One of the best villains in the history of cinema is Bane from The Dark Knight Rises. In a memorable underground fight scene with Batman, the Caped Crusader kills the lights in hopes of using stealth to take down his monstrous opponent. The plan backfires epically, with Bane famously chiding Batman about his prowess in the obscurity. “Oh, you think darkness is your ally. But you merely adopted the dark; I was born in it, molded by it.
I didn’t see the light until I was already a man, by then it was nothing to me but BLINDING!” Heat is my darkness. I was born in the heat, molded by it. With nary a shade tree as far as the eye can see, the scorching Sacramento valley is also home to the most fertile soil on Earth. Chile pepper plants grew abundant yields of fruit every year in our gardens. Some were hotter than others; that was the surprise. A young boy quickly understood risk tolerance and respect for nature’s capabilities. I was always aggressive, to a fault. My grandpa would turn beet red laughing at my convulsions from biting into a habanero because he said I was too chicken. With my lips and gums still tingling from the lesson, he would change the subject to sweet tea and football.
Grandpa Willie didn’t have a favorite team. The 49ers and Raiders were the games on TV every Sunday, but all I remember him saying back then was that the Jets were boring to watch. I was a Cowboys fan from the beginning. Troy, Emmitt, and Michael were dominating the league to the rhythm of Pat Summerall’s placid timbre. I was obsessed with the game. I wasn’t more than eight when he and my dad went in to buy me a preseason NFL guide from the rack at the NuWay Market. Over sweet tea and fried chicken, Sundays were the one day my voice was heard in the family. I didn’t need Twitter to tell me when I got wild with my predictions.
All that’s left of Willie is in my heart and the recipes in my blood. I’m considered by some to be an expert on football matters, but I often flashback to that kid with his cap flipped backward like Griffey, telling anyone within earshot that the Cowboys were going to win it all. After all, they had just beaten the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX. Little did I know, that would be a bold prediction that would kickstart a drought that persists to this day. Today, it isn’t good enough to predict which team will win it all. There’s a narrative to every season, which nobody can foretell.
I will attempt to bite into this ghost pepper. I created the hashtag #PICANTakes, initially to guess outlandish but plausible weekly performances. This year, we’re planting the seeds. We’re lighting the fuse on the most interesting NFL season to date. The NFL is a powder keg of simmering drama, and I’m here to read the tea leaves and tell every team’s story before it happens. You’re going to need a big, tall glass of milk for this one.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
PICANTakes: This will be the highest-scoring offense in the entire league. The overall PPG record is in danger of falling. In a 17-game season, the record for most points scored in a season will be shattered. Dak Prescott will look as spry as ever, coming off his gruesome injury to pass for 5,200 yards and 40 touchdowns. He will win both MVP and Comeback Player of the Year. Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup will each surpass 1,000 receiving yards. Ezekiel Elliott will score at least 15 touchdowns but will relinquish some of his touches to breakout star, Tony Pollard. The two will combine for over 3,000 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns.
Weak Sauce: The defense lacks speed, experience, and a solid pass rush. The entire team is very thin on the depth chart. Missing on a top corner in the draft will leave this defense struggling to get off the field, feeding into the offensive prediction. If the defense can stay healthy, the best-case scenario is avoiding the basement in total defense under Dan Quinn. There just aren’t enough playmakers to make the base Cover 3 scheme viable in this league. Mike McCarthy is the type of coach that holds a talented team back with his propensity to stay vanilla. If this team makes the playoffs, their only chance at a deep run is getting hot at the right time.
Washington Football Team
PICANTakes: Antonio Gibson is an animal. He takes over as a quasi bell-cow back and his efficiency gets even better from his staggering rookie figures. With Gibson’s receiving prowess and unique size-speed makeup, he surpasses 1,500 scrimmage yards and 12 combined touchdowns. Terry McLaurin improves yet again with a more capable downfield quarterback, but it is Curtis Samuel and rookie Dyami Brown who actually exceed expectations and ADP with their performances. This vaunted defense regresses slightly, but are still top-10 overall.
Weak Sauce: Ryan Fitzpatrick’s carriage turns into a pumpkin, reminding everyone why he has bounced around the league like a band on tour. Riverboat Ron pulls his remaining hair out when Fitz Magic costs them wins with crippling late-game turnovers. JD McKissic suffers a similar fate, relinquishing most of his receiving work to Gibson, who fades down the stretch. There will be calls for Heinecke. Secondary gets roasted by good offenses, but mostly by Dallas and Philly, which ruins their playoff chances.
Philadelphia Eagles
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PICANTakes: The rookies blossom early for this team. Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen create a lethal hybrid between the Colts and Chargers systems from 2020, running 21-speed personnel more than any other team in the league. Devonta Smith assumes the Keenan Allen role in this offense and rakes in over 90 receptions and 1100 yards. Kenny Gainwell, in tandem with Miles Sanders, is an unrelenting force in the short passing game, much like Austin Ekeler and Nyheim Hines. In PPR formats, Gainwell overtakes Sanders in fantasy points per game. Jalen Hurts is a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but commits too many turnovers and his job in 2022 is in serious danger.
