During Canadian Thanksgiving, I am thankful for everyone who reads my articles and supports Going for 2. I only hope to give you the best advice with regards to Yahoo’s NFL DFS format. Here are the players with the best prices in week 5.
For roster and scoring settings, check out my Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. There are three teams that play Home and Dome in the Week 5 Sunday Slate:
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew (JAX) $28 @ HOU
Not a home game, but the Jaguars nonetheless play indoors this week. What better way to start off this article than by looking at Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metrics. The Texans defense ranks 30th in that regard which makes this quite the intriguing matchup. Outside of a blip against the Dolphins, Gardner Minshew has been consistent with at least 20 fantasy points in every other game. Look for that to continue in week 5.
Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) $25 @ ATL
Yes, another Road and Dome player. Right off that bat, that is a plus for passing options in that game. Add in the fact that Teddy Bridgewater will be facing a vulnerable Falcons secondary, and there is a clear path to success. How vulnerable? Well, Atlanta’s defense is ranked 25th in Football Outsiders DVOA. This definitely makes Bridgewater a great value for his price.
Running Back
Todd Gurley (ATL) $23 vs CAR
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The Panthers-Falcons game has a combined Over/Under of 53.5, the 4th highest on the Sunday slate. This is a game I want to stack and there are certainly a few options to do so. One stack that I always look for is an RB with the opposing team’s QB. For anyone picking the Panthers signal-caller, I also recommend Todd Gurley. Like the Falcons, the Panthers are among the weaker defenses. Football Outsiders has Carolina as the 28th ranked DVOA defense. Also, Carolina has allowed at least 1 rushing TD in all but one game so far this season. For someone like Gurley who is getting ample Red Zone carries, this is a recipe for success.
David Johnson (HOU) $18 vs JAX
Clearly a theme is present. I am attacking the defenses with the lower DVOA rankings. Defensively, it cannot get any lower than the Jaguars who are dead last in the NFL. This week, the Texans have certainly turned through some turnover. Maybe the strategy with a new head coach will be a run-heavy approach. If that is the case, David Johnson will become a great value at $18.
More Value: Kareem Hunt (CLE) $18
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett / D.K. Metcalf (SEA) $31 vs MIN
No this is not déja vu. I have recommended both Seahawks WRs in the past. While both of their prices have gone up, I do not feel they have been raised to make them unplayable. Quite the opposite in fact. I still view Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf as some of the best values on the slate. Deciding between Seattle’s top options is more about personnel preference than anything. Metcalf has been the more consistent option with double-digit fantasy points in every game so far this season. Lockett, on the other hand, is coming off two weeks of 32.5 followed by 4.9 fantasy points. This may be as simple as play Metcalf in cash or 50/50 contests and Lockett in tournaments. Did I also mention that the Vikings-Seahawks contest has the highest combined over/under of the entire week with 57 points? Target this game.
D.J. Chark (JAX) $22 @ HOU
Not to get too repetitive with the DVOA, but it is an important factor. Since the Texans defense is ranked 30th in DVOA, it makes a lot of sense to target the Jaguars skill players. Perhaps RB James Robinson fits your fancy. However, I prefer WR DJ Chark for $3 less. 3 TD on only 15 receptions may not be sustainable long term, but I believe Chark can easily find the End Zone against Houston. And it is an indoor game, which I do tend to prefer for receivers. Chark does make an excellent stack option with either QB Gardner Minshew or on the opposite side of the field, RB David Johnson.
D.J. Moore (CAR) $18 @ ATL
Back to the stack. If you are going to play Teddy Bridgewater, I would recommend pairing him with one of his top receivers. Technically, Robby Anderson has been the #1 WR and the prices finally reflect that. For the first time in 2020, DJ Moore has a lower price in Yahoo than Anderson’s $21. Yes it’s only $2 but the principle of the matter is that Moore could emerge as the top option in any game. Why not against the Falcons secondary where Bridgewater can pick whoever he wants to target?
More Value: Justin Jefferson (MIN) $20
Tight End
George Kittle (SF) vs MIA $28
With so much value everywhere else in the slate, in my opinion, this is the week to pay up at TE. That begins with the highest price option at the position: George Kittle. Back from injury, Kittle exploded for a 32.6 fantasy point performance. Shocker, I am targeting the weak DVOA defensive teams yet again. But with the Dolphins as the 31th ranked defense according to Football Outsiders, that temptation is too much to pass up.
Travis Kelce (KC) vs LV $27
Considering Kittle’s week 4 performance, his ownership will likely be much higher this week. If you are looking for a potential pivot, look no further than the next player on the price list: Travis Kelce. The Chiefs TE has been relatively consistent this season. Any TE that can produce double-digit points with a TD is a huge boost to lineups. And while Kelce has not yet reached the 20 points plateau, a matchup against the Raiders 30th ranked DVOA defense may be just the remedy Kelce is looking for.
More Value: Mark Andrews (BAL) $24
Deep Dive
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) $13 vs ARI
A player with 23 targets in 2 games should probably not be priced at only $13. However, that is exactly what is happening with Jamison Crowder in week 5. Yes, he will be without his starting QB, but Joe Flacco is a capable veteran who will get the ball to his playmakers. For the Jets, that means Crowder at his bargain price.
Devonta Freeman (NYG) @ DAL
Now entering his third game with the team, Devonta Freeman should establish himself as the workhorse. We began to see that in week 4 as Freeman out-touched the rest of the Giants backfield 15-9. Yes, it can be difficult to trust an RB on a team that has yet to score 20 points this season. However, going against the Cowboys 24th ranked DVOA defense, this may be the week to remedy that.
Defense
Los Angeles Rams $15 @ WAS
With fantasy defenses, I love to target backup quarterbacks. And regardless of how bad Dwayne Haskins has played, Kyle Allen is the backup. Entering his first game action of 2020, Allen will have a tough time against the Rams ferocious pass-rush. Sacks and turnover potential are what I look for in a defense. The Rams likely provide those opportunities. Yet, they are not priced in the upper tier of defenses. Exploit that and play what could be the highest-scoring defense this week.
Dallas Cowboys $12 vs NYG
Sometimes, saving $3 is necessary to get the ideal lineup. While the Cowboys defense has struggled they do get a great matchup against the Giants and their offensive line that is ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate, according to Football Outsiders. Still, I would only pivot of the Rams in you absolutely need to save the $3.
Thank you for reading this DFS NFL Yahoo Week 5 article. For more great Daily Fantasy Sports content, be sure to check out Going for 2.
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