Russell Wilson (QB24) – Wilson is averaging just under 12 fantasy points per game this season. He’s been banged up a bit this year and his poor play coupled with his injuries have made owners nervous. Wilson hasn’t run much this year, hurting his value, and only has two touchdowns. What we know is Russell Wilson has a ton of upside. I’m buying Wilson hoping his lack of production is injury-based and hoping he returns to pre-injury form later in the year.
Lamar Miller (RB19) – Miller has at least 21 carries in each of his games this season. The reason he comes in at RB19 is that he hasn’t scored this season. With Miller’s volume (84 total touches), it’s shocking he hasn’t scored yet. Buy Miller before he scores his first touchdown.
Eddie Lacy (RB26) – Lacy is another running back who has not scored this season. Aaron Rodgers has taken two rushing TDs this year. At the beginning of the year, I expected James Starks to steal some of Lacy’s opportunities, but with only nine rushing yards on the year, Starks is far behind Lacy. Lacy went over 100 yards in week 3, and on a good offense, the scoring opportunities will come.
Also buy – Derrick Henry (RB42), Kenneth Dixon (RB92)
Odell Beckham Jr (WR30) – Beckham Jr. has 30 targets and 280 receiving yards this year. He has not scored and is currently in the longest scoring drought in his career. He posted 7 catches for 121 yards last week while covered by Josh Norman for most of the game. There is nothing wrong with Beckham Jr. and he’s still one of the premiere scorers in the NFL.
Brandon Marshall (WR59) – Injuries and poor quarterback play have slowed Marshall this season. Again, we have a player who has not scored this season but is set to see positive touchdown regression as still has 27 targets this year.
Jordan Reed (TE13) – Reed has 24 targets this season which is third among tight ends. He also hasn’t scored, yet every tight end ahead of him has at least one touchdown. I expect Reed to find the end zone soon and get back to top-five tight end status.
Matt Ryan (QB1) – Matt Ryan is the current QB1 in fantasy football. Ryan has 970 passing yards, 7 passing TDs and only 1 interception. Ryan is an obvious sell-high due to his easy schedule (Tampa Bay, Oakland, New Orleans). His next three weeks are against Carolina, Denver, and Seattle. Ryan’s 6.8 percent touchdown percentage is double his touchdown percentage from last season and 2.3 percent higher than his career average. This shows he’s likely due for some negative touchdown regression. Additionally, 18 quarterbacks have thrown more passes than Matt Ryan showing his QB1 status isn’t based on an increase in volume. Sell Matt Ryan before week 4 to maximize your return.
Also sell – Ryan Tannehill (QB8)
Latavius Murray (RB15) – Half of Murray’s fantasy points have come from touchdowns this season. He’s scored a touchdown in each of his first three games but has just 32 carries on the year. Murray is stuck in a three-man committee with Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington who have combined for one more carry and 93 more rushing yards than Murray. The touchdowns are the only thing saving Murray’s value. Sell him before the touchdowns disappear.
Devonta Freeman (RB12) – The Falcons played against the 18, 27, and 31 ranked defenses (Football Outsiders DVOA) over the past three weeks. They play 7, 5, and 1 ranked defenses over the next three weeks. Freeman and Tevin Coleman are in a clear committee with Coleman taking more goal line carries and cutting into the passing role as well.
Tevin Coleman (RB5) – For most of the same reasons as Freeman, Coleman is a sell-high. Coleman leads the league in rushing touchdowns, but he’s scored almost half of his fantasy points from those touchdowns. With only 110 rushing yards through three weeks (36.7 yards per game), Coleman’s reliance on touchdowns is why he is a clear sell-high.
Terrelle Pryor (WR17) – Pryor had a huge game in week 3, accounting for 72 percent of his fantasy points in 2016. My issue is he was shadowed by Byron Maxwell, a below-average corner, for most of the game. With more talented quarterbacks, Pryor’s first two weeks of the season were relatively poor. Unless Pryor consistently lines up at quarterback, I’m not expecting him to be a top 30 wide receiver this season, especially with Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman returning later in the year.
Mike Wallace (WR9) – Wallace has more than half his fantasy points from touchdowns this season. Averaging only 3.3 catches on six targets per game, Wallace’s current level of fantasy production will not continue.
Also sell – Sterling Shepard (WR15)
The tight end position has been brutal this season. I don’t believe there are any players you can really sell high at this point. Jack Doyle would be a candidate, but he’s owned in about 10% of leagues. Jacob Tamme was a candidate, but had just 28 yards in week 3, making it harder to sell him. A lot of people may see Kyle Rudolph (TE2) a sell high. While I don’t expect him to finish the season as the TE2, there’s plenty of optimism that Rudolph can finish the year inside the top ten. Rudolph leads all tight ends in targets and is a red-zone threat at 6’6”. I would not actively look to sell Kyle Rudolph.
Sell high (If possible) – Jack Doyle (TE4), Jacob Tamme (TE7), Vance McDonald (TE9)
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