Welcome back and to Week 4. Â Looking back at my Week 3 article, all the stacks I wrote up either went off or flopped; no in between. Â I’m happy to report that the Russell Wilson to Doug Baldwin connection finally hit big! Â (I hope you played the Thursday-Monday slate to get the stack in this week). Â Unfortunately, one of my favorite players, Darren Sproles, tore his ACL and broke his arm on the same play. Â Let’s hope he decides to come back for another season so we can play him in DFS again.
I hope you had a profitable week like I did, but oh what could have been if that Matthew Stafford to Golden Tate touchdown counted to end the game….but we move on.
Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel.  I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers.  Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.
Lets dive into Week 4…
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200) and Cowboys Defense ($2,500)
After a week in which game script got away from the Cowboys early in Denver, we saw Ezekiel Elliott get back to his normal workload Monday night against the Cardinals. Â The 22 carries and 4 targets were good to see going into another plus matchup as 6 point home favorites against a Rams team that just let Carlos Hyde run for 25-84-2 on the ground. Â In 2016, the Rams ranked 6th in rush defense and 20th in pass defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Â Through 3 weeks this season, the script has been flipped; the Rams are 19th in rush defense and 6th in pass defense DVOA. Â With a new coaching staff and Wade Phillips moving the defense from a 4-3 to 3-4, this team might still be dealing with some growing pains…or not, I’m no NFL scout. Â I’m not betting on them going into Dallas and having it all sorted out yet. Â Zeke has the best overall points projection of the week, and he’s a lock in cash games (head to heads, double ups, and small field contests). Â Through 3 weeks, Jared Goff has not attempted more than 29 passes in a game. Â The Rams have yet to play in really negative game script, and this could be the first week. Â I am expecting the Cowboys to put points on the board early and force Goff to throw more than 30 times for the first time since Week 14 of last season. Â I’m not convinced that Goff is over the young QB mistakes just yet.
GPP Pivot: Zeke will be one of the highest owned players on the week, so I will be using a passing game stack of Dak Prescott ($6,200), Â Dez Bryant ($6,500), and Robert Woods ($3,900). Â If you make multiple lineups and play to play Zeke on most of them, I advise to have a hedge stack. Â Basically, the thinking is that if Zeke has a let down game, production should funnel to the pass game. Â The total for this game has moved up 1.5 points to 48 and the Rams have gotten 1.5 points on the line moving from +7.5 to +6. Â People much smarter than me think this will be a close high scoring game. Â If Zeke doesn’t go off, we can expect Dak and company to have a nice day. Â Dez Bryant was able to score against Aqib Talib and Patrick Peterson the past two weeks, so I’m not scared of Trumaine Johnson or whoever the Rams trot out there. Â Again, the Rams pass defense has been good so far as a whole, but did give up 7-142 to Pierre Garcon last week. Â On the other side of the ball, I really like Robert Woods. Â I bet you didn’t realize he led the Rams in targets, did you? Â Well he does with 19% of the team’s targets. Â He also leads the team with 31% of the Rams’ total air yards (AirYards.com). Â Woods is also $400 and $2,000 cheaper than Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins, respectively. Â On a PPR site like Draftkings, I think Woods is in play in all formats as a cheap wide receiver.
Trevor Siemian ($5,200), Demaryius Thomas ($6,300), Emmanuel Sanders ($6,100), Jared Cook ($3,400)
After a tough loss traveling across the country to Buffalo, the Broncos return home to face a Raiders team that just got embarrassed on National TV by the Redskins. Â Trevor Siemian and the Broncos receivers have a dream matchup at home against this Raiders secondary. Â Last year’s 25th ranked pass defense (DVOA) has started this season 28th in the same metric. Â The Broncos should be score at will on offense, and I expect to see the Broncos get their QB back on track this week as a home favorite with a 46 point total. Â I have concerns about the Denver backfield with Jamaal Charles getting the goal line touchdown last week, and if this is in response to C.J. Anderson‘s lack of red zone efficiency. Â Per Sharp Football Stats, Anderson has a 27% success rate on red zone carries, to Charles’ 57% (which includes a touchdown). Â If Charles is going to take 10+ touches a game and red zone work, this backfield will get very difficult. Â This leads me to the passing game, that’s much easier to figure out. Â Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas combine for 54% of the team’s targets and 68% of air yards (AirYards.com). Â Sanders is cheaper but expected to be more popular, so let’s just play both! Â The 3-man Denver stack is always in play in plus matchups at home. Â The Raiders side is a lot more difficult, with the Broncos defense being elite. Â The one leak thus far for the Broncos defense has been covering the tight end. Â They rank 25th in pass DVOA vs the tight end and 28th in success rate allowed to tight ends (Sharp Football Stats). Â This could be due to their cornerbacks playing so well that targets are funneled to the tight ends, but it’s still actionable information. Â If we expect Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to be held in check, this opens the door for Jared Cook to have a few extra targets. Â At $3,400, he’s the only Raider I want in my Broncos stacks.
