Week 13 is a great time to get into Yahoo’s DFS format. For those who have been reading my previous articles, you’ll know that I attempt to point out the best player price value on Yahoo’s Sunday slate.
For roster and scoring settings, check out my Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. There are five teams that play Home and Dome in the Week 13 Sunday Slate:
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots
Minnesota Vikings vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (GB) $32 vs PHI
This week, I can see both of the top two quarterbacks as excellent plays. The reason Aaron Rodgers is the best value is because of the $8 difference between him and the top guy. Everything is setting up for Rodgers to potentially be the #1 one quarterback of the week. First, the Eagles-Packers game has one of the five highest over/under lines of the slate. Secondly, the most dangerous part of the Philadelphia defense is the front line. With their offensive line ranked 4th in the league in Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate, the Packers should be able to withstand any pressure from the Eagles line. With time, Rodgers should have no problem picking off the vulnerable Philadelphia secondary.
Matt Ryan (ATL) $27 vs NO
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This one might be dependent on the status of Julio Jones. If he is active, then it helps Matt Ryan by adding to his ceiling. It is also a Home and Dome game. Always important to mine value in good game conditions. Unfortunately, Ryan does not have much of a floor so this is more of a tournament play and not so much in cash games. Again, any cash game, I’m going up to Rodgers.
More Value: Philip Rivers (IND) $23
Running Back
Derrick Henry (TEN) $34 vs CLE
Last week, I outlined Derrick Henry in this section, and it paid off massively. While he has gone up in price, he is still in the range where I consider him a value. I always go after running backs in high scoring games, and that’s certainly what this Browns-Titans matchup is expected to be. Vegas lines place this as the highest scoring contest of the week with a combined over/under of 53 points.
David Montgomery (CHI) $17 vs DET
In my opinion, David Montgomery is one of the most under-priced players on the entire slate. According to Yahoo’s scoring, the Lions have allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Considering Montgomery’s volume (double-digit carries in every game) and involvement as a receiving option, he should be above the $20 mark. Instead, at $17, Montgomery needs to be locked into every lineup.
More Value: Cam Akers (LAR) $16
Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks (HOU) / Michael Pittman (IND) $18 IND @ HOU
Not only is the Colts-Texans game a Home and Dome contest, but it is also tied for the second-highest combined over/under on the slate at 51 points. This is expected to be a high-scoring divisional matchup, with great receiving options on both ends. In my opinion, this is definitely a week to pay down at the wide receiver position. As you will see there are plenty of great wide receiver options available for less than $20. Including both Brandin Cooks and Michael Pittman.
Allen Lazard (GB) $16 vs PHI
Many will go up to the highest-priced wide receiver to stack with Aaron Rodgers. While I think that is a decent play, it is also quite an expensive stack. Rather than pay $39 for Davante Adams, I would rather spend big at other positions. That leaves Allen Lazard as a great value sitting at $16. While he may not have the floor or upside of his fellow Packers receiver, he still posses great opportunity to produce against this Eagles secondary.
Jarvis Landry (CLE) $15 @ TEN
Jarvis Landry represents an very effective way to buy into the Browns-Titans matchup. The game script lineup up to stack Landry with Derrick Henry. Running back on the favorite and wide receiver on the underdog. The only concern with Landry in tournaments might be his high ownership coming off of his best fantasy performance of the season. While his popularity may go, his price certainly hasn’t.
More Value: Anthony Miller $12 vs DET
Tight End
Travis Kelce (KC) $32 vs DEN
Last week, it was the Chiefs QB-WR stack that was most successful. Now that both players have gone up in price, I believe this is the perfect time to pivot to the tight end. For Week 13 Yahoo prices, I do not see any great values at the tight end position. Saving so much money at wide receiver will allow you to pay all the way up for Travis Kelce. Last time around, Kelce did not produce good numbers against the Broncos. However, that was more to do with the weather and game script than Denver’s defense. Look for Kelce to take full advantage this week.
T.J. Hockenson (DET) $21 @ CHI
It has been a fairly consistent season for T.J. Hockenson with at last 7.2 fantasy points in all but one game. What Hockenson has not yet hit is his ceiling. In fact, his best fantasy performance of 2020 came against the Bears. Now faced with the Chicago defense yet again, Hockenson is in a prime spot to produce. Also, he should see more targets than the 5 he received in that first Bears contest.
More Value: Trey Burton (IND) $14 @ HOU
Deep Dive
RB – Devontae Booker (LV) $14 @ NYJ
In this section, going for backups running backs is rather normal. Especially when it’s a mid-week inactive announcement. That usually means that the player prices are lower than what projections would indicate. Week 13’s version is Devontae Booker, now that Josh Jacobs is out for this upcoming game.
WR – Keke Coutee (HOU) $10 vs IND
There are many factors as to why Keke Coutee is arguably the best play on the slate at any position. First, over the last couple of games, the Texans have lost three of the four wide receivers above Coutee on the depth chart. Now as the likely number two in a high-volume passing offense, Coutee has a great opportunity. Furthermore, this is a Home and Dome game so the environment sets up well for the passing game. The only concern is how difficult the Colts defense is. They are currently ranked 8th in Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) data. What Coutee loses inefficiency, he can make up for in volume.
Defense
Seattle Seahawks (SEA) $15 vs NYG
Are you seeing the pattern yet? Yes, once again I am targeting a defense playing a backup quarterback. That is exactly what the Giants will have to field this week. But perhaps more importantly, the Seahawks have been putting more pressure on signal-callers of late. Through the first 6 games of the season, Seattle had accumulated 9 total sacks. In the last 5 games, 22 sacks. This massive difference can help out DFS lineups this week. Especially since the Seahawks are a middle of the pack price.
Minnesota Vikings (MIN) $13 vs JAX
Something about this price range. And the Jaguars are on their third quarterback this season. Although, with the way this team has played all season, whoever is behind center is not making the biggest difference. A defense playing Jacksonville at only $13 is definitely a good value.
Thank you for reading my DFS NFL Yahoo Week 13 article. Be sure to check out Going for 2 for all of the great DFS content.
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