NFL DFS Week 5 Market Check: Tight Ends

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TheWolfofRoto.com is founded by a former D1 coach and football junkie who watches and breaks down NFL film everyday to find the best matchups for NFL DFS each week.

Our content is 100% Free and our mission is pretty simple: provide you with excellent matchups.  We know you are busy, and can’t watch every game… so let our coaches help!

Throughout the week our Market Checks provide a video breakdown of each position.  These are brief summaries to get you thinking about the upcoming matchups.

On Friday we make picks for each position, but we do it a little bit differently.  We break the salary pool down into the 4 tiers:

• Blue Chips: The guys are the C.R.E.A.M of the crop (they have the highest salaries). If you’re looking to spend money at a certain position we recommend a Blue Chip.

• Bulls: The term Bull is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. We believe these guys have a high ceiling for a moderate salary. Draft them now before they’re a Blue Chip!

• Penny Stocks: Spend all your money on other positions? Scrape the bottom of the barrel with our Penny Stock plays. These guys are near-minimum salary, but have the potential to out-perform your opponents’ Blue Chips!

• Bears: Last… and least… we have BEARS.  No, not Chicago Bears, we love Matt Forte. The term Bear also draws inspiration from Wall Street.

By providing picks at the different salary tiers we give our readers options or ideas on where and how to spend their DFS salaries each week.

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Hope you enjoy our NFL DFS Week 5 Tight End Market Check!

BULL MARKET

Players we believe will out-perform their salary for the week. These guys will give you the most bang for your buck when you are building lineups.

Charles Clay @TEN | DraftKings: $4,100, FanDuel: $5,700

Over the past 2 weeks Clay has posted a healthy 14-193-1 line. His 20 targets in the last 2 games leads all TE’s. With this kind of volume, he is the perfect high floor (safe) TE option with high ceiling on a weekly basis. With his still meager salary of $4,100 on DraftKings Clay is also an intriguing Flex play as well. He will be utilized in a majority of my lineups.

Owen Daniels @OAK | DraftKings: $2,700, FanDuel: $4,900

The Broncos offense is starting to come to life. Over the past two weeks Daniels has posted a 7-37-2 line. Not earth shattering numbers, but the video shows he is clearly a red zone favorite of Manning. Owens holds a commanding 57% (4) of red zone targets over the past two weeks. Not to mention every TE thus far has shredded the Raiders D. Daniels is a bargain at his low salary of $2,700 because he could easily have a multi TD day.

Zach Ertz vs. NO | DraftKings: $2,900, FanDuel: $5,000

This is much more of a gamble than the Clay and Daniels, but this game features the highest Vegas over under total of the week at 49.5. It has all the makings to be a shootout, with both defenses solid against the run but horrible against the pass. I expect Bradford to build off his 3 TD week 4 and the New Orleans Lb’s and Safeties have proven they are incompetent in coverage. If there was ever a time for Ertz to get rolling….it’s now. Ertz is a good tourney option as Clay/Gronk/Daniels will be very popular picks.

BEAR MARKET

Players that won’t perform up to their salaries.  You can find better value elsewhere.

Maxx Williams @TEN | DraftKings: $3,300, FanDuel: $4,800

I made the mistake of playing Williams in my Thursday night tournament lineup last week thinking he would easily meet his value at his bare minimum price tag of $2,500. Instead Trestman opted to use multi TE sets and 21 personnel formations to get the run game going. Also the video above shows “3rd string” TE Nick Boyle because he plays nearly the same amount of snaps as Williams and had more catches last Thursday. With Gillmore possibly returning Sunday Williams could be the third TE option, there’s no way I’m touching Maxx this week.

Jimmy Graham @CIN | DraftKings: $6,100, FanDuel: $6,000

I told you back before the season that Graham would miss the pass first Saints offense. According to Pro Football Focus, through 4 weeks with Seahawks, Graham has been thrown at 22 times for a statline of 18-174-2. This time last year with the Saints he was thrown at 41 times for a statline of 32-340-3. Missing Brees yet? We do too Jimmy. And if you’re still trying to draft Jimmy when he does have a breakout week I’d keep waiting, according to ESPN’s fantasy points against the Bengals are the giving up 5th lowest points to TE’s at 3.8 points per game. Graham and the Seahawks may get going as the season goes on, but I’m not betting on them after a short week and a cross country trip vs a good defense.

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