drafting two or more players from the same team to maximize juicy matchups. While I haven’t totally bought into this theory, if there was one team to stack it might just be the Cowboys. They have a young defense that really struggled last year which should result in some high-scoring games. This is just what the doctor ordered when it comes to fantasy football. Dak is back so stack the Cowboys.
3. The Chargers have an ascending offense
The Chargers let old man Rivers walk in free agency last year and took some heat for drafting Justin Herbert. All Herbert did was set the league on fire by having the best rookie season we have ever seen from a quarterback. He enters his sophomore year with an upgraded offensive line, a dynamic play-caller and an arsenal of weapons around him. I mentioned previously that the Cowboys are the team to stack in fantasy but the Chargers are not far behind. Running back Austin Ekeler and wide receiver Keenan Allen are no strangers to the fantasy community and should be upgraded even more in 2021.
An effective strategy to use in fantasy football is to identify high-scoring offenses because this obviously correlates to a high number of fantasy points scored. This makes WR Mike Williams and backup RB Joshua Kelley worth stashing in the later rounds of drafts. If you miss out on the high average draft position (ADP) players like Herbert, Ekeler and Allen, then you might want to pick up Williams or Kelley to have a piece of this potential offensive juggernaut.
4. Avoid the Patriots offense
There very well could be a fantasy stud hiding on the Patriots’ roster. I just have no idea who it is. Unlike the Chargers, the Patriots struggled to replace their longtime quarterback last season. Cam Newton is back as the team’s presumed starter which makes them an offense to avoid for fantasy purposes. If rookie Mac Jones were to replace Newton halfway through the year, then there might be a few players worth having on your bench. No matter who is at the helm, I would not feel comfortable relying on any New England player in my starting lineup. Free-agent addition Hunter Henry could be a decent play at tight end but it feels like a stretch.
Bill Belichick is notorious for moving pieces around and using committees. He has the roster to interchange the RB, WR and TE positions week-to-week making this situation an absolute nightmare for fantasy managers. Save yourself the weekly headache and avoid this team in 2021.
Embed from Getty Images5. Draft rookie RBs
Drafting rookie running backs is a great way to win your leagues. They are undervalued because of the “He needs to prove he can do it against NFL-level competition” narrative. Take advantage of this. Najee Harris and Travis Etienne were drafted in the first round by the Steelers and Jaguars, respectively. The track record for first-round running backs having success in the NFL is pretty outstanding. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot, Adrian Peterson and Josh Jacobs are a few names that come to mind.
The RB position has a lot less of an NFL learning curve than other positions. We’ve even seen un-drafted rookies step in right away and contribute like James Robinson. So don’t be afraid to draft a player like Michael Carter or Trey Sermon if you miss out on Harris and Etienne. There are plenty of options. Think of rookie RBs as a lotto ticket with really decent odds of winning. You’re going to want to have at least one in your pocket.
6. Pay for a premium TE
The tight end position is severely scarce. There’s a big drop-off after Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle are off the board. While I highly suggest paying the price for one of the “big three” it’s not always realistic depending on how your draft goes. T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts make up the “mini big three”, if you will. They have tremendous upside but also some uncertainty.
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The best strategy is to pay the high ADP price tag for a premium TE. It’s an important roster need to fill and can give you a tremendous advantage over your opponents. A good rule of thumb is to only draft a TE that is realistically a top-three target in their offense. Kelce, Waller, and Kittle are all arguably the No. 1 targets for their teams. This is why they are so valuable and worth drafting.
7. Draft a QB with rushing ability
Most leagues are set up to skew more points to mobile QBs. The top five QBs last year were Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. All five have above-average mobility. This is because most scoring formats give significantly more points for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns vs. passing yards and touchdowns.
I’m all for waiting on taking a QB until the later rounds in 1QB formats. Just remember that there will be a point in your draft where you wait too long and end up chasing points at the position all year long. When looking for a solid option remember to value a mobile QB significantly higher than an immobile one.
8. Don’t fall for the hype
Training camp can be a confusing time. Trying to filter out the noise and find the stories that actually matter can be difficult. There is a lot of coach speak that goes on throughout the summer where players are hyped up unnecessarily. Don’t fall for the hype. A crazy video of a no-name player making a one-handed catch in practice is not going to result in that player becoming a fantasy stud.
Trust your own evaluation process and don’t let the media do it for you. Pay attention to the preseason but realize that these games don’t count and coaches aren’t going to show their full hand.
9. Wait on kicker and defense
Kicker and defense have been legislated out of a lot of leagues over the years. If you are still in a league that drafts these positions the best strategy is to wait until the last two rounds. Stacking up on bench players with upside while your league mates fill in their starting lineup will give you a better team overall.
The truth is that kickers are so unpredictable week-to-week that it doesn’t make sense to draft one until the final round. Defenses are mostly influenced by their matchups, so rotating them throughout the season is the most effective strategy.
10. Draft players you like
Fantasy football is meant to be, above all else, fun. I understand we all want to win and sometimes there can be big money involved but let’s not forget what this game is all about. It is meant to take our mind off of our job and let us mentally escape to a happier place.
Go draft your favorite player on your favorite team over the guy that everyone at work is talking about. Football is so unpredictable that the guy you like better could just win you your league anyways. I’m all for taking a player that you enjoy watching over a guy that all the experts are hyping up.
If you enjoyed this article, then you’re in luck! Be on the lookout for weekly installments of “10 tips to know” throughout the season. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jaltorfer1. Any and all feedback is welcome.
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