WR Michael Pittman (IND)
2020 Stats: 40 receptions for 503 yards, 1 TD; 26 rushing yards
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman started his rookie season slowly, with nine catches (on 12 targets) for 73 yards over the first three games. Then he missed three games after surgery to fix compartment leg syndrome in his calf. Later on, though he didn’t miss any more games, he was considered a close contact to a Colts staff member who tested positive for COVID-19 heading into Week 9 and entered the concussion protocol between Week 16 and 17.
Pittman ended the 2020 season on a high note though, with five catches for a team-high 90 yards on a team-high 10 targets in the Colts’ playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills.
If Pittman had a peak run as a rookie, it was from Week 9-14. In those six games, he had 23 receptions (on 37 targets) for 339 yards and a touchdown. All five regular season games he topped 40 yards in came over that stretch, as did five of the seven regular season games he had at least five targets. In that stretch, he was WR34 in full PPR, WR32 in standard scoring and WR34 in half-PPR. So WR3 was Pittman’s peak run as a fantasy asset during his rookie season.
The Colts re-signed T.Y. Hilton, and they’ll be hoping Parris Campbell can stay healthy. Zach Pascal will be back for depth. But unless Indianapolis trades for Julio Jones, which is unlikely even though it makes a lot of sense, Pittman is lined up to the favorite target for new quarterback Carson Wentz.
Here are some interesting notes from Pro Football Network’s James Fragoza.
-Carson Wentz loves big-bodied receivers. Since Wentz joined the Eagles in 2016, the team’s leading receiver has been 6-foot-2 or over and 215+ pounds.
-By year, Philadelphia’s No. 1 wideout in terms of yardage was Jordan Matthews in 2016 (804), Alshon Jeffery from 2017-2019 (789, 843, and 490), and Travis Fulgham in 2020 (539). Who is the biggest receiver currently on the Colts?
I left out the end of what Fragoza wrote in that second paragraph for dramatic effect. Pittman comes in at 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds. According to Player Profiler, his Speed Score lands in the 93rd Percentile and his Catch Radius is in the 89th percentile.
Michael Pittman Jr. led all rookies in YAC per reception, finishing 2nd among ALL the NFL WRs in 2020 pic.twitter.com/GEzcR1Pff4
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) May 24, 2021
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Pittman’s rookie season was thrown off course early by a pretty serious leg injury. Following an offseason where he was not able to build much ideal rapport with Philip Rivers. Then Hilton re-emerged for a stretch to diminish his target share.
If Pittman were to double his rookie season catch and yardage numbers this years, as Fragoza hinted, the math is straight-forward: 80 catches for 1,006 yards. Sprinkle in something like five touchdowns, and that would have been low-end WR2 range in 2020 (over 16 games).
Right now, via Fantasy Football Calculator, Pittman lands with an ADP of WR41 in 12-team standard (pick 9.08) and full PPR (pick 9.05). That reflects the doubt about Wentz more than anything. By comparison, Hilton is coming in at WR40 in 12-team standard and WR52 in 12-team full PPR right now.
If the Colts trade for Jones, the door doesn’t have to be slammed on Pittman’s breakout potential for this year. I’ll set the bar at WR24 (low-end WR2) in fantasy no matter what, regardless of format, with only a slight adjustment necessary for his projection if Jones is added.
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Projection: 78 receptions for 1,015 yards, 6 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 72%
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