WR Geronimo Allison (Green Bay Packers) | 4th Year
2018 Stats: 20 receptions, 303 yards, 2 TD (5 games played)
It was a short yet productive 2018 season for Geronimo Allison. He only played in 5 games, and even then, the 5th game was cut short due to injury. Allison was on a good pace through September. In the Packers first 4 games, Allison had the 2nd most targets in 3 of those games. He and Aaron Rodgers showed some chemistry in that first month and it is likely that he would have been the 2nd or 3rd receiver in Green Bay at the season’s end.
Now, Randall Cobb departed via free agency and the WRs that Allison is competing against are most 2nd-year players. Yes, Davante Adams is the Packers’ top target. But there should be enough volume for Allison to be a viable fantasy starter. Green Bay threw the ball 640 times in 2018. That was the 2nd time in 3 seasons that the team surpassed 600 pass attempts.
Slot Him In
The reports from OTAs (organized team activities) are that Allison has been spending time in the slot. According to Zach Kruse from Packers Wire, Allison has lined up in the slot during 1-team 11-on-11 drills.
Cobb has several productive seasons as the primary slot WR in Green Bay. Without Cobb, that role is wide open for any player to win the job. There were rumors earlier in the offseason that Adams would be spending significant time in the slot. While that is still a possibility, it appears that Allison will get the first crack at the slot.
In fantasy football, slot receiver used to be a pejorative term. In the past, teams placed a receiver in the slot if they were too small or could not get separation against man coverage. However, the NFL has evolved to incorporate more 3 WR sets, where the slot receiver is actually valuable. Look at Cobb’s 2014 production. 91 receptions for 1,287 yards and 12 TDs. That all came in the same season that Jordy Nelson achieved career highs in receptions (98) and receiving yards (1,519). So it is possible to have multiple 1,000-yard receivers in Green Bay. With Rodgers slinging passes, Adams and Allison could be the next 1,000-yard duo.
Cobb was excellent at finding space in zones and using his quickness to get open. He also had a mind meld with Rodgers that allowed them to connect on passing plays where the QB had to scramble. While Allison has not been with the Packers for as long as Cobb was, he has nonetheless already demonstrated that important chemistry. For instance, check out this play below.
On this 3rd-down play from 2017, Allison is already showing a connection with Rodgers. When the signal-caller scrambled out of the pocket, Allison recognized it and managed to gain separation at the proper moment. This example of great timing will only get better as time goes on.
2019 Projection: 72 Receptions, 994 Yards, 5 TD
There have only been 4 instances where two receivers had at least 100 targets in an Aaron Rodgers offense. Two of those times came in Rodgers first two seasons as a starter when Greg Jennings and Donald Driver were target hogs for the Packers. Those other two times were Randal Cobb in 2014 and Davante Adams in 2016 (both behind Jordy Nelson).
It is possible that 2019 is another one of those instances. Even if he does not reach the 100 target plateau, I still expect Allison to see at least 90 targets this season. Playing out of the slot, I do not think it is unreasonable for Allison to catch 75% of his targets as those passes are less likely to be contested. That would give him upward of 70 receptions. Using his career average 13.8 yards per reception and 13.75% TD rate, that would give Allison around 1,000 yards and 5 TDs.
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