Daily Fantasy: How To Win Your MLB Cash Games

As the co-owner of a bar, I get to meet a lot of people during the course of work, some good and some bad. Recently I met a guy who shared with me a strategy that he uses in MLB DFS to achieve a 68% winning record in cash games (50/50s, double-ups and head-to-head games.) For those of you who play cash games, you know that sort of return on investment is off the charts. His strategy seemed to go against everything we’ve been taught about DFS, but I gave it a shot, tweaked my research a bit to go in line with his way of thinking, and over the last couple of weeks I’ve achieved about a 65% winning record in my 50/50 games (I prefer those to double-ups as the rake is 10%, while double-ups can be as high as 17%.) I feel confident now to offer this strategy, as an efficient means to slowly and effectively build our bankrolls over the course of the summer.

OVERVIEW

First and foremost, this strategy only works in cash games and short slates of two or three games. It can work on four-game slates, as long as one team is a heavy favorite in those games. It is not recommended to be used in tournaments, slates of five games or more or slates where a team is not favored by -160 or better. Ideally, we’re looking for a slate that has at least one team projected to score 4.5 runs or more. Since we have several slates every day in MLB (Early Only, Express, Late Night, etc.) we can usually find one or more opportunities to play on a daily basis. However, if none of the criteria are met, I would advise fading the day and play again the next day.

Secondly, this strategy works best on sites that allow only one pitcher (I play on FanDuel almost exclusively.) If you play on Draft Kings, Yahoo or any other “two pitcher sites,” I would strongly advise against using this strategy, or you can simply open a FanDuel account.

Finally, this is a cash game strategy. We’re not looking to be in the top 2% of the field to win big money; we’re simply trying to beat 50% of our opponents. Therefore, we’re going to let Vegas do a lot of our research for us and we’re going to play the chalk. Vegas didn’t get all those big hotels by being wrong most of the time. We’re not worried about being contrarian or finding low-owned players. In fact having players that are highly owned in our lineups (especially pitchers) is actually a good thing. Remember, in a 100 entry 50/50, finishing 45^th earns you the same prize as finishing 1^st.

PITCHER

In MLB DFS, regardless of the site on which you play, the pitching position is the greatest source of points in your lineup. Therefore, selecting the right pitcher is the most important aspect of line up building. In this system, we take the guess-work out and allow Vegas to select our pitcher for us. We simply choose the pitcher who’s the biggest favorite on the slate. As I stated earlier, ideally we want a pitcher who is a -160 or better (the bigger the better) Vegas favorite, but slightly lower odds are acceptable if the pitcher has very high strikeout upside. If there are two pitchers favored by nearly identical odds, we first look at strikeout upside and then over/under as the tie breakers.

The rationale here is that unlike tournaments (and basic DFS thinking in any sport, in which we want our players to have low ownership levels) we want our pitcher to be highly owned. Since the pitcher is the most important position as far as points go, and thus the most critical decision we have to make, this makes the position less important as ownership levels rise.

Let me give you an example. I recently competed in a two game, Late Night slate that featured Clayton Kershaw as a -240 favorite over the Mets and a competitive game with a high over/under between St Louis and the LA Angels. Kershaw, who was 79% owned in my contest delivered 78 FanDuel points, the Dodgers scored five runs and the other game ended up being a 12-10 affair. So, if you had the Dodger’s ace in this contest, you now only had to beat 29% of your opponents to get in the top 50 and earn your prize. But what if Kershaw had a rare bad game? No problem. 78 other people were in the same boat and you could still cash, provided your hitters came through.

This is an extreme example, but it illustrates the point that this strategy takes the guesswork out of selecting the most important player in your lineup; and in most cases allows you a chance to win, whether your pitcher does well or not.

 

HITTERS

Now that we’ve mitigated, to a degree, the magnitude of the pitching position in our contest, we turn to selecting our hitters. We’re going to let Vegas aid us in our selection of our hitters, as well. If there is one, or even two teams projected to score a large amount of runs (we’re looking for at least 4.5) we’re going to look to stack three or even four of their hitters. Since we have salary cap concerns and want to get the best possible bats in our lineups, don’t be afraid to “punt” a weak position. Often, catchers or one of the middle infield positions is weak across the slate, so do be afraid to roster a minimum priced hitter at one of these positions, if it allows you to afford a couple of players you really like.

The key stats we’re looking for are wOBA and ISO vs the “handedness” of the opposing pitcher and overall wOBA in his last seven games. Baseball is a very streaky sport and even the best hitters go into slumps. We want to target the safest players available, so make sure your hitters are in good recent form. While playing stars in slumps at a reduced salary is often a good strategy in tournaments, we’re just trying to finish in the top 50% of the field.

Finally, you’ll want to try to use hitters batting 5^th or better in the lineup. If you go any lower than that, you’re running a big risk of giving up an at-bat. Also, you’ll want to try to bunch your hitters in your stacks, so they can drive each other in and you can multiply your scoring. For example, if one of your hitters drives the other in, you get 6.7 points (3.2 for the R, 3.5 for the RBI) off of that single run.

Going back to the Kershaw slate, the Cardinals were projected to score a run and a half more than any other team on the slate, in their game against the Angels. I stacked their 2-5 hitters and they ended up scoring 12 runs, rewarding me handsomely. The Dodgers and the Angels had similar scoring projections, so I filled out the rest of my LU using players from those teams. I wrote earlier about sometimes having to punt a position and as you can see from my lineup below, I employed that strategy with Pennington and it actually benefitted me!

 

OVERVIEW

This is a very simple, yet effective strategy in MLB cash games. Don’t over think it though and don’t let any “bad habits” from playing tournaments go about how you select your players for these games. You’re never going to win all of your contests, but this strategy should get you rolling and your bankroll growing.

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