Weak Sauce: The defense regresses further. A brutal schedule, combined with an utter lack of athleticism on defense, puts the unit at the very bottom of rushing and passing defensive metrics. Once a team strength proudly run by Jim Johnson, this unit is void of talent and will be a dire need in free agency and the draft next year.
New York Giants
PICANTakes: Saquon Barkley! Limited touches in the first two games still yield massive production. Saquon is back in form for the entire season. He threatens Christian McCaffrey as the top-scoring running back in fantasy. He is the rising tide that lifts all ships. Kenny Golladay’s numbers are more modest than his usual, but his presence and knack for timely big plays open the offense for Barkley to impose his will on opponents. Daniel Jones cuts down on turnovers dramatically, but still lacks the intelligent gameplay and killer instinct to put the team on his back. One of the most well-coached defenses exceeds expectations, but they don’t force enough turnovers to tilt the record over .500
Weak Sauce: Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepherd all do more field-clogging than threatening defenses. Jones struggles to advance to his second read and leans on Barkley as his safety valve. Rookie KaDarius Toney is a non-factor, from a lack of creativity from Jason Garrett and an inability to gain separation from the slot. Giants will lose more close games than any other team in the NFL this season.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PICANTakes: Tom Brady is accused of being an immortal vampire. He builds upon his seventh championship run by exceeding his passing yards per game from 2020. The continuity in the passing game advances and is lethal to the tune of over 5,000 yards. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown both return to the 1,000 yard club, but Mike Evans falls short for the first time in his career. OJ Howard has his first healthy season and finishes as a top-10 tight end in PPR points. The defense is a reverse of 2020, with a more-experienced secondary and aging pass rushers. They are surprisingly poor against the run and getting after the passer.
Weak Sauce: The running game struggles to gain momentum. Ronald Jones is the most effective runner, but Arians refuses to give him more touches over Leonard Fournette, who looks like he aged five years overnight. Brady puts the team on his back with a stellar regular season as a one-dimensional team, but the Bucs lack the steam to make a deep run to go back-to-back. The run defense regresses in stunning fashion and Tompa Bay is in jeopardy of disbanding after getting bludgeoned in the Divisional Round by the 49ers.
Carolina Panthers
PICANTAKES: Joe Brady’s offense explodes into prominence as a lethal, balanced unit. Sam Darnold shows that the Gase Effect is very real and more staggering than anyone could imagine. After setting a career-high in passing yards in Week 1 against his former team, Darnold continues on to surpass 4,000 yards passing. Christian McCaffrey is once again back at the pinnacle of fantasy football, with 2,200 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns.
DJ Moore is the main beneficiary of Darnold’s breakout, posting 1,300 yards receiving and a career-high eight touchdowns. Robby Anderson remains his steady self, but the biggest surprise is the emergence of rookie Terrace Marshall, who puts up nearly 1,000 receiving yards and scores six of the most acrobatic touchdowns you’ll see. The young defense is much better than last season, leading the NFL in forced turnovers.
Weak Sauce: The tight end position is still largely ignored, with newcomer Dan Arnold scoring a couple of short touchdowns, but somehow invisible the rest of the time. The offensive line predictably struggles to keep Darnold upright against the good defenses, which eventually rears its head in a Wild Card Round loss for the upstart Panthers. Smart quarterbacks still pick this defense full of ducklings apart.
New Orleans Saints
PICANTakes: A true quarterback committee! Sean Payton, grieving the retirement of Drew Brees, comes completely unhinged when Jameis Winston exceeds expectations when on the field. The Taysom Hill experiment persists in a frenetic and inconsistent fashion throughout the season, which ultimately dooms the Saints down the stretch. Alvin Kamara puts up impressive numbers yet again, but cameras often catch him staring off into the ether, reminiscing about accurately-thrown swing and wheel routes, and angle and option routes fired in stride and on time.
The offense is abysmal in the red zone without Brees and Michael Thomas, who “reaggravates” his ankle injury an hour before kickoff on the game he is expected to return. The defense is stout yet again, but falls victim to compromised field position and ends up middle of the road. Latavius Murray is called upon more, but his tread wears thin by midseason. Team MVP, Wil Lutz leads the NFL in attempted field goals.
Weak Sauce: Sean Payton refrains from increasing Kamara’s workload to save him for the playoffs, but Taysom Hill ends up even more turnover prone than 30/30 man, Jameis Winston. With Thomas out, the receiving corps of Marquez Callaway, Trequan Smith, Chris Hogan, and Adam Trautman surprisingly don’t create large enough throwing windows for this offense to thrive. Saints narrowly miss the playoffs after a 13-12 loss to Miami in Week 17, where they barely crack 200 yards of total offense. Payton resigns his position after the season, blaming the referees for their lackluster performance.
