Jared Kwart from Moxyball.com here, guest-blogging for Geoff and his team here at goingfor2.
We’re still a ways away from week 1 of the NFL season, but for daily fantasy sports lovers, it feels like it’s right around the corner.
Today I’m going to share some thoughts with you on some of the players I’m targeting for week 1 DFS games. Some are better cash game options and others are more for a GPP lineup. I’ve decided to focus primarily on FanDuel as it relates to player salaries and values, as that’s the platform I play on the most.
This is only one example of the great content you can find myself and the team at Moxyball.com. Hope you enjoy, and best of luck out there!
Let’s start by putting the spotlight on the Eagles at Falcons on Monday, September 14th…
Sam Bradford up against the Falcons in what should be a high-scoring game, I have a feeling he will be highly owned. I can’t help but think that Matt Ryan may not get as much love as he should on week 1 – especially for cash games.
Philly allowed a ton of points to opposing QBs in 2014/2015 and I can’t imagine that trend won’t continue at least to a certain degree this year.
Tight end is going to be a very interesting one in the early part of the year, but there are a few that intrigue me for week 1 from a value standpoint. If Zach Ertz is going to be trotting out there for 60%+ of snaps, he should be in for a nice season playing alongside Sam Bradford.
He has the talent to be both an option in the check-down game as well as for some big plays thanks to his size, speed and catch tool. This game is one to have some exposure to as plenty of points should be scored, and Ertz could end up finishing the game with 4 or 5 catches for something like 50 or 60 yards and a score. There is double-digit point upside here for $5,400.
Staying with this game once more, we have a situation on the ground that is worth pointing out. Atlanta was very poor defending the run last year, and I don’t think they will be improving too much this season. Remember DeMarco Murray’s 2014/2015 season stats?
Well, many expect this to be a one year blip as he is changing teams and now suiting up for the Eagles. However, the week 1 matchup is fantastic for Philly RBs and DeMarco should without a doubt be a top 5 option at the position for the season’s first week.
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Ok, ok. Enough about Philly and Atlanta, right? Well, I have one more name to mention here before we get off this game: Julio Jones. His price is high – no question about it. But the production should be there against a team that was very, very poor against the pass in 2014/2015.
He’s healthy coming into the year and is a candidate for 6/120+/1 right out of the gate.
With Arian Foster going on the PUP (return) list, what to do with the Houston backfield?
Depending how this shakes up over the next few weeks, one of Alfred Blue and Chris Polk could be in for a very solid level of production for the price in the season’s first week.
I have a feeling many will be on the Blue train for the next week or two, but as we get closer to week 1 we should see Polk’s name get higher in the ranks.
They went after him in the offseason for a reason, and has plenty of talent to show for himself. All he needs is an opportunity to do so.
The Saints can really throw the ball, but who should we target in week 1?
Brandin Cooks for $7,400 on FanDuel has some appeal. This is a relatively tough matchup going against the Cardinals in week 1, but like many in the fantasy community, I’m very high on Cooks this season. I don’t expect his price to stay under $8,000 for long considering that he’s likely to be a highly targeted piece of the New Orleans offense and could play a Randall Cobb-like role for their air attack.
Yes, the Cardinals are a solid defensive unit. They only allowed 18.7 points against them in 2014 (17% less than the 22.6 league average). But if you look a little deeper, you can see they’re quite susceptible to some big numbers in the passing game, allowing 4,152 total yards against them last year (a full 10% about the league average).
Keep him in your sights for GPPs as he’s the kind of guy that could go off for a big play or two like he did in 2014/2015 before going down to injury in November. He had 3 games of 17+ FanDuel points last year in his rookie season. He’s a GPP option for me rather than someone to look at for cash games considering he’s likely to see a lot of Patrick Peterson.
Who is going to catch the ball for Jacksonville?
Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee should be getting plenty of love in week 1.
Carolina finished the 2014 season as a below-average defensive team, allowing 23.4 points per game. They were worse against the run than the pass, but still gave up 25 touchdowns in the air to opponents. Sure, it’s nothing special if you’re looking for a truly weak defense, but there’s no issue being league average from time to time (which is exactly what the average team gave up in the air with 25.2 TDs/team as the metric here).
Marqise Lee ($5,600) and Allen Robinson ($6,100) have a ton of value at their respective prices. We should see both of these guys lining up on opposite ends of Blake Bortles in week one.
A quick spotlight on week 1 value quarterbacks…
In my eyes, week 1 is not a week to spend up for a top QB unless you really want to have some shares of the guy from Green Bay. He is priced at almost $10,000 (and rightfully so) considering his elite production and consistency week-to-week.
The next 3 guys Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees from a salary standpoint. None of them excite me in their respective matchups, despite the fact they should be fine for season-long formats considering the early round pick (or high auction price) you’ve likely spent on them.
In cash games on FanDuel, I really like to make sure I find value at the QB position so that I can bulk up at other key positions like RB and WR. Here are a few value QBs for week 1:
Joe Flacco vs Broncos ($8,200) – The over/under in the early going is sitting at 53 points, which is nice and high, with the Broncos favored by 4 points. The Broncos were about as league average of a defense as it gets in 2014 (22.1 PF/G vs a league average of 22.6), ranking 17th in the league in this regard. They allow very little on the ground (3rd in 2014) so the yardage and scoring really comes from the air when you play Denver.
I really like the weapons around Flacco and the Ravens this year, and I don’t think many people are going to be expecting big things from him in 2015. There’s a nice amount of value to roll with here in a game where his team should score over 20 points. I see 250+ yards and a couple touchdowns as a floor.
Carson Palmer vs Saints ($7,700) – The Saints finished 28th in the league from a team defense perspective last year, allowing 26.5 points (17% higher than the league average). Even though New Orleans’ biggest weakness is defending the ground game, I think there’s plenty of value here with Palmer at only $7,700 in week 1.
The Cardinals are favored in week 1 and have a total of almost 50 points on the board at this point in time. He was well on his way to a solid season last year before succumbing to injury, and I expect him to get back to his solid ways in 2015 with even more assets in the passing game. Yes, Michael Floyd just got hurt the other day, but John Brown should step up for Palmer as early as week 1 to make up for that loss in the offense. Look for a similar output from Palmer as I’ve predicted from Flacco (250+, 2 TDs).
Andy Dalton ($7,100) – He’s arguably the best guy to go with if you are looking for value at the QB spot in week 1. The Raiders are his week 1 opponent, who ranked dead last in the league in points against last year (28.3 per game, 25% above the league average). The Raiders defense finished with only 9 interceptions in total, which made them one of only 6 teams who had single-digit numbers in that regard. The over/under is only 44.5 points right now, but this shouldn’t scare you off considering a 20+ point outing is in the cards for the Bengals.
I’m expecting a bounce-back year for A.J. Green and for Marvin Jones to remind us why he was a breakout candidate coming into 2014. Tyler Eifert has declared himself healthy as well and is a nice upgrade over Jermaine Gresham in the passing game. Lots to like here for one of the lowest-price starting QBs in week 1.
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