As we turn into the month of October, NFL DFS will continue to thrive. Yahoo’s DFS format is fabulous and I definitely recommend trying it out. For roster and scoring settings, check out my Week 1 article.
Now, let’s get into my DFS NFL Yahoo Week 4 analysis.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. There are three teams that play Home and Dome in the Week 4 Sunday Slate:
Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings
Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson (HOU) $30 vs MIN
Right off the bat, we begin with a Home and Dome representation. But that is not the only reason. The Vikings-Texans game has 53.5 combined over/under. Most weeks, that might be the highest scoring matchup. However, with 8 (!!!!!!!!) games having combined over/unders of 51 or more points, there should be plenty of fantasy production to go around. That is where Deshaun Watson enters the equation. His rushing production makes for a safe cash game play. Meanwhile, the upside he presents against the Minnesota secondary is incredible. In a game that may not have the most exposure in DFS lineups, Watson could be a great differentiator in tournaments.
Kirk Cousins (MIN) $24 @ HOU
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My next QB value comes from the same game as the player previously mentioned. While the Vikings defense has been bad, the Texans have arguably been worse. According to Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) Houston ranks as the 26th best defense. Without the rushing floor, Cousins is riskier than Watson. However, if the extra $6 can be useful elsewhere, Kirk Cousins can present just as much upside as Watson.
More Value: Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) $24
Running Back
Nick Chubb (CLE) $27 @ DAL
Nick Chubb may not necessarily seem like a value at $27. However, with the news that Kareem Hunt is questionable for Week 4, things may change. Up to this point, Hunt has capped Chubb’s pass-catching upside. However, if Hunt is forced to miss time, that could lead to a massive snap count increase for Chubb.
Jonathan Taylor (IND) $27 @ CHI
For anyone who read these article last season, I had a section called Preferred Play Price Point. Apparently this week at RB, that price point is $27. It is difficult to decide between Jonathan Taylor and the aforementioned Chubb. Perhpas the final factor (if you are unable to get in your lineups) may be Hunt’s availability.
More Value: David Montgomery (CHI) $14
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett (SEA) $25 @ MIA
Tyler Lockett has been tearing up defenses, especially last game. Week 3 was actually the first time in 2020 that Yahoo had Lockett priced lower than DK Metcalf. Here in week 4, that is once again the case. Last week, I actually recommended playing both, to much success. While I expect Metcalf to have another great performance, I prefer Lockett this time around.
Adam Thielen (MIN) $24 @ HOU
Once again, I want as much exposure as possible to the Vikings-Texans game. Adam Thielen presents a great opportunity in the desirable range at WR. Perhaps there is no bigger overreaction than Thielen at the same price as Justin Jefferson. Yes the rookie had a monster week 3 performance. However, Thielen is still the alpha in the receiving corps and should be able to take full advantage of that Houston secondary.
Brandin Cooks (HOU) $16 vs MIN
Since arriving in Houston, Brandin Cooks has struggled to produce fantasy points. However, against a very vulnerable and inexperienced Vikings secondary, this could finally be the week we have been waiting for with Cooks. Certainly, his price is very appealing as he is equal with some of his teammates. This in spite of the fact that Cooks clearly has the most upside, so long as he and Deshaun Watson can connect. Speaking of Watson, Cooks makes for a great stack with the QB.
More Value: Tee Higgins (CIN) $13
Tight End
Zach Ertz (PHI) $17 @ SF
We heard this last year as well. Eagles are suffering with injuries. As has been the case over the last few years, Zach Ertz should once again be a target hog for Philladelphia. The $17 may be strongly influenced by the matchup against the 49ers. However, that San Francisco defense has also been shredded by injuries. I believe that Ertz will not only produce, but relative to his price, he could be the most valuable TE on the Sunday slate.
Jimmy Graham (CHI) $10 vs IND
If you are looking to punt at TE, I recommend going all the way down to the minimum price of $10. Jimmy Graham currently has 7 Red Zone targets on the season. That leads in Bears in total Red Zone opportunities. On every other NFL franchise, it is an RB who paces the team in Red Zone opportunities. Take advantage of Graham’s pricing before he continues his TD pace.
More Value: Rob Gronkowski (TB) $10
Deep Dive
D’Andre Swift (DET) $13 @ NO
Coming off of a disappointing performance, this may be the perfect week to play D’Andre Swift. Among Lions RBs he not only leads in targets (12) but also has double what the rest of backfield has combined for so far in this young season. One thing has become clear, Swift is Detroit’s designated pass-catching back. Again, a strong Saints squad, I expect Swift to see the most time on the field, relative to other Lions RBs.
Ronald Jones (TB) $12 vs LAC
This may be the value of all values on the slate. With news that Leonard Fournette will miss Week 4, Ronald Jones should get most of the backfield work for the Buccaneers. It may not be an easy matchup against the Chargers, but Jones’ projected volume makes him so worth the price. With him in your lineup, you can perhaps afford an extra elite player in your lineups.
Defense
Los Angeles Rams $17 vs NYG
I see a few great options at defense this week. If you want to pay up, then the Rams are probably the best bet as the should beat up on an already shorthanded Giants team. Expect sacks galore from the Rams unit.
Buffalo Bills $13 @ LV
If you are looking to save a for dollars on defense, I recommend the Bills. Again, this is taking advantage of a team with injuries, especially at the skill position. Buffalo’s defensive front is very potent, and their corner backs are some of the best in the NFL.
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