Atlanta Falcons
PICANTakes: Aside from monumental seasons from two of the brightest receiving stars in the game, this team is truly dreadful. Calvin Ridley ends up as the top PPR wide receiver in fantasy, hauling in 125 receptions for 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns, but the biggest story is the rookie unicorn, Kyle Pitts. The fourth overall pick obliterates every receiving record for rookie tight ends with ease, only putting his hand in the ground at the inline position 15% of his snaps. His 84 receptions, 1,150 yards, and 12 touchdowns on the season presents the question of his fantasy position eligibility for 2022. Matt Ryan’s arm nearly falls off, cracking 600 attempts for the fourth consecutive season.
Weak Sauce: The Falcons defense is the stone worst in the NFL, allowing more than 30 points per game. Head coach Arthur Smith is forced to abandon his run-first mentality early on, when the team falls behind big early in each game. Starting running back Mike Davis has a promising beginning to his first-ever season as the leader of a backfield, but much like in 2020, he slows down abruptly from overuse. Qadree Ollison, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Javian Hawkins are rotated throughout the season, but none produce anything meaningful. Atlanta is faced with another top-five pick to decide on a new quarterback or finally address the woeful defense.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
PICANTakes: The well-laid plans for Jimmy Garoppolo to remain the starting quarterback through the 2021 season are abruptly scuttled, when Jimmy G reminds Kyle Shanahan and the world that it was everyone else on the team that carried them to a 2019 Super Bowl appearance. Rookie Trey Lance assumes the captain’s seat after a dreadful start by the team, mainly due to Garoppolo’s historically poor play. Lance immediately sparks the team to a long winning streak and, combined with an unstoppable ground attack, San Francisco reaches the NFC Championship Game. Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle are all dominant forces in the passing game under Lance, who also shows off his own rushing ability to the tune of 500 yards in 10 games. Raheem Mostert, Trey Sermon, and Wayne Gallman are not fantasy-relevant more than on a week-to-week basis but are utterly unstoppable as a unit.
Weak Sauce: This defense, while talented, ends up missing Robert Saleh immensely in key games. The intensity is suddenly lacking and the 49ers tend to play down to their opponents. Aside from improved health, stars Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Fred Warner are not enough to propel this good team to the greatness of another Super Bowl berth. The slow start caused by Jimmy Garoppolo affects their playoff seeding, forcing the Bay Boys to travel to Lambeau Field and contribute to Aaron Rodgers’ spiteful rampage.
Los Angeles Rams
PICANTakes: Matthew Stafford is a good quarterback with the best weapons he’s had in years, which will still bear out in this team’s overall success. Stafford is consistent all season, en route to 4,500 yards and 30 touchdown passes. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp each see an uptick from their average numbers in previous years, which makes them both valuable fantasy assets. Darrell Henderson plays well, but doesn’t produce any gaudy numbers. The story of the Rams season is the greatness of their defense. This unit takes another step forward, led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, fielding the league’s top overall defense. Los Angeles gets edged out for the division title by San Francisco and falls to Green Bay in the Divisional Round.
Weak Sauce: The gravity of Cam Akers’ injury is felt immediately in the form of an offensive imbalance. The McVay offense thrives on effective play-action, which will simply not be as effective as was hoped before Akers went down. The offensive line begins the season as thin as any squad in the league and battles injury-forced shuffling all season. Tyler Higbee is predictably touchdown-dependent and relinquishes snaps down the stretch to emerging youngsters, Brycen Hopkins and Jacob Harris. The ragtag group of running backs assembled behind Darrell Henderson are a liability and McVay resorts to spelling Henderson with more empty sets. Oft-injured vet, Desean Jackson, and diminutive rookie Tutu Atwell are largely irrelevant, save for a couple of random splash plays. For the first time in his tenure, McVay’s seat warms up.
Arizona Cardinals
PICANTakes: This offense is exciting…at least the passing game is. Kyler Murray picks up the torrid pace he was on before getting dinged up in 2020, finishing as the fantasy QB3 behind Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson. The main recipient of big plays is none other than the incomparable Deandre Hopkins. Nuk very casually puts in yet another top-5 fantasy season for a wide receiver. AJ Green plays with a newfound youth and turns out to be a value from his preseason ADP. The same is said for Christian Kirk, who manages to stay healthy and relevant more consistently than ever before. The biggest sparkplug is rookie slot weapon, Rondale Moore, who dazzles in his debut season with eight touchdowns (three on the ground).
Weak Sauce: Arizona’s running game is atrocious. A weapon in the passing game, Chase Edmonds struggles to find much room to scamper and is only relevant in PPR formats. James Conner, on the other hand, turns in an abysmal first season in the desert. He appears slow, plodding, and indecisive compared to his teammates in this fast-paced Air Raid attack. The offensive line fails to get any push going all season, leaving Murray as the team’s leading rusher. Other than an above-average pass rush, this defense is among the worst in the league and ultimately costs the talented Cardinals a playoff shot from the most rugged division in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks
PICANTakes: Pete Carroll just won’t let Russ cook! This year, Russell Wilson thrives in the new system under Shane Waldron…at first. The problem? This offensive line is terrible. Like a recurring dream, the highlights every week are Wilson running for his life and playing hero ball. Against bad teams, the weaponry is overwhelming. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both have massively productive seasons, putting them both in the top-20 fantasy wide receivers. Chris Carson is a big part of this offense, but ends up as a boom-or-bust weekly option behind this line. Gerald Everett is a nice surprise, turning in a solid TE1 season as a reliable red zone target.
