First, I want to say that I believe in CeeDee Lamb, and I think he is a talented wide receiver (WR). Lamb is probably a lock to be a WR 1 but to be a high-end WR 1 (WR 1-6), you need to be a certified alpha. In consensus rankings, he is the WR 6. Let’s get into the reasons why I think he is being over-drafted or at least some reasons why we should hesitate to draft him as high as WR 6. What does it require to be a high-end WR 1? Over the last two years, this is the average for a high-end WR 1: 105 receptions, 1465 yards, 11.5 touchdowns, and a 28% target share.
If you think this is a small sample size, I want to say we just had our first 17-game season last year, and these last two years are a better example of our current talent in the NFL. I would be willing to bet the averages next year will be higher than this, barring any injuries to the elite WRs. These averages are the bare minimum CeeDee Lamb is going to need.
Some of these WRs got into the top 6 with less than 100 receptions or less than a 24% target share. When one or both of these outcomes happened, the WR had double-digit touchdowns or 15+ yards per reception (YPR). CeeDee Lamb has never accomplished either in his career, but we will get more into that later.
Embed from Getty ImagesNow I want to talk about Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore. In the five full seasons Dak Prescott has played, the highest a WR of his has finished is Amari Cooper as the PPR WR 10. That would have been the WR 14 from a PPG standpoint and also the highest in those regards. Over the last three seasons under Kellen Moore, Dak Prescott hasn’t had a WR get over a 22% target share. As I mentioned above, Lamb will need more than that. The lower the target share, the more touchdowns he will need and the higher his YPR will need to be.
It’s very easy to say that most of these vacated targets in Dallas are going to Lamb, but we know that’s not always the case. I think Lamb’s 20.4% target share from last year will improve but how much? I am not nervous about the talent of CeeDee Lamb but the fact that this is how the offense is. The ball is spread around, and that is why the 3rd WR on the team has been very productive. Whether that was Randall Cobb in 2019, Gallup in 2020, or a mixture of a few guys in 2021. Even Cedrick Wilson had good games when he filled in for injuries last year.
The best way to score points in fantasy is touchdowns; we all know this. I know touchdowns aren’t sticky, but I see a big issue with CeeDee Lamb. He was 5th on his team in targets per game inside the red zone. He was tied for 5th in targets per game inside the ten. The player he was tied with inside the ten was Malik Turner.
I’ll be completely honest; I’ve never even heard of this guy and had no idea he was on the team. This tells me Lamb is not the priority when they get into the red zone, and they have many ways to score the ball. Alphas get targets in the red zone whether touchdowns are sticky or not. The six touchdowns Lamb got each of the last two seasons is not going to cut it.
Listen, I get the hype Michael Gallup will miss some time. Amari Cooper is gone in Cleveland, so he’s the guy now, right? Well, in my opinion, if it takes two guys to be gone in some fashion for Lamb to move up this high in ADP, is he really an alpha? To me, an alpha is someone who gives you a reason regardless of who the other pass catchers are. Justin Jefferson did it with Adam Thielen next to him. Ja’Marr Chase did it with Tee Higgins next to him.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying fade Lamb, or he will have a bad year. I’m saying his price is too high at WR 6, and he has not shown the complete skill set needed to be a high-end WR 1/alpha. At the end of the day, the five WRs ahead of CeeDee Lamb in consensus rankings are already proven.
It would be a tall task and a massive leap if he were to beat any of the elite WRs next season. The WR 6 price is too high, and there isn’t any room for error in order to return value. Unless CeeDee Lamb falls to at least the WR 9, I will not be drafting him in 2022.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
