During Cup Series and Camping World Truck Series practice on Friday, FS1 broadcaster and former driver, Clint Bowyer joked that even if it rained, they could race. For those not familiar with racing on dirt, it probably sounded logical. My first thought however was — “how in the hell would they see?” The answer was, they can’t. NASCAR quickly found that out on Saturday afternoon when they decided to throw the green flag. The windshields are missing from dirt cars for a good reason. The race was quickly red flagged, and it was decided that we would have to wait until Sunday to sling some mud and for NASCAR DFS.
You can find the NCWTS Bristol DIRT DFS: Advice, Values and Strategy Guide here.
The choice was made to cancel all heat (qualifying) races and to hold both A-main events on Sunday afternoon. The Cup Series will go first at 3:30pm/ET with the Food City Dirt Race, followed by the NCWTS at 8:00pm/ET. The drivers were assigned starting positions last night, so the good news is that we can focus on setting our lineups early in the day Sunday.
Competition Caution
Kyle Larson
There are a few things we need to look at prior to the cars hitting the clay today. The first thing we’re going to talk about is Kyle Larson. As mentioned in yesterday’s Truck Series DFS article, Larson is the king of dirt — at least for my generation. He is the highest priced driver on Draftkings at $12,000 for good reason too. He was a must play despite his price, at least until yesterday after yesterday’s second practice session.
Spoiler: they did have to change it.
With Larson starting in the rear, but being scored from the pole position he almost exclusively becomes a fade. I’ll have some exposure in a few random lines, but it will be very, very limited.
Weather
It will be interesting to see if NASCAR tries to get these races in on Sunday. There is more rain and nasty weather in the forecast for a majority of the day today, so when it is all said and done, we may end up being forced to wait until Monday. The condition of the track will be very different than the dry-slick conditions we seen in practice, at least to start. Drivers with experience racing on this surface may have more of an advantage when making changes to their cars to accommodate the tacky clay.
NASCAR DFS: Top DIRT Drivers
Christopher Bell: #20 | Joe Gibbs Racing – Toyota | $11,000
There are roughly eight dirt ringers at the top of the pricing on Draftkings, so we’re just going to give them their own tier here. The first driver we are going to talk about since we already discussed Larson, is Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell. Bell too is an accomplished racer of the dirt surfaces and should be a contender to lead some laps and also win today.
If you read my article from yesterday, you will know that we talked about the importance of finding guys with good 10-lap averages. When it comes to Bell, his ranking in that category was far from impressive. We’re tilting to using him because of two things.
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- The track conditions have drastically changed and Bell will know how to get that car handling in a hurry.
- He starts 15th. That means he will get a solid amount of position differential points while moving up through the field.
One thing that was impressive was his second fastest lap time in the overall scoring of the second practice. He posted an average speed of 88.999 mph in the No. 20 Toyota and will be fast whenever they get this race in. I have the feeling he is good for both cash and tournaments.
No hesitation necessary.
Tyler Reddick: #8 | Richard Childress Racing – Chevy | $10,500
Directly under Bell in pricing for NASCAR DFS is fellow dirt racer, Tyler Reddick. Before we dig in too far, I will say that Reddick has had a mostly disappointing season thus far. He’s shown speed at various tracks like Homestead-Miami, and also left us incredibly disappointed like he did last week at Atlanta. Going back to him here almost feels like a bad idea.
Almost.
The reason we are going back, is because the NASCAR Cup Series hasn’t seen a race like this in 60 years. The last time a race in the sport’s top series was run on dirt, Richard Petty won in 1970. Whoever wins this race is going to have to take changes, take care of their equipment and in my opinion — come from a dirt background.
Reddick will roll off the grid in 27th this afternoon. He will have the opportunity to earn points for passing cars, but he will also be more likely to get caught up in trouble. One thing that I love, is that he posted the second fastest 15-lap average in practice two with a 20.75.
He is a risky play and is better suited for GPP’s than cash builds.
Ryan Blaney: #12 | Team Penske – Ford | $9,300
Ryan Blaney has quickly become one of my favorite drivers for this race. For starters, Blaney too comes from a dirt racing family. His dad Dave was a well-known, accomplished sprint car driver, and Ryan has run some dirt cars as well. That’s just the beginning though.
He also has the benefit of starting from the inside of the front row due to Larson dropping to the back. While Denny Hamlin is technically the pole sitter, he will NOT have lane choice. Blaney also posted the fastest lap early on in the second 50-minute practice session with a time of 20.172 seconds at 89.233 mph in the No. 12 Team Penske Ford. His ten lap averages were good for top-10 in both practices to top things off.