Weak Sauce: Wilson again wishes he had stuck to his trade demands, as he plays through a myriad of bumps and bruises to try and keep the Hawks in contention. Once again, he is sacked more than any other quarterback in the league. The Seahawks are good, but they struggle in their division, which is the best in football. The defense is old and lacking athleticism, which costs them against most of their opponents. Pete Carroll is on the hot seat and contemplates retirement after his blunders cost them another Russell Wilson season with their window slamming shut.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
PICANTakes: The Aaron Rodgers spite tour is very real. Rodgers spits passive-aggressive vitriol about the front office into every hot microphone set in front of him but sets the league ablaze on the field. If not for Dak Prescott’s inspirational and monumental comeback season, we would be handing Rodgers another MVP award. Green Bay is clearly the best team in football, running through opponents with a lethal rushing and play-action attack, combined with an aggressive, athletic defense. On their way to a 15-2 regular season, the Pack rides another impossibly efficient season from their veteran gunslinger.
The tandem of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon is the real story, splitting the pie more evenly than expected and each averaging more than five yards-per-carry. Dillon exceeds his preseason projections with ten rushing touchdowns, while Jones scores a total of 12, with six coming through the air. Davante Adams is otherworldly. He stays healthy for all 17 games and posts a ridiculous 125 receptions for 1,420 yards and 15 touchdowns. The Green Bay Packers reach the Super Bowl, only to fall to the Chargers on a last-minute touchdown from Justin Herbert to rookie Josh Palmer.
Weak Sauce: Rodgers disables the speaker in his helmet by mid-season. The coaching staff initially appears miffed, but when the team continues to win games, we see a record number of broadcast cutaways to Mark Murphy and Brian Gutekunst, who publicly take credit for compiling such a powerhouse. Robert Tonyan only scores six touchdowns, leaving many to wonder how he scored 11 in 2020. Rookie receiver Amari Rodgers appears to take favor from Rodgers immediately, revealing that Randall Cobb told him how to mix Aaron’s favorite drink. Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling fall off significantly, as they are only able to get open when the defense completely blows coverage.
Chicago Bears
PICANTakes: Justin Fields has a monster rookie season. Andy Dalton is quickly cast aside into a mentorship role, donning a baseball cap and headset to watch the rookie from Ohio State become the first 4,000-yard passer in franchise history. Add to that Fields’ 750 rushing yards and Bears fans are seen celebrating at the expense of the teams that passed on the game-breaking talent in the draft. The impact on the talented roster around Fields is immediate and powerful. David Montgomery continues bullying defenses on the ground AND through the air, showing once again that he was utterly disrespected and slept on during the offseason.
Allen Robinson puts together a performance for the ages in his contract year, turning in another ho-hum 100 catch season, but with 1,350 yards and eight touchdowns. Darnell Mooney leads the NFL in yards per reception, finally rewarded with accurately thrown downfield passes with defensive backs choking on exhaust fumes. The defense is solid yet again, leading Chicago to a Wild Card berth.
Weak Sauce: The Bears fail to advance in the playoffs, with the blame entirely on the incompetence of head coach, Matt Nagy. The depth of the team is an issue throughout the campaign, with pricey contracts on the second and third-team quarterbacks and seemingly every player who has at one time identified as a tight end. Ryan Pace and Nagy are jettisoned immediately after the season, to the delight of every football fan in existence. Fields is named Offensive Rookie of the Year and dedicates the award to Bill Lazor, whom he endorses to be the team’s next head coach.
Minnesota Vikings
PICANTakes: Justin Jefferson’s stats regress from last season, but only slightly. Adam Thielen is steady once again, but also regresses from fewer red-zone targets. Dalvin Cook plays through multiple injuries most of the season and is very productive, but feels like he has to because Alexander Mattison plays dreadfully in his absence. Irv Smith cracks the top-12 tight ends in PPR, but is capped by unexpected production from Tyler Conklin. Ihmir Smith-Marsette returns three kickoffs for touchdowns, dazzling with his explosive speed.
Weak Sauce: Kirk Cousins is forced into playing hero, due to the Minnesota defense’s inability to avoid a weekly shredding. After tossing a career-high in interceptions that take the Vikings out of contention, Cousins is benched in favor of Jake Browning, who shows a refreshing level of intellect and accuracy. Kellen Mond spends his entire rookie season in street clothes.
Detroit Lions
PICANTakes: Despite only winning three games, the Lions only get blown out by double-digits three times. Penei Sewell is a revelation at tackle, anchoring one of the league’s best young offensive lines. Deandre Swift and Jamaal Williams are a surprisingly effective one-two punch, although Swift defers too many touches to Williams, despite having exponentially better metrics in every category.
