Read also: “Fantasy Players Who Gained the Most Value Post-NFL Draft“
Kenneth Walker (SEA) Managers
I’ve always thought Kenneth Walker was overrated. I begrudgingly had him as my dynasty RB5 heading into the draft due to age and apparent volume. As JJ Zachriason pointed out on Day 2, Walker had a very low success rate rank among high-workload backs. While Walker did calm some concerns about whether he could catch passes, I was not super-impressed with his 2022 season overall and it’s 13.5 PPR FPPG.
Now the Seahawks bring in Zach Charbonnet, a highly-touted rookie with round 2 draft capital who is arguably better and inarguably more well-rounded. This projects to be, at the very least, a big headache for Walker and his fantasy managers. I expect Charbonnet to quickly be the 40 of a 60/40 split and could be the 60 by the end of the season. The good news is Seattle likes to run and is showing they are committed to it, so the hit to Walker’s overall volume may not be massive. But if you were heavily invested in him in Dynasty, Friday night was not fun for you. Brian Ford @ffjunkie_
Zach Kuntz (NYJ)
Zach Kuntz was a huge (physically and otherwise) post-combine darling with a 10.00 RAS whom many fantasy analysts were mixing in with the top eight or so tight ends in the 2023 class. That includes me; he was my pre-draft TE8. On the eve of the draft, he was generally projected as an early day 3 pick. Instead, Kuntz slid to the 7th round. If you’re looking for a reason to be hopeful, the landing spot (the Jets) isn’t bad. The team can start the season with veteran Tyler Conklin in place, but he is not a world-beater.
The rest of the tight end room is CJ Uzomah and Jeremy Ruckert – and Kenny Yeboah if he is even still around. In other words, the path to opportunity isn’t tough. He has size and athleticism and has a solid veteran quarterback. Kuntz could develop into a fantasy-relevant tight end at some point, but it will take some time. And that path starts with a long fall in the draft into the seventh round. That’s not great, so he is unfortunately a loser. Brian Ford @ffjunkie_
Embed from Getty ImagesDonovon Peoples-Jones (CLE)
Donovon Peoples-Jones is developing into a good NFL wide receiver showing us skills with big play potential. In 2023, I expected him to take another step forward in his progression becoming an asset for our fantasy teams. Unfortunately, Peoples-Jones will see a major decrease in playing time, going from 2nd on the depth chart to now the Browns’ 4th wide receiver.
He already lost some value after acquiring Elijah Moore from the Jets, and now the Browns chose Cedric Tillman in the 3rd round of the NFL draft. Tillman is a similar receiver type to Peoples-Jones, except he’s better in every aspect of the game. As of now, barring injury, there is very little value for Donavon Peoples-Jones in any format on our fantasy football teams. Jamie Perog @JamiePerog
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)
Kenneth Gainwell, Boson Scott and Trey Sermon are the holdovers from the 2022 Eagles backfield. The Eagles supplemented their running back room early in free agency with the affordable acquisition of Rashaad Penny. While they left the 2023 NFL Draft without selecting a running back, the Eagles did trade for D’Andre Swift after the Lions spent a first-round pick on Jahmyr Gibbs. After losing Miles Sanders in free agency, the Eagles have essentially spent a fourth-round pick replacing him via Swift.
Gainwell had a 19.1% opportunity share in 2022, with only two games of 10+ carries and never exceeding four targets. Swift earned a 36.9% opportunity share for Detroit in 2022, despite missing three games and seemingly falling out of favor with the more powerful Jamaal Williams. Even better, Swift averaged five targets per game, with four games exceeding that figure. Gainwell’s ceiling is what we saw in 2022 with Swift and Penny in town. Chew Russell @FatherDynasty
Late 1sts and early 2nds in Superflex
I wasn’t thrilled with this neighborhood in rookie mocks before the draft to begin with. Players going in this range like Quentin Johnston, Will Levis, Jalin Hyatt, and Devon Acahne were all firmly “out at cost, if not full fade” players for me. I categorized others in that range, such as Josh Downs, Zay Flowers, and Michael Mayer, as “too early – I can get a discount version later.” In other words, it was a sort of flat, low-value area for me. I was hoping a running back or two would come unglued from the group clustered in the mid-second round and help us out. That didn’t really happen. That said, the market (probably you reading this) was higher on those picks; and either way, that area of the draft is a little rough now. After the 1.07 in superflex rookie drafts, it’s pretty much the wild west at the moment.
Still, there are early trends and small sample size ADP data telling us that Levis, Achane, Flowers, and Mayer are all still in that range (with only Achane and Mayer really looking very good from an NFL Draft perspective). They are also showing us that Zach Charbonnet(whose situation the community likes less than I do), Kendre Miller, Jonathan Mingo, and even Rashee Rice are being chosen there. The new WR2 in Buffalo, Dalton Kincaid (yes, WR) crept up there, which does help (though it hurts his value at cost).
The good news for me (and maybe you) is that players I like the same or more (Cedric Tillman, Tank Bigsby, and Marvin Mims to name just a few) are getting pushed down into very affordable areas. Still, in general, most people holding picks roughly in the 1.09/1.10 to 2.04/2.05 range don’t feel as good about it as they did on the eve of the draft. If you are one of those people, see what trades are out there to move back for more picks, including futures (2024 and 2025). Brian Ford @ffjunkie_
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Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
I’ll take the low-hanging fruit here and shine a light on maybe the biggest loser of them all in this draft. Allgeier breaks the Falcons’ single-season rookie rushing record only to be rewarded with being replaced in Year 2. Allgeier was a good story last season, and any fantasy managers that owned him were pleasantly surprised by the season he had, but the honeymoon is over, Bijan Robinson is now the lead back in Atlanta and Allgeier will fade off into the background. Geoff Lambert @GeoffLambert77
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