Key Fantasy Relevant Losses:
- RB Frank Gore
- WR Michael Crabtree
Key Fantasy Relevant Additions:
- WR Torrey Smith
- RB Reggie Bush
Overview
The 49ers had one of the worst off-seasons I can remember for any team — ever. They lost All-Pro MLB Patrick Willis, All-Pro DE Justin Smith, rookie stand-out MLB Chris Borland and Pro-Bowl Tackle Anthony Davis to retirement. Michael Crabtree is now across the bay in Oakland, and Frank Gore is in a Colts uniform. They have a new un-proven head coach in Jim Tomsula, two new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and they play in a division with the 2-time defending NFC Champions. It really can’t get much worse than that.
There is only one true bright spot headed in to training camp and that’s Pro-Football Focus’s No. 1 overall linebacker from two years ago is back from a devastating knee injury suffered in the playoff loss to Seattle in January of 2014 — NaVorro Bowman. According to team sources he looks great and he says he feels great.
As a 49er fan I don’t have a ton of optimism headed into the season, and have predicted them to go 8-8 on the year and miss the playoffs for a second straight season. On the other hand, from a fantasy perspective I think there is some great value to be had, so let’s break it down.
Quarterback
The 49ers passing attack was abysmal last year ranking third worst in the league, only the Jets and Jaguars were worse. With those type of stats I’m surprised they actually went 8-8 last year. Colin Kaepernick is in a make or break year. The structuring of his contract will allow the 49ers to release him at the end of the year and loss nothing, so he needs to show up big this year or he will be playing elsewhere in 2016. Speaking strictly from a fantasy perspective, I expect Kap to have a good — not great — fantasy season, and I’ll tell you why.
1) It is perceived by most fans of the NFL that Colin Kaepernick had a down season, when in actuality he was pretty much the same as he was in 2013. In fact, his completion percentage, passing and rushing yards all increased over the previous years numbers.
2) The new coaching staff has come out publicly and said they plan to run Kap more. He had a career high 104 attempts last year, even though it was perceived by the media that he didn’t run as much as he had in the past.
3) Listen to this stat. Colin Kaepernick is the only quarterback in NFL history to have 100-plus rushing attempts, 600-plus yards and have less than five rushing touchdowns in a season. That means no one has had all those rushing numbers and only scored four touchdowns. It also means, no one has had all those rushing numbers and scored only 3 touchdowns. No one has had all those rushing numbers and only had…. ok you get the point. He only had one rushing touchdown last year. One! Hypothetically speaking, if he had scored five touchdowns last year on the ground, instead of one, he would have ranked as the No. 12 quarterback. Also, if we are to believe the coaching staff about running him even more, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that his overall rushing numbers could increase, which could move him into the 10th spot. Making him a QB1. He is currently the 16th quarterback off the board, just under Teddy Bridgewater. That folks is what we call value.
The potential does exist that what we have seen from Kaepernick over the last 2-3 years is his ceiling. Maybe we have seen everything he can be, but when I hear things about him working with Kurt Warner in the offseason, that tells me he is still hungry to learn. Even if he learned only one thing from Warner that he can apply to his game, it shows me he is still hungry to perfect his craft, and therefore worth the risk in the 13th or 14th round of your fantasy draft. Position Grade: C+
Running Back
Last year at this time we were asking ourselves, “Why did the 49ers take Carlos Hyde in the draft?”. I mean, they already had Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, and Marcus Lattimore. Why did they draft yet another running back?
It’s amazing how much can change in a year.
Gore is in Indy. Hunter is coming off a season ending injury. James, last I heard was on the practice squad in Miami, and Lattimore retired due to a devastating knee injury in college and never played a single snap in the NFL.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
We now enter the Carlos Hyde era in San Francisco, and he has a tough act to follow. Not only was Frank Gore the all-time leading rusher in San Francisco, but he was one of the leaders in the locker room. Everyone respected Gore and no one on the team wanted to win more than the 11-year vet from Miami Florida. Tough act to follow indeed.