New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn isn’t half bad when not entrusted with making in-game decisions. TJ Hockenson leads the team in targets with over 100 but has a dreadful catch percentage with a deer-in-the-headlights season from Jared Goff. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Quintez Cephus show promise, appearing to break open down the field often, but Goff’s outright phobia of throwing deep renders them irrelevant.
Weak Sauce: Goff starts every game, but is symbolically benched by Dan Campbell at the end of three separate games for lacking “that alpha mentality.” David Blough looks markedly better than Goff in each of these games. Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman are both on the field a lot but see very little action. The defense is below-average, but hold their own and force a good deal of turnovers.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
This is one of the best-coached teams in the NFL. Josh Allen regresses slightly from his epic 2020 performance, but is still among the best signal callers in the game for fantasy. Many who worried about the pass-heavy nature of the Buffalo offense are relieved to see a healthy Zack Moss not only beat out Devin Singletary for the majority of touches, but also provide physicality to balance their attack, en route to a 1,000 yard rushing season.
Stefon Diggs exerts himself again as an elite alpha receiver, posting numbers eerily similar to last season. Gabriel Davis takes another step forward, flirting with 1,000 receiving yards himself and lighting up the highlight reel with his weekly #ToeDragSwag. The Bills once again reach the AFC Championship game, only to succumb to the red-hot Los Angeles Chargers in a wild shootout.
Weak Sauce: Despite having a defense that was in the middle of the pack last season, very little was done in the offseason to address a porous run defense. This comes back to bite Buffalo toward the end of the season, when they fall victim to the ball control type offenses that appear toward the end of the regular season, forcing them to play the Wildcard weekend against New England, then Baltimore in the Divisional round. They pull out the narrow victories, but the defense is battered and gassed, leading to their loss to the Chargers.
New England Patriots
PICANTakes: The vaunted 2019 Pats defense returns in a big way, after a great deal of depth opted out of 2020. They are immediately propelled into the very best units in the league, forcing 11 turnovers in the first four games of the season. Cam Newton, fresh off a full offseason to learn the offense and regain arm strength, is closer to his MVP form than at any point in years. Damien Harris is the most effective of the New England running backs, but somehow still takes a back seat to different backs for weeks at a time for game plan reasons. Jonnu Smith is the recipient of the most big passing plays, turning in a solid season in the top-eight tight ends in PPR.
Weak Sauce: None of the running backs can get in a rhythm from the constant shuffling and Harris is a RB3, despite having very good per-touch numbers. Hunter Henry is lost in the shuffle and barely produces any fantasy-worthy stats. The wide receivers, with such prominent names as Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, and Nelson Agholor, all fall victim to the run-heavy attack that Bill Belichick employs most of the season and have very few productive performances. What dooms New England is their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone, which combined with their brutal schedule, leaves them 8-7 and just squeaking into playoffs in the uber-competitive AFC.
New York Jets
PICANTakes: A lovely surprise! The impressive work of general manager, Joe Douglas starts to bear fruit for the oft-lowly Jets. The eastward emigration of head coach, Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator, Mike LaFleur pays immediate dividends with this young team. The zone running attack with rookie Michael Carter and company is one of the best in the league, behind a much-improved offensive line. Zach Wilson shows extreme highs and lows, with LaFleur simplifying his reads and using a ton of play action. Rookie receiver, Elijah Moore is the team’s leading receiver, displaying game-breaking talent and versatility.
Weak Sauce: The Jets defense, although much more physical and organized from the coaching changes, is utterly without redeeming talent. They are in the bottom five in the league once again, giving up the league’s highest QBR. Zach Wilson doesn’t get much help from his outside receivers, Corey Davis, Keelan Cole, and Denzel Mims, opting instead to pepper his running backs and inside receivers, Moore and Jamison Crowder on quick hitters. Wilson also is among the league leaders in turnovers, taking half the season to adjust to the massive difference in speed and ability from Mountain West to NFL defensive players. Jets exceed expectations, but still only finish 7-10.
Miami Dolphins
PICANTakes: Although Miami is quite possibly the least interesting team in the league, they have some bright spots. Tua Tagovailoa has a very respectable QB2 season, with a top-10 QBR. Will Fuller comes off his Week 1 suspension to put together a solid season with more consistency than we’re using to seeing from him, combined with two massive games in the fantasy playoffs. The defense is solid, but the schedule pits them against some high-powered offenses that light up the scoreboard. Rookie wide receiver, Jalen Waddle is not a consistent weapon, but is the darling of best ball leagues when he has four big games in the second half of the season.
Weak Sauce: The Dolphins, similar to their AFC East opponents, face a tough schedule upcoming. Their team is a better product on the field than last season, but it doesn’t translate to a better record. Tua is a bright spot on the team, but doesn’t step up in crunch time nor put up gaudy fantasy numbers. The running game is surprisingly anemic, resulting in Miami falling out of contention by midseason.
