Free agency in the NFL may not be as crazy as the NBA but it’s still crazy nonetheless. Not only can free agents choose their destinations, teams have the option to cut some of their biggest stars for cap space purposes, creating opportunities for players and teams across the league. With no guarantees other than the dollar amount that is on their contracts, players move left and right just as they do in the NBA. Players odds of starting and finishing their careers with just one team aren’t impossible but slim for the majority.
The movement from one team to another can have major impacts on how we view those players from a fantasy perspective. Questions and concerns begin to loom for fantasy owners about how a player will do with a change of scenery. A particular player may have had a tremendous season the year prior but will they have similar results on their new team? It’s fair to be skeptical. Take DeMarco Murray for example.
Murray led the league in fantasy points by a wide margin in 2014 as the lead running back of the Dallas Cowboys. After his huge season, Murray looked to cash in on a new contract as he headed for free agency. The Cowboys division rivals, Philadelphia Eagles, swooped in and signed Murray to a five-year deal. Even though former Eagles head coach Chip Kelly was well-known for running an uptempo, high-powered offense, the majority of fantasy owners believed Murray’s numbers would decline. Their instincts were correct. By no means was Murray awful in 2015, but his numbers did regress and nowhere near his value, finished 15th among running backs in PPR formats, and 18th in standard scoring.
Sometimes, however, a change of scenery can actually boost a player’s value and it’s important to take notice. A player may have been driven down the depth chart on their previous team and given the opportunity to breakout in their new home. Below are some names that are dawning new jerseys this season and could have huge fantasy impacts with their new teams.
Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions
Marvin Jones spent the first four years of his career in Cincinnati but is now a member of the Detroit Lions after signing a five-year contract this off-season. Honestly, the timing couldn’t be more perfect for Jones and his future owners. Calvin Johnson is now retired, leaving Jones and Golden Tate as the leading receivers for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford to rely on.
Jones is coming off his best season in which he recorded 65 receptions for 816 yards. He will hope to improve in the touchdown department as he found the end zone just 4 times last year. Jones will have more opportunities for touchdowns and should see somewhere over 100 targets this coming season. According to Fantasy Pros, Jones is the 36th ranked wide receiver going into the season. Last season, he finished 35th on a slow-paced, run-happy Bengals offense, that features Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green. Jones could be great value to find in the mid-rounds.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans
Yep, this guy again. Murray was traded to the Titans shortly after free agency hit, following his disappointing season in Philadelphia. Murray may have underperformed under Chip Kelly last year, but honestly find me an Eagle who didn’t. I’ll wait. The season ended ugly with Murray as both Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles finished the last three weeks with more touches. Murray was none too pleased. Kelly was let go by the Eagles management one week prior to the season finale. Come the start of the new year, so was Murray.
Murray now gets a fresh start on what looks to be an improved Titans squad. Marcus Mariota now has a season under his belt and should show signs of improvement as he continues to develop. Getting Murray involved a lot in the offense should help with that development. The Titans did draft Derrick Henry in May, but you can expect for the Titans to lean on Murray heavily throughout the year until Henry is ready. Right now, Murray is ranked 17th among running backs and should be viewed as a high-end RB2.
Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans
In our first round NFL Mock Draft, I mentioned that Lamar Miller would be worth the reach to select with your first pick if you’re drafting out of the top 5. Miller was never given the full workload that he deserved in Miami but now has the opportunity to put up career numbers in Houston. His abilities as a runner and as a pass catcher out of the backfield have him primed to finish among the elites of fantasy football.
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Miller may have had inconsistent numbers last season in Miami, but none of it really was his fault. The Dolphins, coached then by Joe Philbin, often looked away from Miller for whatever the reason, even when the run game looked to be working well. Now, Miller gets the opportunity to take over Arian Foster‘s former role. Foster averaged roughly 20 carries a game throughout his career in Houston as the bell cow of the Texans backfield. If you believe that Alfred Blue is good enough to take a huge chunk of Miller’s touches just ask yourself, ‘when has Blue ever been good enough when given an opportunity?’
Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets
Matt Forte now finds himself in a new city after spending the first eight seasons of his career with the Chicago Bears. Forte finds himself in a good spot with the Jets poised to be a major focal point of their offense. Forte will turn 31 during the season so he probably won’t have quite the workload he carried in Chicago, especially with the veteran Jet Bilal Powell backing him up. While Powell could continue to be the third down back for New York, Forte will see the majority of first and second downs.
Powell’s specialty is in the passing game but Forte excels in that area of his game as well. Forte is only two years removed from recording an astonishing 102 receptions in 2014 and has caught no less than 44 (twice) for a season throughout his career. Powell just reached his career high with 47 last season. In the past, Forte has been that 2-for-1 type player that gets you fantasy points on the ground and in the passing game. Forte is projected as a 3rd-4th round selection for league drafts this season. That’s slightly lower than where we’re used to seeing Forte projected but he still should be considered a solid RB2 with, obvious, RB1 potential.
Coby Fleener, TE, New Orleans Saints
Many thought that the moment the Indianapolis Colts selected Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener back-to-back out of Stanford in 2012, that the two would create a fantasy galore between them. But then, the Colts selected another tight end later that day in the third round with their selection of Dwayne Allen. At that point, the sense that a logjam could be created among the two tight ends became a possibility.
Even though Fleener was still clearly the better fantasy option, that’s basically what happened. Now in New Orleans, Fleener has the opportunity to finally breakout in a Saints offense that loves to involve their tight ends. Drew Brees, no doubt, missed Jimmy Graham last season but he still managed to help Ben Watson finish with a career year. Watson is almost at the end of his career, while Fleener is in the prime of his. As of now, Fleener is ranked as the 6th-best tight end option, projected to go between the 6th-8th rounds. With potential of finishing as a top 5 tight end, Fleener could be a tremendous value to find in that range.
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