Kyler Murray became just the second rookie in NFL history to throw for more than 3,500 yards (3,722) and rush for 500 yards (544) this year, joining Cam Newton. Until Week 17, when he lost two, he had not lost a fumble. He had 24 total touchdowns (20 passing, four rushing), with multiple passing touchdowns in eight games.
Murray also took a tied for league-high 48 sacks behind a lackluster offensive line, and the weapons around him need to be upgraded. Assuming some semblance of improvement in the talent around him, better things seem to be in store for next year.
As it was Murray finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback as a rookie, as a tribute to the value he adds as a runner as well as avoidance of turnovers (seven of his 12 interceptions came in three games).
Assuming Kenyan Drake is re-signed, the Cardinals have a productive back that fits Kliff Kingsbury‘s offense. If wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald retires though, that’s a notable void that will be hard to replace. But let’s assume a net positive offseason adding talent around Murray for the Cardinals, with offensive line reinforcements as well as skill position weapons added via free agency and the draft.
With easily tabbed improvement next year, lets’s project fantasy points based on a projection for Murray in 2020. Let’s do a point per 25 passing yards, four points per passing touchdown, docking two points for an interception and one for a lost fumble.
Kyler Murray 2020 Projection
Passing: 3,925 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, three lost fumbles-232 points
Rushing: 550 rushing yards, four touchdowns-79 points
That’s 311 fantasy points, which feels a little conservative based on the same rushing production for Murray. Any uptick in that, which could easily happen, and here’s a top-five fantasy quarterback fairly quickly.
While I consider it a smaller percentage probability, if you think a push to over 4,000 passing yards and more 30 touchdowns is reasonable Murray’s virtually a lock to finish as a top-five fantasy signal caller in 2020. In any case, depending on where his ADP falls, there’s league-winning upside here as Murray attempts to follow the second year breakout template of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
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