AFC South
Tennessee Titans
PICANTakes: What an offense! The AFC’s most balanced attack is nearly unstoppable all season. Ryan Tannehill takes another leap forward, topping last year’s career high with 35 touchdown passes. Derrick Henry becomes an even more deadly offensive weapon under new offensive coordinator, Todd Downing, as his rushing workload decreases to make way for a two-fold increase in his utilization in the passing game. Henry sees 60 targets, for a career-high 48 receptions, making him a more formidable force in PPR formats.
AJ Brown and Julio Jones are a headache for every team attempting to load the box to slow down King Henry. Brown sets a career-high in receptions and yards, but it’s Jones who goes ballistic and bucks the “can’t score” narrative in a big way, en route to 13 receiving touchdowns. Anthony Firkser is a valuable security blanket for Tannehill and tosses in another six touchdowns. The Titans win the AFC South rather easily, but get stomped in the Wild Card round by Cleveland.
Weak Sauce: This defense…woof! It was a glaring weakness in 2020, only to deteriorate into a liability in 2021. Tennessee goes 5-0 in their cupcake division by simply outscoring their opponents, but they lose a great deal of winnable games, averaging 33 points allowed in their losses. After Brown and Jones, there is a massively disappointing drop off in production at the wide receiver position, which hampers their ability to come back against better teams.
Indianapolis Colts
PICANTakes: After missing the first couple of weeks of the season, Carson Wentz returns from his broken foot and plays like he did in 2017…half of the time. The other half looks like 2020 Wentz, and predicting which Wentz is playing week-to-week is impossible. His return does, however, free up Jonathan Taylor in the running game. JT puts together a gigantic final 12 weeks of the season, victimizing opponents to the tune of 1,700 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns. Nyheim Hines is weaponized once again, turning in another RB2 season. Michael Pittman has his “breakout” season, but his 1,000 receiving yards aren’t matched with very many touchdowns. The defense is exemplary, in the top ten versus the run and pass, respectively, but Wentz’s untimely turnover sprees put them in many unfavorable field position scenarios.
Weak Sauce: Indy narrowly misses the playoffs with a Week 18 defeat at the hands of the lowly Jaguars. Wentz throws three picks and fumbles twice, ruining a 165 yard rushing day by Taylor. The defense neutralizes the power spread offense of Urban Meyer, but with the many short fields gifted to Trevor Lawrence, a Josh Lambo field goal lays the Colts to rest. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are absent at various times throughout the season, which is disappointing to a fanbase eager to see them play.
Jacksonville Jaguars
PICANTakes: Trevor Lawrence is REALLY good…like, immediately. If not for Justin Fields bringing the Bears out of a historic rut at the game’s most important position, Lawrence would be a clear choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He does break the record for single-season passing touchdowns by a rookie, set by Justin Herbert last season, with an even 30 (in 17 games). Urban Meyer’s passing attack is efficient and the play action is the reason for its effectiveness.
James Robinson lines up at tailback on early downs, gobbling up most of the rushing volume and is wonderful yet again, punching in eight rushing touchdowns to go with his second-consecutive 1,000 yard season. The “slasher” H-back position is shared by Travis Etienne and Laviska Shenault, with Shenault commanding most of the work when Etienne’s footwork, route-running, and hands prove to be a liability on passing plays. Shenault uses his career high in targets and rushing attempts to parlay into a Pro Bowl season with 12 touchdowns (four rushing, eight receiving).
Weak Sauce: Etienne is very effective out of the backfield when subbing in for Robinson, but is very raw as a receiver and falls out of favor with Meyer mid-season. DJ Chark makes a few highlight reel grabs, but his overall performance pales in comparison to the first four weeks of 2019. Marvin Jones is more consistent than Chark, but lacks upside because Lawrence is biased toward throwing guys open on timing routes, rather than going deep. Tim Tebow makes the team as a tight end, but is minimally effective as a red-zone-only option. This defense remains atrocious and hemorrhages points at a record pace, dragging the Jags to a 5-12 record.
Houston Texans
PICANTakes: We have another winless team on our hands. The most dysfunctional franchise in professional sports isn’t so much coveted as it is earned. Deshaun Watson isn’t walking through that tunnel for this team, regardless of the status of his ongoing legal woes. They are left with journeyman lung health awareness spokesman, Tyrod Taylor and a Stanford kid who looked decent against Pac-12 defenses, Davis Mills. Aside from the rock solid Brandin Cooks, there lies a dearth of talent in the pass catching department.
Nico Collins is a hyped rookie sleeper because he’s big and fast, but fans quickly realize he’s not actually a good player yet. David Johnson was a steady productive presence last season, but now he finds himself flanked with a dozen former backup running backs to compete for whatever volume a terrible team will have.
Weak Sauce: The entire franchise, period. Bill O’Brien pre-f***ed this roster on his way out of town and the lovable duo of Cal McNair and Jack Easterby have somehow made it even worse. I feel somewhat bad for incoming GM, Nick Caserio and head coach, David Culley. They are quite literally in a no-win situation with hardly a fantasy-relevant player to be found. The defense will also occupy the darkest depths of the basement versus the run and pass, making five divisional opponents and seven other teams very happy to see Houston on their schedule.
AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers
PICANTakes: Justin Herbert is a star. Any talk of a sophomore slump is quickly scuttled when they start the season 4-0, including wins in Washington and at Arrowhead against the rival Chiefs. Herbert is surgical and more mobile than given credit for, peppering Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler to the tune of 100-plus receptions each. The offense is balanced and intelligent, using short passes as an extension of the running game to get gifted players in space.
Mike Williams puts together a healthy season and is a reliable field stretcher, despite struggling to gain separation. Rookie Josh Palmer makes his share of big plays as well, getting run at multiple receiver positions. The defense is among the best in the league again, putting a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and locking down opposing receivers. The Los Angeles Chargers catch fire to end the regular season and roll right through the daunting AFC playoffs to defeat the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl.
Weak Sauce: Not much to speak of here, but the running back position behind Ekeler is horrendous. Joshua Kelley is better than last season, but not by much. Rookie Larry Rountree shows glimpses of his potential, but neither he nor Kelley provides much in the way of fantasy scoring. Jared Cook scores seven touchdowns, but lacks the big play ability he had in earlier years and disappoints in receptions and yards. Jalen Guyton’s existence in the offense fades away with each Josh Palmer stride.
Kansas City Chiefs
PICANTakes: This is a regression year for the two-time defending AFC champs. The swoon of losing the Super Bowl is as real as Kansas City barbecue, and there is plenty of cause for concern for Andy Reid’s supposed juggernaut. Patrick Mahomes is just as explosive as ever, but he is not as lucky as he was in 2020 when he led the league in dropped interceptions. The new offensive line is younger and more skilled than the one that withered under the bright lights last winter, but their continuity and cohesion with Mahomes takes a long time to develop.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has a breakout season, putting up 1,700 scrimmage yards, but he is every bit the liability as a pass protector, lacks a nose for the end zone, and still not trusted to carry a big workload. Tyreek Hill is amazing, but misses spots of time when his hamstrings tighten up yet again. Travis Kelce continues on his torrid pace of receptions and yards, but regresses back to his mean touchdown production after his 11 last season.
Weak Sauce: There are plenty of dents in the armor of this supposed dynasty. The offense holds serve as a top-10 unit, but the main detractor from this team making the playoffs is turnover margin. Last season, the Chiefs were tied for fifth in the NFL with 16 forced interceptions and only threw seven (tied for second-fewest). Mahomes’ interception total jumps to 18 this season, while the defense is also less fortunate and only intercepts 11 passes. With a negative turnover differential on the season, the Chiefs are must-watch television, but lose out on the last Wild Card spot on a tie breaker.
Denver Broncos
PICANTakes: This is a solid team that is terrible at winning games. Rookie running back, Javonte Williams quickly ushers vastly inferior runner, Melvin Gordon from his starting job and most of the insanely low-efficiency volume that made him an RB1 last season. Williams averages a full yard per carry more than Gordon and puts the league on notice that he’s a force at the goal line, scoring 10 touchdowns from inside the five yard line.
Jerry Jeudy puts on a show in his sophomore season, hauling in 75 catches for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. He only drops two passes the entire season. Tight end, Noah Fant also has a big season, ending as TE6 in PPR. The defense is above average and gives Denver a shot to win more games than they ultimately finish with.
Weak Sauce: Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater both get a run as starting quarterback, capitalizing on the immense talent at the skill positions with some nice games. They both, however, turn the ball over at an alarming rate. Denver leads the NFL in turnovers, in fact. Coach Vic Fangio also waffles in multiple key moments, arguably costing them two more wins. Courtland Sutton returns from his knee injury, but doesn’t look as crisp as before, yielding to Jeudy as the alpha receiver going forward. Fangio is out after the season, and the steady din of fans murmuring about John Elway stepping down rises to a roar.
Las Vegas Raiders
PICANTakes: Back to the drawing board! The Raiders season is a complete disaster, finishing with only four wins on the 2021 campaign. Derek Carr isn’t terrible, but regresses back to his previously-mediocre self. Darren Waller is still a machine and puts up numbers eerily similar to last season. Josh Jacobs looks good and has the most efficient season of his career, but Coach Gruden inexplicably locks him into a 45/45/10 timeshare with Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard. The offense shows flurries of capable play all season, helped by the development of X receiver Bryan Edwards, but is horribly predictable and hampered by Gruden’s immovable will to captain the ship his way.
Weak Sauce: What an absolutely horrendous defense. Whether versus the run or pass, the Raiders get lit up like the Vegas Strip this season. Years of extremely poor drafting by Gruden and Mayock come crashing down on the franchise, whose amazing stadium is filled to the brim with opposing fans weekly. Drake plays dreadfully behind the league’s worst offensive line. Henry Ruggs is fun to watch, but Gruden continues to use him as a decoy (even more than last season). John Brown is a great mentor and locker room presence, but he seems to be invisible to Carr, running open a lot and still only earning the fifth-most targets on the team.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
PICANTakes: Lamar Jackson returns to 2019 form. Big Truzz passes for a career high 3,700 yards to go with his third-consecutive 1,000 yard rushing season. The difference? Rashod Bateman, the stud rookie from Minnesota, goes off for over 1,000 receiving yards and leaving defenses in a spin cycle. Mark Andrews also regains some of his mojo from two years ago, putting up 800 yards and eight touchdowns as a reliable second option. JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards are a deadly 1-2 punch in the backfield, contributing over five yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns each.
