It was a wild and crazy third week in fantasy football, with seemingly anyone with a pulse putting up huge numbers.  How about a running back who had been averaging les than two yards a carry putting up more than 40 points in certain formats (Devonta Freeman)?

If that’s not your thing, maybe you’re into a receiver with more than 140 yards through the air and catching his team’s first touchdown to pass to a wide receiver since 2013 (Jeremy Maclin)?  Or maybe you like former all-world running backs who were shot (with a gun) in the offseason and seemingly done with the NFL exploding for 120+ yards and two touchdowns (Chris Johnson)?

Whatever your fantasy football fetish, last week had something for everyone.  But there’s been one thing missing from basically every game played so far this season, something that can often go overlooked even by the most hardened fantasy players yet potentially neuter even the surest of bets in fantasy… the weather.  This weekend the Lazy’s Man’s roster advice is to check the weather!

Yes, the latest forecasts for Hurricane Joaquin Phoenix seem to have it skirting just offshore and thus avoiding a major mid-atlantic landfall and football fallout, but be sure to check again this weekend because, you know, weatherman are often quite wrong.  And, while a few rain showers are no reason to overhaul your fantasy line up, a game in heavy rain and wind can change everything, so be sure to track this storm and its potential impacts [Note:  It’s probably a good idea to track hurricanes regardless of fantasy football impacts, just in case you were wondering.  Hurricanes are generally bad].

Also, one more important programming note… football starts REALLY early on Sunday!  The Dolphins and Jets will kick things off at 9:30 am EST, so set your line ups early and be sure to acquire socially acceptable adult beverages to begin drinking at breakfast.

The Lazy Man’s week one roster advice: 

Weather and other non-football notes:  Right now, the weather looks ok for this NFL weekend across the board, but just a day ago it looked like the Redskins – Eagles game might be postponed due to the aforementioned hurricane.  Check the weather report for this game over the weekend.

Games and player ratings:

Ballers Players expected to meet or exceed high fantasy point projections.

Bubble Players expected to squeak by with marginal production but not be total duds.

Bad Players you should avoid.  Please note, just because a guy is in the “Bad” category this week does NOT mean you should cut him, and in some cases you’ll have to start him, but temper your expectations.

If a player is not listed I found them to be boring or obvious, so toss them in the bubble category.

I’m not including kickers because that would be dumb.

*indicates player has an injury and availability should be confirmed before game time.

Early games

New York Jets  @ Miami (really @ London)

These AFC East rivals will square off in London in an early morning match up (USA time, America!) that will certainly have a negative impact on the productivity of the American workforce come Monday.  It’s hard to have any confidence in the Dolphins at this point, coming off back to back losses to the lowly Jaguars and the Bills in a blowout, respectively.  They’re not scoring points,a nd surprisingly having a hard time stopping folks too.  These London games have a habit of being sloppy and this one should be no different, with two less than stellar offenses going at it.  Best bets for big games might be a Jets WR or Miami TE, and Jets DST.

Ballers:  Brandon Marshall, Jordan Cameron, Jets DST

Bubble:  Jarvis Landry, Dolphins DST, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, *Eric Decker (knee), Rishard Matthews, DeVante Parker

Bad:  *Chris Ivory, *Lamar Miller

Oakland @ Chicago

Ok, I’m starting to think the Raiders aren’t one of the worst teams in the league.  While the team may succumb to still being, well, the Raiders, that offense features some budding fantasy studs, who should be licking their chops with a match up against the Bears DST this Sunday.  The Bears are not horrible in NFL rankings for yards given up, but they have surrendered by far the most points (105)  of any defense in the league, and I’m pretty sure Jimmy Clausen playing QB for the Bears will somehow make their DST even worse.  Start the Raider studs, and hope Matt Forte can put up some numbers for the Bears.

Ballers:  Derek Carr, Latavius Murray, Matt Forte, Amari Cooper

Bubble:  Martellus Bennett, Michael Crabtree, *Alshon Jeffery, Raiders DST

Bad:  Bears DST, Jimmy Clausen, Eddie Royal

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

In what should have been a great chance for Andrew Luck to get back on track looks like it might be chance for… Matt Hasselbeck to get back on track?  Yikes, with Luck nursing a bum shoulder that has limited him all week in practice, could this be the chance for Hasselbeck, by far the league’s oldest player at 67 years old  (I think, trying to confirm age) to start his first game since 202?  The Colts seem confident that Luck will play, but keep an eye on this situation as a Hasselbeck start would significantly lessen the value of Colts deep receiving threats such as Hilton and Moncrief.

