So it is Week 4, and we are beginning to trust the stats and trends. However, keep in mind that some stats are still skewed by outrageous performances. Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes week one (week two zero touchdowns and two interceptions and week three two touchdowns and zero interceptions) or Derrick Henry’s running all over the Tennessee Titans in week two ( 182 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while in week one he ran for 58 yards) are two examples of performances that skew the stat sheet.
Let’s see who looks good this week. The games are arranged from highest over/under to lowest. Team stats are from teamrankings.com.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, started as 55o/u,now 54.5o/u Chiefs started as 6.5 favorite now 7
SIT: MECOLE HARDMAN, WIDE RECEIVER, CHIEFS
Hardman had one receiving touchdown last week. He was targeted four times, had three receptions and 33 yards also.
The Eagles may suck against the tight end position, but they are pretty solid against wide receivers. They are actually allowing the fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
So remember while Dalton Shultz scorched them for 80 receiving yards and two touchdowns last week. Cee Dee Lamb and Amari Cooper combined had 92 yards and zero touchdowns.
START: MILES SANDERS, RUNNING BACK, EAGLES
I haven’t forgotten that Sanders had two carries for 27 yards against the Cowboys (all in the first half). Here is hoping that the Eagles don’t forget Sanders this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the running back position (29.77 avg).
Sanders is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and is on the field for 64.6% snap share. The goal is to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and running the ball is the best way to accomplish that.
PROP BET: Speaking of Mahomes, Sunday’s passing yards prop bet for Mahomes is set at 300.5. That is 12.8 fewer yards than his season average of 313.3. (The Eagles are fifth in passing yards allowed per game, averaging 181.7).
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CAROLINA PANTHERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS started at 50 o/u now 50.5 o/u, Dallas was favorite 5 now favorite 4.5
SIT: TONY POLLARD, RUNNING BACK, DALLAS
The Carolina Panthers’ defense is scary good, especially against the run. In the three games this season, they have not allowed a rushing touchdown. They also have made first contact with running backs 0.22 yards behind the line of scrimmage (best in the NFL). So far, running backs are averaging 8.03 fantasy points against them.
START: SAM DARNOLD, QUARTERBACK, CAROLINA
No quarterback has thrown for less than 325 passing yards against the Cowboys this season. Darnold is averaging 296 passing yards per game, with a 99 QBR and a 68.2 completion percentage. Oh, and he also has three rushing touchdowns.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS o/u started at 53 is now 51.5; Browns favorite 2
SIT: ALEXANDER MATTISON, RUNNING BACK, MINNESOTA
Mattison performed well in Dalvin Cook’s absence in Week 3 (26 carries, 112 yards, 8 targets, 6 receptions, 59 yards), but that was against the Seattle Seahawks defense, who are giving up the most fantasy points to the running back position.
This week Minnesota will play Cleveland, who are giving up the third least amount of fantasy points to the running back position (13.13). This season, the Browns have not had a running back gain over 50 yards, including the Chiefs’ Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who had 43 rushing yards on 14 carries against them in Week 1.
START: ODELL BECKHAM JR., WIDE RECEIVER, CLEVELAND
Let’s face it we were all a little hesitant about putting OBJ in the line-up last week. But he finished with a team-leading nine targets, five receptions for 77 yards. He also had one carry for 10 yards.
Now the Browns will face the Vikings secondary, who are not what we thought they were. Bashaud Breeland and Patrick Peterson have given up 28 receptions on 34 targets, and receivers have gained 439 yards and six touchdowns per Pro Football Focus.
OBJ should hold his own and then some.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS started 54.5 o/u is now 55 o/u, Rams were 6 favorites now 4.5
Fun fact: Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals have never beaten Sean McVay’s Rams.
SIT: TYLER HIGBEE, TIGHT END, RAMS
Higbee has been the sleeper choice for the past few weeks. Once upon a time, the Cardinals were the team you always started your tight-end against have become the team you should not start your tight-end against.
The Cardinals are giving up an average of 4.27 fantasy points to the tight end position (4th best).
START: AJ GREEN, WIDE RECEIVER, CARDINALS
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Do you dare? In the last three games, Green has been targeted six times each game. His receptions have increased from two-three-five, and his receiving yards have increased from 25-44-112.