Weak Sauce: Once a feared unit, the defense in the Charm City has lost its hairspray hold, its crab cake crunch, if you will. The preseason worries about developing new pass rushers is very real. The Ravens struggle all season to apply pressure and slow down the explosive offenses they face. This is still a very dangerous team that reaches the playoffs, but gets beaten handily by the Buffalo Bills.
Cleveland Browns
PICANTakes: The AFC North is on notice that the Browns don’t be the Browns anymore. For the first time in decades, a talented roster is complimented with an exemplary coaching staff. Baker Mayfield finishes in the top-5 in QBR, tossing 30 touchdowns to only nine interceptions. The two-headed monster in the backfield got paid and paid off immediately. Nick Chubb is the NFL’s second leading rusher behind Derrick Henry, adding in 13 touchdowns. Kareem Hunt scampers for another 1,300 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. Odell Beckham returns to health and leads the team in receiving, cracking the WR2 tier in PPR. The defense is downright scary, much improved against the run and leading the NFL in sacks and tackles for loss.
Weak Sauce: The passing game is efficient, but Beckham is the only reliable deep threat, with inconsistent play from Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, and rookie Anthony Schwartz. The tight end position is deep, but none of them produce fantasy-relevant stats. The secondary gets burned down the field on occasion, which dooms them in the playoffs against the eventual champion Chargers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
PICANTakes: Najee Harris is a tank. In fact, he’s that fancy tank that costs the military 8.5 million dollars to make. He does everything a running back is expected to do and he does it very well. Without any professional-level competition at the position, with vision and anticipation lightyears better than James Conner, it won’t matter that the offensive line will likely field a subpar group.
Matt Canada brings back two things this offense was lacking last season: physicality and verticality. Harris turns his 350 touches into 1600 scrimmage yards and 10 combined touchdowns. This untaps the play-action that was a chore last season, giving higher quality targets to Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson, who each surpass 1,000 receiving yards with ease. The defense is back after the quarterback and finish in the top-10 overall again. Pittsburgh returns to the playoffs on a better trajectory than last season.
Weak Sauce: Ben Roethlisberger fades down the stretch…again. Our selective amnesia always misplaces the memories of the last four seasons, where Big Ben comes into camp in the best shape of his life, only to return to a worn-out and battered version by midseason. His arm feels better than ever this season, but the confidence still doesn’t match up to his ability. JuJu Smith-Schuster regresses even further, losing out on a good portion of his targets to Johnson, Claypool, and Harris, all of whom can actually get open.
Cincinnati Bengals
PICANTakes: It’s a passing league these days. The Bengals got half the equation right. Joe Burrow comes back from his devastating knee injury to lead the league in passing attempts. Joe Mixon is another redemption story, returning from his foot debacle to rush for 1,100 yards and six touchdowns, adding 60 receptions for 550 yards and three more scores through the air. The trio of receivers: Tee Higgins, rookie phenom Jamarr Chase, and slot ace Tyler Boyd are almost disappointingly balanced, with only 15 catches and 300 yards separating all three of them.
Weak Sauce: This defense is atrocious. We are a long ways from seeing the Bengals back in the playoffs with such a terrible unit on the field getting lit up on a weekly basis. This is the main reason Burrow attempts 650 passes this season, which also doesn’t even equate to a 5,000 yard season because Burrow is under a lot of duress and is also reluctant to step up in the pocket and take shots downfield. The offensive line isn’t as bad as last season, with the addition of Riley Reiff and the return of Jonah Williams, but it’s still not good.
PICANTakes Playoff Bracket
NFC Wild Card
(2) San Francisco 27 – (7) Chicago 24
(3) Dallas 31 – (6) Carolina 28
(4) Tampa Bay 24 – (5) LA Rams 21
AFC Wild Card
(2) Buffalo 34 – (7) New England 24
(3) Baltimore 24- (6) Pittsburgh 23
(4) Tennessee 21 – (5) Cleveland 35
NFC Divisional Round
(1) Green Bay 37 – (4) Tampa Bay 31
(2) San Francisco 45 – (3) Dallas 42
AFC Divisional Round
(1) LA Chargers 28 – (5) Cleveland 24
(2) Buffalo 26 – (3) Baltimore 23
NFC Championship
(1) Green Bay 27 – (2) San Francisco 21
AFC Championship
(1) LA Chargers 49 – (2) Buffalo 45
Super Bowl LVI- Los Angeles, CA
LA Chargers 33 – Green Bay 27
2021 NFL Awards
NFL MVP: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts
Comeback Player of the Year: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Coach of the Year: Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
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