Ballers:  *Andrew Luck, Frank Gore, Allen Robinson, T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief

Bubble:  T.J. Yeldon, Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns, Coby Fleener, Colts DST

Bad:  Dwayne Allen, Marqise Lee, Andre Johnson, Phillip Dorsett, Jaguars DST

New York Giants @ Buffalo

This NY state brawl for bragging rights is an intriguing match up between an upstart Bills team and a Giants team mired in one of their patented slow starts. Eli Manning and troops were able to get on track a bit last week, but it was against Washington in prime time, a time slot and match up where even Archie Manning could throw for 300 yards and three scores. Except for being dissected by Tom Brady (no shame in that) the Bills have looked formidable at times this season, and could cement their solid start with a big home win.  Injuries are a big story in this game, with usual starters such as LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, and Victor Cruz likely to sit out.  Karlos Williams, averaging an absurd 7.8 YPC, could be a big time spot starter if McCoy is out.

Ballers:  Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams

Bubble:  Bills DST, Rueben Randle, Percy Harvin, Charles Clay

Bad:  Giants RBs, *LeSean McCoy, *Victor Cruz, *Sammy Watkins, Larry Donnell, Giants DST

Carolina @ Tampa

Damn you Muscle Hamster!  Once again the preseason has proven to NOT be a strong indicator of things to come in fantasy football, as Doug Martin was basically awarded the Comeback Player of the Year award before playing a regular season snap, and that award has now been revoked.  Speaking of perennially disappointing fantasy RBs, how about you Jonathan Stewart?  He should be a strong play this week, but that has been said about him since fantasy football was invented, and he’s dinged up and hasn’t practiced.  Cam Newton and Greg Olsen are clearly the studs of the Panther offense, and their DST should have big day.

Ballers:  Cam Newton, Mike Evans, Greg Olsen, Panthers DST

Bubble:  Jameis Winston, Vincent Jackson

Bad:  Carolina WRs, Buccaneers DST, Doug Martin, *Jonathan Stewart

Philadelphia  @ Washington

Teams seem to make a habit of getting well against the Redskins.  This is something I have witnessed all too many times over the last few years as my hometown team has never ceased to amaze in its innovative ways to look bad and dumb.  They pulled off such a feat just last week when the Giants sprung to life after an ugly 0-2 start to thump the Skins on primetime TV (of course).  But, unlike in years past where such screw ups were the result of total team failures, last week was more a result of turnovers and some unfortunate bounces.  I think the Skins are the team that gets back on track this week by pounding the Eagles with Alfred Morris and Matt Jones, and the Eagles offense will pop a couple big plays but continue their overall struggles.  DeMarco Murray looks like he may be a no go again for the Eagles, and DeSean Jackson is likely out again for Washington.  Weather alert:  Keep an eye on Hurricane Joaquin!  If forecast, game could be rescheduled and fantasy forecast dampened.

Ballers:  Matt Jones, Alfred Morris, Jordan Matthews, Jordan Reed

Bubble:  Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford, Ryan Mathews, Nelson Agholor, Pierre Garcon, Eagles DST, Redskins DST, Darren Sproles

Bad:  *DeMarco Murray, Chris Thompson, DeSean Jackson (hamstring), Zach Ertz

Houston @ Atlanta

This game feels like it could be a shoot out, through the air.  I know, both DeVonta Freeman and Alfred Blue were monsters last week, but there’s a reason why that phrase has never been uttered before.  They return to earth this week but both teams air it out (Houston paying catch up) against vulnerable defenses (no offense JJ Watt).

Ballers:  Matt Ryan, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones

Bubble:  Alfred Blue, Devonta Freeman, Ryan Mallett, Leonard Hankerson

Bad:  *Arian Foster, Chris Polk, *Tevin Coleman, Cecil Shorts, Nate Washington, Roddy White,  Garrett Graham, *Jacob Tamme, Falcons DST

Kansas City @ Cincinatti

Fun match up with lots of fantasy potential.  Andy Dalton ain’t Aaron Rodgers but he also ain’t Andy Dalton, apparently.  Dalton is the third highest scoring QB in fantasy this season, behind just the aforementioned Rodgers and one Thomas Brady.  A.J. Green reminded everyone last week just how freakishly good he is, and Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce are the two best TEs in the league not named Gronk.  This should be a high-scoring affair with plenty of sweet stat lines, especially for the Bengals passing attack.

