Quarterback
Tom Brady (TB) $34 vs BUF
This is the third time this season that Tom Brady has been priced at his season-low $34. One was the first game of the season, while the other was against the Bears defense. In both matches, Brady scored at least 24 fantasy points. For some reason, Yahoo has lowered Brady back to that price point, even though the Bills just lost their best defender for the season. Among all quarterbacks playing in Week 14, he ranked first in fantasy points per game. Brady could definitely maintain that top spot with a solid performance against Buffalo.
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) $23 @ CIN
While the 49ers are normally a run-heavy team, plans sometimes change. Because lead back Elijah Mitchell has been ruled out for Week 14, I wonder if San Francisco simply decided to pass more often. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown over 30 pass attempts only twice this season. That explains why he is priced down at $23. But in both those games, Garoppolo threw multiple TD passes. If given the opportunity for increased pass attempts, Garoppolo could turn into a great value this week.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) $20 @ WAS
Last week was one to forget for Ezekiel Elliott. With only 47 yards from scrimmage, it was his lowest total since Week 1. Part of that was the fact that Elliott was banged up coming into that Week 13 contest. However, in Week 14, it is Elliott’s teammate Tony Pollard who appears to be more injured. Should Pollard miss, Elliott will not only get his typical carry count but he could also be much more involved in the passing game.
At $20, this is Elliott’s lowest price of the season. That was set with the expectation that Pollard would play a bigger role. Take advantage of what could be the best value on the slate. Elliott certainly has the ability to put up top-tier numbers at the RB spot. In the Week 14 edition of the Goal-Line Guide, the Cowboys have the second-best Rushing Goal-Line Grade. That should mean plenty of TD potential for Elliott.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) $18 vs ATL
The rookie RB Chuba Hubbard can be viewed as a value in the right game script. Just look at when the Panthers played in Atlanta earlier. Hubbard had 24 rushing attempts and produced his second-best fantasy performance of the season. Compare that to the previous week, where he was more involved in the passing game (5 targets instead of 2) but only received 12 carries. The result was only 7.6 fantasy points. Hubbard is most likely to succeed in a game Carolina wins or is leading for larger portions. At home against the Falcons may be just the recipe Hubbard needs.
Dontrelle Hilliard (TEN) $17 vs JAX
If there was ever a week to pay down at RB, it’s this one. With so much great value below $20, you can afford to spend up for elite options at all the other positions. One of those value plays is the Titans’ Dontrell Hilliard. While it’s a small sample size, two games in Tennessee and Hilliard has averaged 15 fantasy points per match. His passing game involvement makes him game-script-proof in case the Jaguars take a big lead.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (KC) $30 vs LV
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Last week, I recommended the most expensive WR as a value. That paid off well, and I have similar expectations for one of this week’s top-costing pass catchers. While he is tied for the most expensive WR this week, Tyreek Hill is actually set at a personal season-low of $30. Yes, the Chiefs have struggled over the last month-and-a-half or so. One exception was the Raiders game in Week 10. Kansas City produced 41 points and Hill scored 24 fantasy points.
Chris Godwin $22 / Mike Evans $21 TB vs BUF
There must be something about season-low pricing for wide receivers. I just mentioned Tyreek Hill in the previous paragraph for $30. Well, the same season-low pricing applies to a pair for perimeter pass-catchers in Tampa Bay. Yes, both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are at their lowest costs of 2021. While the Bills defense has been a solid unit this season, they also just lost their best cornerback (and maybe best defender overall) for the season. Without the ability to shut down opposing receivers, I think both Evans and Godwin could feast.
It is then just about personal preference for what type of WR you want to invest in. With a massive target share, (like 17 targets last week) Godwin can smash just on yards and catches (22 fantasy points without a TD). Evans however, is the red-zone monster that needs to score at least one TD to likely pay off his price. But if he finds the end zone multiple times, then he will be one of the best wide receivers of the week.
Tyler Lockett (SEA) $22 @ HOU
In spite of what the pricing says, I consider Tyler Lockett to be the top WR for the Seahawks. Unlike DK Metcalf, who has failed to score double-digit fantasy points since Russell Wilson‘s return, Lockett has actually been productive. For three straight games, Lockett has either scored a TD or produced at least 95 receiving yards. Look for the trend to continue for one more game. Maybe we even see Lockett priced higher than Metcalf next week.
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) $18 vs DET
Perhaps surprisingly, Jerry Jeudy does not have a single receiving TD this season. The nature of scoring variance and regression means that Jeudy is likely to find the end zone at some point. Maybe it’s this week against the Lions. He is coming off of a season-high 77-yard performance last week. Can he improve even further on that total, and perhaps even get that coveted TD.
Tight End
George Kittle (SF) $23 @ CIN
Looking at the TE prices, you will notice that George Kittle is at $23, tied for second at the position. It is not the fact that he is second, but more the margin that Kittle trails the most costly TE ($9 difference). Yet, Kittle is only 0.5 fantasy points per game behind that pricy TE. That is far too much of a difference in cost to make up for barely any difference in production. As Kittle demonstrated last week, he can easily turn in a TE1 overall performance on any week. Especially when the team’s top WR is injured.
Jared Cook (LAC) $14
Speaking of top wide receivers missing game action, that is the case with the Chargers. While the status of the team’s top two options is up in the air, Jared Cook should see additional opportunities from his TE position. TD production is so important and looking at the Goal-Line Guide, the Chargers have the fourth-best Passing Goal-Line Grade of Week 14.
Deep Dive
WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) @ DEN
Again, the absence of key individuals is key to this recommendation. Already, Amon-Ra St. Brown has emerged as the Lions’ top WR. This is especially true with his 12 targets from last week. However, in Week 14, Detroit may be without their best RB and number one TE. That would leave St. Brown as the unquestioned top target. While that could mean extra defensive attention, St. Brown is still a great value at only $13.
Defense
Seattle Seahawks $14 @ HOU
As with most weeks, when it comes to DST, I want to target backup quarterbacks. Regardless of who has been starting for the Texans of late, the QB play has been poor. But especially if Davis Mills starts, I love this matchup for the Seahawks. Houston’s offensive line is ranked 29th in Adjusted Sack rate according to Football Outsiders. The Seattle pass rush should be able to do damage and the secondary can certainly pick off Mills.
Los Angeles Chargers $13 vs NYG
More QB uncertainty. And even better, the Chargers are coming off of a 6 sack performance in Week 13. If the pass-rush can carry that momentum at home against the Giants, they could be in line for another 20-point fantasy game.
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