Hyde showed flashes last year that he could be a lead back, but he also disappeared at times and didn’t show the patience of Gore when setting up blocks. He often ran straight into the defender before his pulling linemen could get out in front. In college he could probably break that tackle and get five to six yards. Not in the NFL. He will have to learn — and learn quickly — how to read — and set up his blocks — if he wants to make it at this level. He has the athleticism and raw talent to be a successful NFL running back, he just needs to learn the finer points that will make him a good NFL running back.
Reggie Bush is now a 49er and I think he can still be fantasy relevant in deeper leagues. There is the chance of a running back by committee (RBBC) with these two running backs. I’m expecting the splits to be 65/35, with Hyde getting the bulk of it. Bush is no longer a lead back, and one can argue he never was, but he is still a dangerous receiver out of the backfield and they could split him wide in certain formations to pull the linebackers away from the middle of the field.
I’m expecting to see something that we haven’t seen much of over the past few years under Greg Roman. Running back screens. The 49ers ran fewer RB screens than any other team in the league. They were credited with five. Five on the season, not five a game!! It was literally not in their playbook, and as a fan of the 49ers, having watched every snap of every game last year, I can’t even remember one of those five screens. Kaepernick was the second most sacked quarterback last year, and the best way to slow down a pass rush is to throw screen to your running back, yet for reasons known only to them, they did not.
Expect that to change.
Both running backs will be involved heavily in the passing game, and I can foresee some packages in which they are both on the field. The 49ers are a running team and you can expect a heavy dose of Hyde, Bush, and Kap carrying the ball. The running back position is by far the strongest position on the offensive side of the ball, but with that said, I believe Hyde is being drafted a little too high for me. Currently the 17th running back off the board puts him firmly in RB2 territory. I would prefer he slip to more of an RB3, otherwise I think I’ll be passing on him. Position Grade: B-
Wide Receiver
There isn’t much to talk about with the 49ers wide receivers. Torrey Smith was added in the offseason, completing what was the “if you can’t beat them in the Super Bowl, sign them to your squad” receiving core. Or as I have been calling it, “The Ravens West”. Smith represents the best deep threat Colin Kaepernick has had in his tenure here. Vernon Davis was his only deep threat in previous seasons, and getting a tight end opened deep is a difficult thing to do when they runs routes in the middle of the field more often than not. This receiving core will be solid in real world NFL, but I don’t see a huge impact in the fantasy world.
Anquan Boldin could be viable in deeper formats and in PPR leagues, but he isn’t going to give you many big games. He’ll be mind-numbingly consistent with 5-7 receptions and 50-75 yards a game, but that’s all you’ll get from him. Torrey Smith has yet to prove he is anything more than a deep threat in this league, but even as a deep threat, he could have some late round value. Kap has a huge arm, and if reports are to be believed, he has improved his touch. If that is truly the case, then Smith could be in for a great year.
After these two guys, it’s a crap shoot. The three guys vying for the No. 3 spot — Bruce Ellington, Quinton Patton and Jarius Wright — have shown flashes of their potential, but none have lived up to it. Ellington is the expected No. 3, but he can’t stay healthy. Patton too has struggled to stay on the field, and hasn’t shown chemistry with Kaepernick when he is on the field. Jarius Wright has shown he play in this league, having two games last year with 100-plus receiving yards for the Vikings, but owning the No. 3 receiver on a run first team isn’t that appealing to me. Position Grade: C-
Tight End
Vernon Davis had an awful season last year, and many think he is done. I am not one of those people. Do I think Davis will be a 12 touchdown tight end again? No. Do I think he is being drafted too low? Absolutely. Davis’ biggest asset is his speed. No linebacker or safety can run with him. Hell, most cornerbacks can’t either. His back injury last year slowed him down considerably, but by all accounts he is healthy and ready to prove himself. Going undrafted in most fantasy leagues, if you miss out on the top tight end targets, you might want to take a flyer on Davis. I wouldn’t draft him as your TE1, but if your TE1 has question marks, like say Julius Thomas , owning Vernon Davis could be a God send if he were to return to form. Position Grade: C-
Summary
I’ve already drafted three full teams, and will be drafting a fourth one this Sunday. I also did a mock draft that you can read by clicking here. So in total, that’s four teams I have drafted, and I own one 49er in total on all four teams. In case you didn’t already know, I’m a 49ers fan. That should tell you everything you need to know.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
