League of Legends Worlds Semifinals – AlphaDraft

League of Legends Worlds Semifinals 

Alphadraft’s Best Picks Breakdown

-This week, we move into the semi-finals of the 2015 Worlds competition.  With some intense matches coming up, I’m here to bring you a breakdown of the smartest, most economic picks for each position. This week, and in the coming weeks and upcoming tournaments, I’m going to focus on the top Alphadraft picks.  If you are just looking for some example recommended line-ups, jump to the bottom of the page.  So, let’s get right into it:

Team

For the team slot, our options are of course the following:

SK Telecom T1 ($3,800): Best Pick*

Unfortunately for the western world, SKT has once again shown a near-perfect performance with an undefeated record so far at worlds. They are playing against Origen this week, and although Origen has shown us an amazing performance, it’s very unlikely they’ll beat SKT in a bo5. It’s also statistically unlikely that they’ll even take a single game off of them. If they did, it would be the first time anyone has thus far at Worlds.  This is the safest pick by far.

* Don’t Forget that a team that wins 3-0 in a best of 5 will almost always receive fewer points than a team that wins 3-2. 

Fnatic ($3,700): 2nd Best Pick* (*See above)

The game to watch this Sunday. This will be a close one, and the team prices show it.  Here’s a nice breakdown of which relevant game stats each team has an advantage in. (Stats only calculated from 2015 Worlds. Bold indicates large advantage) 

Fnatic has an advantage in: {Earlygame rating, Mid/Lategame rating, Gold difference @15, First Blood%, First tower%, First Baron%}

Koo has an advantage in: {First Dragon%}

So… yeah, when we look at the stats, they tell us a very interesting and one-sided story. Regardless of anything else, these stats basically make our decision for us.

Koo Tigers ($3,600) : 3rd Best Pick

(See Teams>Fnatic above)

Origen ($3,500): Worst Pick

Unfortunately for the western world, Origen is the least likely team in the Semifinals to win this week. Personally, I’m rooting for them all the way, but I’m sure not going to hedge my bets anywhere near them.

(See Teams> SK Telecom T1 above)

Top

MaRin ($8,600): 2nd Best Pick – Would be the best pick, but he’s too expensive, and there’s the 3-0 problem, which is exacerbated by the fact that we will likely see a top-lane carry meta. 

Huni ($7,600): Best Pick – Decent price, and he’s a great player with good stats. However, most of these stats are not better than Smeb’s.  Assuming Fnatic wins the series though, Huni will likely be the best Toplaner to have had.

Smeb ($7,300): 3rd Best Pick – For $7,300, Smeb is the #1 toplaner in kills and champion damage/min. at Worlds.  With that said, his team is not favored to win their game, so he must be below MaRin and Huni.  All in all, drafting Smeb is not a bad idea if you need an extra $300. Assuming Koo wins the series, he will likely be the best toplaner to have had.

SoaZ ($6,700): Worst Pick – With the other 3 toplaners being so close in terms of draftability, there is zero reason to draft SoaZ this week.  He’s the lowest of the four in total kills and KDA. Furthermore, his team is expected to lose 0-3.

Jungle

Bengi ($8,200): Best Pick – I feel safest picking Bengi here. He’s an excellent jungler who’s tied for most kills and who has a great KDA. We know he’s not going to do badly, and although he’s expensive, he is a really good safety pick. This weekend, for the jungle role, I’d probably take Bengi.  With this said, Bengi, Reignover, and Hojin are all very close here. 

Reignover ($7,200): 2nd Best Pick – It’s very tough deciding who should be best/second best pick here. Reignover has the lowest KDA of the three, but he’s tied for most kills, and will probably win his game. 

Hojin ($7,100): 3rd Best Pick – For only $100 more, we can take Reignover and we have a better chance of taking the jungler of a 3-2 winning team. BUT Hojin has the least deaths, most assists, and best KDA of the 3. BUT he also has the worst average gold difference@10 by a large margin, and is expected to be on a losing team. 

Amazing ($6,500): Worst Pick – Again, no reason to pick Amazing here when we have 3 other stellar options. Only pick Amazing if you’re trying some crazy expensive roster and need the cheapest possible Jungler.

