Every week in NFL DFS you’ll notice players you feel are either severely over or under priced. At the beginning of the season, this effect is more pronounced as player’s salaries are based on last year’s performances and expectations, rather than on current on-field production. This is not necessarily a bad thing though, as we can use this to find value and avoid over-priced land minds.
Keep in mind, this list will change during preseason when injuries occur and when position battles are won and lost. So, without further fanfare, a very early look at some of the more over-priced players you should avoid in Week 1.
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning ($9,100) Manning basically had two seasons last year, a very good first half and a very bad second half. Hobbled by age and injury, the QB averaged 10.93 fantasy points per game over his last 6 contests. He’ll have to score 18.2 fpts to return cash game value in week 1. He’s a year older, the team is transforming into a power running team and he lost TE Julius Thomas.
Robert Griffin III ($7,300) Griffin has been a complete mess the last two seasons, getting benched in both, and seems to have lost the confidence of his coach. While his salary might seem low, he only averaged 10.4 fpts per game last season. To put this in perspective, Geno Smith average more fantasy points than Griffin last season. He’s priced higher than Teddy Bridgewater and Andy Dalton, who averaged 14.4 and 15 respectively.
Honorable Mention: Eli Manning ($8,300), Colin Kaepernick ($7,900)
Running Backs
Adrian Peterson ($9,200) Adrian Peterson is the most expensive running back in the Week 1 slate. He played in one game last season, he’s 30 years old and he won’t get a single carry in the preseason. Risk/reward is tilted out of our favor if we roster Peterson.
DeMarco Murray ($8,500) On the surface, it seems like Murray, last year’s rushing leader, is a bargain as the 7th highest priced RB. However, if we dig deeper we find out this isn’t the case. RBs with over 400 touches traditionally fared badly their next season, Philadelphia’s offensive line was ranked 28th last year in run blocking and the Eagles also signed Ryan Matthews.
Honorable Mention: Arian Foster ($9,000), Andre Ellington ($7,900), Frank Gore ($7,500)
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones ($9,000) I was hoping to be able to roster Jones, as he has a great match-up and new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan really targets the X receiver. However, even though I believe Jones is capable of a great day, I can’t justify paying the highest price on the board for him.
Odell Beckham Jr ($8,900) My rationale with Beckham is similar to Jones. He’s fully capable of a great game against Dallas, but his price is just too high. Furthermore, he didn’t really explode until Victor Cruz and Rashad Jennings got injured, forcing New York to abandon the run and target him heavily.
Keenan Allen ($7,900) After a 1046 yard, 8 TD rookie campaign, Allen regressed to 783 yards and 4 TDs last season. His salary however has not regressed. He averaged only 9.8 fpts per game and there are 17 other wide receivers on the slate with lower price tags.
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Honorable Mention: Emmanuel Sanders ($8,200), Sammy Watkins ($7,600)
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham ($6,900) Graham had a pretty miserable 2014 season, battling injuries, drops and overall inconsistent play. Now he finds himself in a new system in Seattle, a system in which we have no idea how he’ll be utilized by the run-first Seahawks. Too much uncertainty surrounds Graham to justify his salary as the most expensive TE on the Sunday-Monday slate.
Ladarius Green ($5,700) The suspension of Antonio Gates prompted this salary, but it leaves Green as the 6th highest priced tight end. He has all the tools, but in 2014 he caught 19 passes for 224 yards and no TDs. Let others take their chances, hoping once again, for a breakout year from Green.
Honorable Mention: Jason Witten ($5,800)
Kickers
Justin Tucker ($5,200) This one is simple. While Tucker is a very good kicker, he’s the most expensive kicker on the board, he does not play for anything close to the most proficient offense and he kicks outdoors.
Honorable Mention: Phil Dawson ($5,000)
Defenses
San Francisco 49ers ($4,600) The 49er’s defense is living on reputation alone at this point. Ravaged by injuries and the retirements of Justin Smith, Patrick Willis and Chris Borland, they are a shell of what they once were. Don’t do this to yourself.
Honorable Mention: Cleveland Browns ($4,600)
In my next installment, I’ll take a look at the other side of the coin; some of the lower priced “diamonds in the rough” that you may want to target this season.
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