Deshaun Watson ($5,200), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,400), and Rishard Matthews ($4,900)
DeAndre Hopkins has 40% of the Texans’ targets through 3 weeks. Â The volume is outrageous, but like last season the efficiency is not. Â Hopkins has caught 21 of his 37 targets with one touchdown. Â Hopkins will continue to see the most volume out of the players in his $6,400 price range, making him a great cash play until he’s priced higher. Â For tournaments, we need more production from him. Â Being a home underdog against the 24th ranked pass defense by DVOA, the Titans, Hopkins is in a great matchup. Â This should be a low scoring, run heavy game; the issue for the Texans is that they have been unable to sustain any sort of run game thus far. Â With the volume Hopkins is seeing, we don’t need 35 attempts from Deshaun Watson to hit value. Â Watson also doesn’t need to have a high volume passing game to hit fantasy value, because he uses his legs efficiently. Â In his first 2 career starts, Watson has rushed 13 times for 108 yards and 1 touchdown. Â If he can throw for two touchdowns (both to Hopkins), we’re in business with his rushing output. Â Without Corey Davis again, we can look to the Titans #1 receiver, Rishard Matthews. Â Last week I wrote about Eric Decker because I thought he was going to benefit as the slot receiver. Â According to Pro Football Focus, Matthews sees 31% of snaps from the slot; he gets moved all over to get the optimal matchup (because he’s their #1 receiver). Â I ended up moving a lot of my Decker exposure to Matthews last week, as my research continues all the way through Sunday at 1pm. Â Be sure to follow me on Twitter and ask me questions – I’m always willing to help out. Â Back to the football, Matthews has seen 24% of the team’s targets through 3 weeks, and 29% of the air yards (AirYards.com). Â At this point, Matthews is the only Titans player I can trust in dfs.
Eli Manning ($5,700), Odell Beckham ($8,900), Evan Engram ($3,000), and DeSean Jackson ($5,200)
WARNING: Follow the news this weekend on all the Tampa Bay injuries, especially Brent Grimes. Â If he’s out, Odell Beckham will see the same Vernon Hargreaves matchup that Stefon Diggs exploited for 8-173-2 last week. Â Last week the Eagles decided the best course of action was to “shadow” Beckham with Jalen Mills…Pro Football Focus’ lowest graded cornerback in 2016. Â Regardless of the Eagles poor decision, it was enough to tell me Beckham is relatively healthy. Â A matchup with Hargreaves might not be as good as one with shadow Mills, but it’s damn sure close. Â Buccs linebackers Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David are both expected to miss this game, which should open things up in the middle of the field for Evan Engram. Â I’m not a fan of playing rookie tight ends in fantasy, but Engram has seen 5-7-7 targets in his first 3 games. Â For $3,000, Engram is right there with Cook as my favorite cheap tight ends this week. Â The Buccaneers are pretty straight forward: shadow corner on the other side? If no, play Mike Evans. Â If yes, play DeSean Jackson. Â (Evans is realistically always in play because he’s a freak and can win in any matchup). Â Against the Giants and Janoris Jenkins, no need to play Evans. Â Jackson will get plenty of snaps against Eli Apple, currently Pro Football Focus’ 95th ranked corner out of 109 qualified (that’s not good). Â Jackson’s 21.9 yards is 2nd in the NFL behind Martavis Bryant‘s 22.4 yards in aDOT (average depth of target) for receivers with at least 10 targets. Â He should have some opportunities for the home run ball this week, and separation from Eli Apple shouldn’t be a problem for DeSean.
Stack of The Week
Carson Wentz ($6,600), Alshon Jeffery ($6,200), Zach Ertz ($6,300), and Tyrell Williams ($4,400)
My favorite game for fantasy points this week is the Eagles/Chargers matchup. Â We have a total that has risen 1.5 points up to 48, tied for 3rd highest on the slate. Â There’s also been some sharp money placed on the Chargers, moving the line to Chargers -2 at home. Â The Eagles are traveling across the country coming off a huge win against a division rival on a 61 yard field goal. Â The Chargers are 0-3 and are in desperation mode already in Week 4. Â After listening to a few dfs related podcasts early in the week, I was ready to write Alshon Jeffery off, because of the matchup with Casey Hayward. Â On Thursday however, I heard Greg Cosell (the GOAT) say that Hayward has been playing primarily on the left side and did not shadow Tyreek Hill last week. Â I looked into it, and according to Pro Football Focus Hayward has played 85% of snaps from the left corner position. Â I think we have an edge here, as the dfs community as a whole does not seem to have a read on who is shadowing and who isn’t yet. Â Alshon is projected to be around 5% ownership, and this could be a great spot if the Eagles can keep him on the opposite side of Hayward, where rookie Desmond King resides. Â My second favorite Eagles pass catcher this week is Zach Ertz. Â I had been locking him into lineups this season due to his egregious price. Â He’s finally priced appropriately, but I’m still in on him here. Â The Chargers are 31st in pass defense DVOA against the tight end, which includes the 1 reception game for Travis Kelce last week, and 31st in success rate to the tight end (Sharp Football Analysis). Â I think a Carson Wentz stack with Jeffery and Ertz, who combine for 48% and 58% of team targets and air yards, respectively is the best way to stack the Eagles. Â It’s an expensive use of the salary cap, so I like an under-priced Tyrell Williams to run the stack back on the Chargers side. Â I’ll also be using Keenan Allen in my game stacks, but Tyrell also has big upside. Â Keenan has the safest floor, but it’s going to be difficult to fit some of the stud running backs with that incredibly expensive stack. Â As I said earlier with Beckham, all of these Eagles cornerbacks are plus matchups, especially Jalen Mills. Â According to Pro Football Focus, Mills was targeted 21 times last week out of Eli Manning‘s 47 attempts. Â That’s the most targets towards one corner in a game in over a decade…absurd. Â Travis Benjamin is the boom/bust play on the Chargers that can hit big (33% of team air yards per AirYards.com). Â I will have plenty of game stacks from this one, but Wentz-Alshon-Ertz-Tyrell is my favorite.
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0.  I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further.Â
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