Mid

Faker ($8,500): 2nd Best Pick – Faker is expensive.  He’s also focused extremely hard by the enemy team, and has the lowest kill participation% of the three viable options this weekend. In addition, SKT will likely win 3-0, and that means that best case, not too many points for Faker. Although it’s absolutely possible that Faker will get an unfathomable amount of kills on Sunday, it’s not statistically likely. He’s a better pick than KurO though, as Koo will probably lose the matchup. But Faker’s price argues against that. 2nd and 3rd place here are really, really close.

Febiven ($7,800): Best Pick – Febiven doesn’t have a better KDA or more total kills than KurO, but in the midlane more than anywhere else, statistical comparisons between laners are very important and influential.  The comparison here: Febiven’s average CS difference@10 is significantly higher than KurO’s, and his average gold difference@10 is WAY higher than KurO’s. Furthermore, Fnatic is expected to win the matchup.

KurO ($7,700): 3rd Best Pick – (See Febiven and Faker Above)

xPeke ($7000): Worst Pick – Sorry Xpeke, but you’re the worst pick here by a mile. 

AD Carry

Bang ($8,800): 2nd Best Pick – Yes, I know Bang has a 27.3 KDA. No, that isn’t a typo. But factually speaking, he doesn’t have more kills than Rekkles, and for $700 more, he’s an ADC that will likely win his series 3-0 and has only a tiny, tiny advantage in Kill Participation% compared to Rekkles, but 3% more than PraY.

Rekkles ($8,100): Best Pick – A decent price for an ADC this weekend, and some great stats. Tied for most kills with Bang, and the highest KDA besides Bang’s ludicrous 27.3.  Even his Kill Participation% is less than 2% lower than Bang’s.  In this bo5 series, I’m taking Rekkles.

PraY ($7,500): 3rd Best Pick – Pray has the least kills, lowest KDA, and least Kill Participation% of the relevant three. To those of you drafting PraY, I wish you luck, you will need it.

Niels ($7,200): Worst Pick – Although he’s performed admirably, and I personally am rooting for him all the way, he simply must be the worst possible pick of the four today. It is very unlikely he will outperform Bang, and likely that Origen will lose their series 0-3.

Support

Wolf ($7,800): Best Pick – With an outstanding KDA and almost 10% more Kill Participation than Yell0wStaR, Wolf looks great here. He also has only 8 deaths across all games at Worlds, compared to the other 3 options, who all have 21+.  He is expensive, but if you can afford to add him to a roster you already like, go for it. My only qualm with him is that, once again, it is very possible that he will only play in 3 games. 

Yell0wStaR ($7,100): 2nd Best Pick – A very close second, Yell0wStaR is the support of a team expected to win, and is significantly less expensive than our ‘best’ option here.  The problems with him are these: He has the least assists of the three viable options here, and a scary looking Kill Participation% that is 6% lower than Gorilla’s and 7% lower than Wolf’s.  if Fnatic wins though, he will have more fantasy points than Gorilla, and if they win 3-2 or 3-1, he may have more points than Wolf.

Gorilla ($6,900): 3rd Best Pick – Gorilla has 6% more Kill Participation than Yell0wStaR and more assists overall, but he has a slightly lower KDA (4.0 vs. 4.8.)  All in all, if Fnatic wins the series, Gorilla will probably not have been a good pick, and Fnatic is statistically more likely to win the series. That makes the decision easy for me.

Mithy ($6,300): Worst Pick – Why draft Mithy when you could draft one of the other three? He’s certainly not viable as a flexpick, and would be a bad choice overall.

Flex

Viable Flex Picks*: 

[Any ‘2nd Best’ or ‘Best’ player] ; [KurO] ; [Smeb]

*(Best-Worst decisions are completely dependent on your roster)

My Rosters / Example Recommended Rosters

*Please note that these are by no means the only rosters that are viable. These just represent some of my own rosters, and are ones that I would recommend.

Top: Huni                                                                                                                                                 Top: Huni

Jungle: Bengi                                                                                                                                          Jungle: Reignover

Mid: Febiven                                                                                                                                           Mid: Febiven

ADC: Rekkles                                                                                                                                          ADC: Rekkles

Support: Yell0wStaR                                                                                                                           Support: Wolf

Flex: Smeb                                                                                                                                               Flex: KurO

Team: SKT                                                                                                                                               Team: SKT

Good luck this weekend!

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*Statistics gathered from Oracle’s Elixir

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