Ballers:  Andy Dalton, Jamaal Charles, A.J. Green, Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones

Bubble:  Jeremy Maclin, Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard

Bad:  Chiefs DST, Bengals DST

St. Louis @ Arizona

Arizona might be the best team in the league.  St. Louis is not.  Carson Palmer is playing like an MVP.  Nick Foles is not.   Arizona has scored more than 45 points in each of its last two games.  The Rams scored six points last week against the Steelers.  The best bet for any fantasy production from the Rams will be garbage time points if the Cardinals take a big lead, but even then expectations should be limited by their lack of offensive firepower.  Andre Ellington likely out again for Arizona, giving Chris Johnson another starter worthy opportunity.

Ballers:  Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals DST

Bubble:  Chris Johnson, John Brown, Nick Foles, Jared Cook

Bad:  St. Louis RBs, *Andre Ellington, David Johnson, Michael Floyd, Rams DST, Tavon Austin

Late games

Cleveland @ San Diego

San Diego isn’t great but they bounce back in a big way after a sloppy loss to the Vikings.  The Vikings have Adrian Peterson.  The Browns do not have Adrian Peterson.

Ballers:  Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Steve Johnson

Bubble:  Danny Woodhead, Chargers DST

Bad:  The Browns

Minnesota @ Denver

It may not matter that Peyton Manning isn’t the same Peyton Manning from years past.  The Denver DST is playing at another level right now, leading the league in passing defense and total defense.  Their pass rush has been ferocious.  They aren’t as stout against the run but it’s unlikely that Adrian Peterson will be able to run wild like he did last week against San Diego.  Will be interesting to see if Denver can get anything going on the ground, possibly with a burst from Ronnie Hillman.

Ballers:  Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos DST

Bubble: Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Ronnie Hillman,  Kyle Rudolph, Owen Daniels, Vikings DST

Bad:  C.J. Anderson, Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson

Green Bay @ San Francisco

I noticed something while watching Aaron Rodgers pick apart the Chiefs on MNF.  Not only does he make the game look effortless, moving smoothly and easily as others fumble about in chaos, he also doesn’t sweat.  Watch him during this game, nary a drop of perspiration will appear on his brow.  How can you stop that?  The 49ers are about to replace their cross-bay neighbors the Raiders on my really bad team list, after what will undoubtedly be a big loss to the Packers.  Eddie Lacy and Davante Adams are banged up, Adams unlikely to play.

Ballers:  Aaron Rodgers, *Eddie Lacy, Carlos Hyde, Randall Cobb, James Jones, Packers DST

Bubble:  James Starks

Bad:  Colin Kaepernick, Anquan Boldin, *Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Torrey Smith, Richard Rodgers, Vernon Davis, 49ers DST

Sunday Night game

Dallas @ New Orleans

The possibility of a return by Drew Brees may help salvage what otherwise was looking like a battle of the back ups between Brandon Weeden and Luke McCown on SNF.  Check on his availability before game time, but even if Brees plays, expect both teams to rely on a heavy dose of running.  The Cowboys were torched by DeVonta Freeman last week, but the Cowboys will undoubtedly be looking for a repeat of Joseph Randle‘s three touchdown performance in the same game.  If Brees plays, the Saint’s pass catchers get a bump up, and the Cowboys DST gets bumped down.

Ballers:  Joseph Randle, Mark Ingram, Jason Witten, *Drew Brees

Bubble:  Lance Dunbar, C.J. Spiller, Brandin Cooks, Cowboys DST

Bad:  Brandon Weeden, Luke McCown, Darren McFadden, Khiry Robinson, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Brandon Coleman, Marques Colston, Ben Watson, Saints DST

 Monday Night game

Detroit @ Seattle

The Seahawks, at home, against a banged up Matt Stafford and Lion’s offense that has yet to solidify any sort of identity or consistency.  Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick have some value in PPR leagues, but hard to pick either of the two especially against the Seahawks DST with Kam Chancellor back in action.  It’s hard to bench Calvin Johnson in any match up but it’s also hard to get excited about him in this one.  Marshawn Lynch is banged up and Thomas Rawls would get the start if he can’t go, and wouldn’t be a terrible play but you’d have to wait until Monday night to know for sure.

Ballers:  Russell Wilson, *Marshawn Lynch, Jimmy Graham, Seahawks DST

Bubble:  Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick, Thomas Rawls, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Eric Ebron, Calvin Johnson

Bad: *Matthew Stafford, Joique Bell, other Lions WRs, Lions DST

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