Alright, DFS fans, it’s time once again for my free weekly NFL DFS FanPicks advice! Week 10 was once again a successful one for me as I was able to bring home some more cash. Guys such as Kirk Cousins and LeGarrette Blount were instrumental in my success. With my advice, you too can win some cold hard cash as long as you play the matchups correctly. That’s what I’m here for, though, so take some notes and good luck this week!
Here’s my Week 11 free NFL DFS FanPicks advice:
MVP: In reality the MVP is the best player at their given sport. This will be my overall favorite player at each position. I’ll look at his season stats, defensive matchup, recent performances and his career history versus this week’s opponent.
Value Pick: A value pick will be a player who has the potential to be a middle priced guy who could outperform the MVP style players.
Punt Play: This is a widely used term in the DFS world. This will be a player who will be low-owned in the larger tournaments, but will be a high-risk play.
Bust Candidate: This will be a potential top-rated player who I believe will have a down week. I’ll take a look at their recent performances and defensive matchup.
Quarterbacks
MVP: Derek Carr, Raiders ($7,000)
Carr has been stellar during his Sophomore NFL season thus far! In Week 10, he was able to pass for over 300 yards and two touchdowns against a solid Vikings defense. This week, he’ll face off against a Lions team who is much more giving on the defensive side of the ball. In 2015, Detroit ranks 29th overall versus opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 24.0 fantasy points per game. Carr will be a very solid pick in Week 11!
Value Pick: Matt Ryan, Falcons ($6,500)
I know that Ryan hasn’t quite lived up to our expectations for this season, but this week will be one of those that you want him in your DFS lineups. He’ll be taking on a vulnerable Colts squad who isn’t great overall against quarterbacks. This year, Indianapolis has allowed 22.9 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per contest. Also, Ryan has Julio Jones to throw the ball to, so that’s always a plus!
Punt Play: Case Keenum, Rams ($4,300)
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Keenum was named starting quarterback for the Rams for Week 11. He’s obviously not the most talented guy to put into your lineups, but his cheap price tag paired with the weapons around him could lead to a surprising week for him. He’ll get to face off against a porous Ravens secondary who ranks 31st versus opposing quarterbacks this season for fantasy. Keenum is the true definition of a punt play, so start him with caution!
Bust Candidate: Andy Dalton, Bengals ($6,800)
Dalton has been one of the most pleasant surprises of this 2015 season. He is on an MVP pace that I keep waiting to derail any week now. It’s possible that Dalton has finally found his groove in the league, but this week he has a tough matchup. The Cardinals are an ultra-tough defense who rank 11th overall versus opposing quarterbacks. I’m not saying Dalton is going to have a terrible week, but there are better options out there for his higher price tag.
Running Backs
MVP: Lamar Miller, Dolphins ($6,500)
In the past few weeks, Miller is finally playing on the level that we all expected him to this season. He’s been not only solid with his ground game but has also been highly involved in Miami’s passing game. Miller gets a very good matchup against my Cowboys squad who allow an average of 22.9 fantasy points per contest to running backs. I think that this Miami versus Dallas matchup could end up being a shootout, so I love Miller this week.
Value Pick: Darren McFadden, Cowboys ($5,000)
Like I said above, I think this game is going to be a shootout and both running backs are going to be huge this week! McFadden has been the savior of this dreadful Cowboys offense over the past month and I expect that to carry over this week, especially in the passing game. Starting quarterback, Tony Romo will most likely be back and will be looking to distribute the ball to guys like McFadden. Miami gives up an average of 24.0 fantasy points per game to running backs, so play him this week.
Punt Play: Charcandrick West, Chiefs ($4,900)
The loss of Jamaal Charles is a little more bearable in Kansas City with a backup running back like West. He’s been killer in his starting role and will have a nice outing on Sunday against the Chargers. This season, San Diego ranks a league worst 32nd versus opposing running backs, allowing an average of 24.7 fantasy points per contest. Since FanPicks has a PPR scoring format, West will be a valuable asset to you all in Week 11.
Bust Candidate: Doug Martin, Buccaneers ($5,800)
Martin has revitalized his career this season, looking better than ever! He has a tough matchup for Week 11, though, against a stingy Eagles defense against the run. In 2015, Philly ranks 5th versus opposing running backs, allowing just an average of 14.6 fantasy points per game. I like Martin going forward this season, but I’m staying away from him for this week.