WEEKLY JALEN RAMSEY PSA ANNOUNCEMENT: In 2020, Ramsey shadowed DeAndre Hopkins and held him to 48 yards on 15 targets. This season Ramsey has been covering the slot more than ever (54.8%). Rondale Moore, beware.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO NINERS, over/under, started 52.5 now 52, Niners favorite 3
SIT: SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Not sure who needs to hear this, but the Seahawks defense should not be started as a streaming option.
In the last two weeks, they have given up 30 and 33 points, respectively They are the 24th worst coverage unit and average 155 rushing yards per game.
START: JIMMY GAROPPOLO, QUARTERBACK, NINERS
Contrary to the chatter, Garoppolo is still the quarterback of the Niners. He has been on the field for 96.4% of the offensive snaps (okay, so Trey Lance comes in now and then). Garoppolo has 13 red zone attempts, and he is averaging eight yards per attempt.
There is always the possibility that he is pulled for Lance, but his ceiling against a porous Seahawks secondary is high.
PROP BETS GAROPPOLO BETMGM.COM: Passing touchdowns over 1.5 -135, under 1.5 +100
Garoppolo Week 1 one touchdown, passing 314 yards, Week 2 one touchdown, 189 passing yards, Week 3 two touchdowns, 257 passing yards.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (MONDAY NIGHT), over/under started 52.5, now 51.5, Chargers favorite 3.5 now 3
SIT: JOSH JACOBS, RUNNING BACK, RAIDERS
This is not an indictment on Jacobs but rather a cautionary tale because the game is on Monday night. Jacobs last played Week 1. Although he has practiced all week, Kenyan Drake and Peyton Barber are lurking in the backfield.
Even if he is 100% will he get enough snaps to justify being in your line-up?
START: KEENAN ALLEN, WIDE RECEIVER, CHARGERS
Some not many are scared against starting Allen because of the emergence of Mike Williams.
Through three games, Allen has three touchdowns, 33 targets, 89.3% snap share, and a 27% target share.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, 49o/u, Buccaneers started 6.5 favorites, now 7
SIT: ROB GRONKOWSKI, TIGHT END, TAMPA BAY
It isn’t only that he has missed both practices Wednesday and Thursday with a rib injury. It is that the Patriots are yielding an average of 2.23 fantasy points to the tight end position.
START: MAC JONES, QUARTERBACK, NEW ENGLAND
While the narrative blathers on about revenge game and homecoming and blah, blah, blah, it might very well be the Patriots’ current quarterback who has the best game.
The Buccaneers are great against the run (ranked fourth, giving up 63.7 rushing yards per game). They are porous against the pass (ranked 32nd, giving up 338.3 passing yards per game).
HOUSTON TEXANS @ BUFFALO BILLS, over/under, started 48, now 47, Bills were 16.5 favorites, now 17
SIT: DAVIS MILLS, QUARTERBACK, TEXANS
With Tyrod Taylor on IR, Mills will again get the start. He will go against a Bills’ defense that is fourth against the pass (allowing an average of 178 passing yards per game) and fifth in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position (average 13.16).
START: ZACK MOSS, RUNNING BACK, BILLS
This game could get ugly quickly. And while Moss is only on the field for 41% snap share, he has 10 red zone touches on 21 carries.
Look for the Bills to lean on the run game and Moss to continue his assault of the red zone.
WFT @ ATLANTA FALCONS, over/under started 48 now 47.5, WFT 1.5 favorites
SIT: MIKE DAVIS, RUNNING BACK, ATLANTA
Still working on the Davis experiment in Atlanta. In three games he has not eclipsed 50 rushing yards, and although he is seeing targets (4-7-6 respectively), he has not gone beyond 25 receiving yards.
Now he meets a WFT defense that is not what we expected (giving up an average of 125 rushing yards a game) but still holding opposing running backs to 16.50 average fantasy points.
START: LOGAN THOMAS, TIGHT END, WFT
On the other hand, Atlanta is surrendering an average of 16.13 fantasy points to the tight end position.