“People always think I grew up dirt racing because of what my dad did,” Blaney said. “I’ve only been on dirt a handful of times in like a 410 Sprint Car or a big-block Modified. I did the Truck race at Eldora a couple of times, but I wasn’t able to do dirt prep before this weekend in Bristol. I’ve been getting insight from dad, and I guess I will rely on my family genes to get around there.”
The formula is there to start last week’s Atlanta winner again this week with confidence in both cash and tournament builds.
NASCAR DFS: Best of the Mid-Range Price Tags
Denny Hamlin: #11 | Joe Gibbs Racing – Toyota | $9,200
Denny Hamlin is just $100 cheaper than our favorite for Sunday’s race in Blaney, but he doesn’t have the dirt racing in his blood. In fact, he has very little experience driving on anything other than asphalt. Dennis is however, a very smart man and could be an under utilized play later on this afternoon.
Despite not spending much time on the countries many dirt tracks, Hamlin looked stout in both practices Friday. In practice one, he posted the sixth fastest average with an 86.156 with fresh tires. In practice No. 2 he showed that he could also save his rubber, posting the sessions third quickest average and also doing it later in the run. His 87.015mph was run from laps 45-54. His 15-lap average came in at 20.99, sixth best overall.
Hamlin will start from the outside of the front row as previously mentioned. That means there is danger of a negative correlation in terms of position differential, but with the way he practiced, I feel as though he won’t drift too far backwards. Hamlin is great for cash and double-ups.
Chase Elliott: #9 | Hendrick Motorsports – Chevy | $8,700
It’s rare that we visit a NASCAR track and I say that playing Chase Elliott is a risk. The thing is though, most tracks are not Bristol with nine-feet of dirt and clay on top, and Elliott is sort of sketchy with it being somewhat unknown. However, no risk it — no croissant.
I think?
Getting into the nitty-gritty now, Elliott is an aggressive drive who seems to have the dirt racing mentality. He did some dirt racing last winter and in Friday’s practices, Elliott timed in with the fourth best 10-lap average during the first practice and fourth in the second practice too. He too showed the ability to save his tires, and also go out and lay down some last laps one after another.
Chase will start the race from p.26, so there are bonus points available if he is able to move forward — and he should. Elliott is a relatively safe cash play, and is great for GPP’s.
Martin Truex Jr: #19 | Joe Gibbs Racing – Toyota | $8,000
I honestly never thought I would see the day again that Martin Truex Jr was priced at $8k on any DFS site, especially for a Cup Series race. It’s happened though for today, and dirt race or not we are going to take advantage of this cheap price tag. The best thing about it, it’s really not all that risky.
In fact, he’s really safe for cash. I think.
The elder of the two Truex bros, Martin appeared to take on to the slideways turning style really well in both truck and Cup practices. He was sixth and third in terms of 10-lap average and fourth in terms of 15-lap intervals. Because of Larson being forced to drop to the rear, Truex will benefit from this as well. He will line up on the preferred inside row in third, directly behind one of our other favorites in Blaney.
Lock him in for cash.
Top Value Plays
Ryan Preece: #37 | JTG-Daughtry Racing – Chevy | $6,000
There are two solid value plays that I feel really good about this week, and Ryan Preece is one of them. Preece, an accomplished modified racer is known for his pedigree on short tracks. Usually they are of the paved variety, though. For today’s race, we’re not going to let that scare us away.
RP was one of a handful of drivers, who’s car looked to drive pretty well in practice once a lot of rubber way laid down and the track dried out. He was able to navigate traffic well in the bottom grove on the .533-mile oval, likely because once all the rubber is built up, the car drives more and more like it’s on blacktop. As far as 10-lap averages are concerned, he came in 14th and 19th between the two practice sessions. What was most impressive however, was his average in the 15-lap segment, posting an average lap time of 21.03.
Goof for eighth overall.
He will start the race from p.22 and should be able to move up if he can avoid trouble. I have him in play for both cash and tournament builds.
Corey Lajoie: #7 | Spire Motorsports – Chevy | $5,000
This is officially the first time this year that I’ve had Corey Lajoie amongst my recommended plays, and I’ll be honest with you — it could be the last. Out of all the cheaper plays on Draftkings, Lajoie appeared to have the most speed. His 15-lap average was stellar, coming in fifth in the second practice with an average time of 20.97. His 10-lappers were both top-21.
At a price of $5k and starting from 30th there’s not a lot to not like here, besides his questionable equipment. As with every driver, he has to stay out of trouble. If he can, it won’t be hard for him to hit value.
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