Wide Receivers
MVP: Mike Evans, Buccaneers ($7,200)
Evans had a great Week 10, catching 10 passes for 126 yards against the Cowboys. He’s not the top dog among the wide receivers today, but he has a super nice matchup for Week 11. The Eagles have been nothing short of dreadful versus opposing wideouts this year. In 2015, Philadelphia ranks 30th overall versus opposing wide receivers, allowing an average of 27.7 fantasy points per contest. Evans is the kind of guy that you can pay a mid-level price range on and spend higher at other positions.
Value Pick: Eric Decker, Jets ($6,200)
All Decker seems to do is score touchdowns for the Jets this season! He’s the kind of player who DFS players love to stream weekly against the right matchup. For Week 11, Decker will face off against a decent, but penetrable Texans secondary. Even though Houston ranks 13th overall this season versus wide receivers I still see Decker putting in another solid game.
Punt Play: Steve Johnson, Chargers ($4,000)
If you guys are looking for an amazingly cheap option at receiver look no further than Johnson. How many number one receivers are you going to find for DFS at a $4,000 price range? On top of his low price, Johnson will be facing off against the putrid Chiefs secondary. This year, Kansas City ranks 31st against opposing wideouts, allowing an average of 30.3 fantasy points per game.
Bust Candidate: Alshon Jeffery, Bears ($7,000)
Once again this week, Jeffery has made it on my DFS bust list! Last week I had him as a bust and he was just that, catching just three passes for 23 yards. His Week 10 performance was far from the output that we’re all used to. Jeffery has another tough matchup ahead him against the league’s top-ranked fantasy defense in Denver. This year, the Broncos have allowed an average of just 11.8 points to opposing fantasy receivers, so steer clear of Jeffery this week.
Tight End
MVP: Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($5,000)It’s actually an insanely tough week to pick a tight end who I think will produce optimum fantasy numbers. I’m going to go with a stud receiver who has a decent defensive matchup. Kelce will face off against his AFC West divisional foe San Diego Chargers. In 2015, the Chargers rank 24th overall at defending against opposing tight ends, making Kelce one of the best tight end plays of the week.
Value Pick: Jason Witten, Cowboys ($5,000)
So Witten hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, so why do I think things will change this week? Well, he finally gets his field general back in Tony Romo! Romo and Witten have an amazing chemistry and will take advantage of this Dolphins defense. This year, Miami ranks in the bottom half of the league defending against opposing tight ends. I see Witten finally getting over the hump and scoring his third touchdown of the year.
Punt Play: Eric Ebron, Lions ($3,500)
Ebron may very well be the guy who I stream this week at tight end. Like I said earlier, this week is going to be tough to pick a great tight end, but I believe Ebron has great touchdown potential. He’s playing against the Raiders, who I’ve been streaming tight ends against all season long, so I’m going to continue that trend for Week 11.
Bust Candidate: Antonio Gates, Chargers ($5,000)
Gates costs as much as a guy like Kelce or Witten, who have a much better matchups for Week 11. He’s facing off against the Chiefs who actually rank 1st overall this year versus opposing tight ends, allowing just 4.4 fantasy points per contest. There is a ton of better options than Gates for this week’s DFS slate.
Defenses
MVP: Seattle Seahawks ($3,800)
It’s looking like Seattle could be the best defensive option for Week 11. I haven’t been riding on the Seahawks train much at all this season, but a Week 11 game versus the 49ers could spell big things for this defensive squad.
Value Pick: Atlanta Falcons ($3,200)
The Falcons have been a solid DFS option all season long and will be same this week! They will be playing a Colts team who is missing their leader Andrew Luck at quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck is a solid backup quarterback, but he won’t put up great numbers versus this Falcons defense.
Punt Play: Dallas Cowboys ($2,200)
When choosing a DFS defense you have to put some thought into who you’re going to play. You want to play a defense who is playing against a team that likes to turn the ball over. The Dolphins have managed to give up a safety in every game over the last three weeks, which is an achievement no other team has accomplished. I’m playing Dallas and hoping for another turnover extravaganza in Miami.
Bust Candidate: Cincinnati Bengals ($3,500)
The Bengals have been a consistent defensive group this season, but I just don’t like their Week 11 matchup. The Cardinals have been a tough offensive group to stop this year and I just don’t see the Bengals achieving much fantasy glory against them.
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