Since Taylor Heincke has been under center, Thomas has been targeted 11 times for nine receptions, 87 yards, and one touchdown.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW YORK JETS over/under started 45.5 now 44.5, Titans started 7.5 favorites now 7
SIT: TYLER KROFT, TIGHT END, NEW YORK JETS
He isn’t on many (if any radar), so consider this a friendly reminder for those streaming tight ends. Do not play Tyler Kroft. He is dealing with a rib injury, he only has 46 yards on three receptions and zero touchdowns for three weeks, and the Titans are only giving up 2.23 fantasy points to the tight end position.
SIT: RYAN TANNEHILL, QUARTERBACK, TENNESSEE TITANS
I know two sits, no starts? Do you have another option? Tannehill is getting better, and well, it is against the Jets. But you have two concerns here: 1) the Jets are actually good against the quarterbacks in the fantasy realm, and they have only allowed three red-zone touches. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 12.17 fantasy points against them; 2) Derrick Henry because the Jets are the third-worst team against running backs in the fantasy realm. Giving up an average of 30.47 fantasy points to the running back position.
So consider this a sit-sit-start section of the program.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS over/under 45.5, Packers 6.5 favorites
Fun fact: This is one of the few lines that has not seen movement.
SIT: BEN ROETHLISBERGER, QUARTERBACK, PITTSBURGH
Although Green Bay is relatively generous to opposing quarterbacks (23.02 average fantasy points), Roethlisberger has issues. Like one touchdown, two interceptions, four sacks, one carry for five yards in Week 3 issues. He is averaging 6.2 yards per attempt and has a deep ball completion rate of 26.7%. Yeah, it is bad.
START: DAVANTE ADAMS, WIDE RECEIVER, GREEN BAY
Um, yeah, he had a 58.1% target share in Week 3. The Steelers are good against the run but have problems with wide receivers, and they are currently 28th in fantasy points to wide receivers (average 44.93).
If you are wondering, the second most targeted wide receiver in Green Bay is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who is working through a hamstring injury and has only seen 16 targets to Adams’ 34.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DENVER BRONCOS over/under started 44 now 45, Broncos were 1.5 favorites now 1
SIT: TY’SON WILLIAMS, RUNNING BACK, RAVENS
The Broncos defense only allows opposing running backs 59.3 rushing yards per game, and in fantasy, that equals an average of 8.63 fantasy points per game.
So, Baltimore, who rushes on an average of 50.52% of their offensive plays and average the second-most yards per run play (4.9), maybe struggling just a bit.
START: NOAH FANT, TIGHT END, BRONCOS
The Ravens are giving up the most fantasy points to the tight end position (20.63).
Fant, who currently sits as TE11 in fantasy, is on the field for 83.7% of the offensive snaps and owns an 18.3% target share with five red-zone targets.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS, over/under, started 43.5, now 42.5, Dolphins were 1.5 favorites 2
SIT: MYLES GASKIN, RUNNING BACK, DOLPHINS
Gaskin just isn’t doing it. Last week against the Raiders (in overtime), he had 13 carries for 65 yards, six targets, three receptions, and nine yards.
He was also out-touched in the red zone by Malcolm Brown, who had seven carries for 31 yards and a touchdown.
START: JONATHAN TAYLOR, RUNNING BACK, COLTS
I can only say the Dolphins defense surrendered 23.2 fantasy points to the Raiders back-up running back Peyton Barber last week.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, over/under, started 43.5, now 42, Saints were favorites 8 now 7
SIT: DANIEL JONES, QUARTERBACK, GIANTS
This is not a knock on Jones. He actually has been pretty okay. But this game will be nuts in New Orleans. And the Saints’ defense are holding opposing quarterbacks to the second-fewest fantasy points (10.85) and only allowing them to complete 61.3% of their passes (sixth lowest).
START: ALVIN KAMARA, RUNNING BACK, SAINTS
I know you are going to start him regardless. This is just a friendly reminder that the Giants are giving up an average of 27.57 fantasy points to the running back position. That includes allowing 23 targets, 21 receptions, and four red-zone targets.
DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS, over/under, started 42.5 is now 42, Bears favorites 3
SIT: JUSTIN FIELDS, QUARTERBACK, BEARS
This says more about Matt Nagy and less about Fields.
START: TJ HOCKENSON, TIGHT END, LIONS
Hockenson is currently TE3 in fantasy. He is on the field for 88.3% offensive snaps and owns a 17.8% target share. You know Jared Goff will go to him no matter what, and that is good against a dysfunctional Bears’ team.
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