What’s up everyone! JerryWilkeFM here with a new article series. Over the next 8 weeks I will be coming out with a player that I love and hate from their respective teams at their ADPs. I’ll give a little insight on why I love/hate them, give thoughts on how I’m approaching them outside of redraft leagues and maybe even throwing some names out there that might have been forgotten. We’re going to kick it off with the division that houses my favorite team, the AFC East. I look forward to seeing your feedback!
AFC East
*based on Fantasy Football Calculator. All ADPs are based on single QB, PPR, redraft leagues.
Bills
Love: Jamison Crowder, UDFA, WR58+ (unlisted)
Crowder walks into an offense where just his predecessor alone demanded target numbers of 106, 107 and 112. While everyone believes that Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis are due to take a leap, which they might, Crowder basically just replaces what Cole Beasley was on the slot. Multiple pass catchers on this offense can coexist on a weekly basis.
Barring injury, I’m probably not consistently starting Crowder, but in deeper leagues with multiple flex positions I would be happy to start a player who could see 10 Josh Allen targets any single game. Even though his ADP is later than what my research site lists, I will be targeting Crowder during my last round or two of my drafts.
Embed from Getty ImagesHate: Josh Allen, 2.01, QB1
As a Bills fan, I absolutely love Josh Allen and am excited to watch him continue to grow. From a fantasy standpoint though, I have never been a fan of taking my quarterback this early. He’s been the QB1 two years in a row now and that trend is very possible to continue. I just hate giving up the opportunity to draft my RB1 or WR1 in the early second and then have to wait 20-24 picks until I pick again.
These players may not give you the Josh Allen output but I’d be fine with any of these guys later in the draft and fading Allen in the 2nd round: Matt Stafford, Russ Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, the list goes on. In a Super Flex/2QB my stance definitely changes but in a single QB I’m stocking up those skill positions.
Jets
Love: Elijah Moore, 6.02, WR26
The six games before Elijah Moore was injured, he looked like one of the best rookie wide receivers of the class. In fact, outside of his very first game, which also happened to be Zach Wilson’s very first game, and the game in London vs Atlanta, Moore saw no less than 6 targets in his active games. The downside, 4 of those 7 straight games of 6+ targets may have been with quarterbacks not named Zach Wilson. The Jets also used a top 10 pick on Ohio State standout, Garrett Wilson.
If I’m drafting for a dynasty then I’d put Wilson slightly ahead of Moore for sure, but the gap isn’t that big. In a redraft my interest shifts to Moore. He has some chemistry with Wilson already and shined in his limited playing time. In the 6th round he’s ideally my WR3/flex option so sign me up for that.
Hate: Michael Carter, 6.08, RB29
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The Jets not only lowered Moore’s value by drafting a top 10 WR, they also diminished Michael Carter’s value by taking the first running back off of the board in the second round, Breece Hall out of Iowa State. I probably could have listed both Carter and Hall in this article because they are back to back in ADP but I’d be more willing to take Hall here.
Now we have seen Carter have success while sharing a backfield. During his college tenure, him and Javonte Williams were tearing it up at UNC. Breece Hall just seems to do everything better; better pass catcher, stronger runner, finds the end zone better. I’m just not sure how these two will compliment each other. Where Carter was going, Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary, Melvin Gordon and even another guy in this same article were all going and I’d be happier leaving the draft with one of them over Carter.
Dolphins
Love: Chase Edmonds, 8.06, RB36
Speaking of another guy in this same article, Chase Edmonds is that guy! You might look at the Dolphins running back depth chart in disgust but Edmonds is the most talented back on this roster and I believe he’ll have a chance to prove why he should be the lead early. We saw a little of the 1-2 punch last year when Edmonds was in Arizona with James Conner and it worked. I believe Edmonds best fits the bill for the type of offense Miami wants to run.
His pass catching ability allows for Tua to have a quick outlet pass while defenses are trying to keep up with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The one downside is 2020 was Edmonds biggest workload and he happened to miss 5 games. Does he have the durability? Bringing in Sony Michel and Raheem Mostert might be able to preserve some energy and save his body to help bring you home a fantasy championship!
Embed from Getty ImagesHate: Tyreek Hill, 2.07, WR7
I won’t spend a lot of time on Tyreek Hill. If you’d like, there is a snippet on our YouTube explaining why I’m out on Hill in general. My biggest gripe with him is we don’t see WRs having a ton of success after switching teams right away. Sure it’s happened recently with Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins but those are just two examples out of many.
Long term, I like Hill more. Miami paid him, he’s got an excellent talent on the other side to take away coverage but I think I’m out in 2022. I need to see a more consistent Tua and how the ball will be distributed between Hill, Waddle, Gesicki and the guy I mentioned above. I’d much rather have Diggs or CeeDee Lamb who are going around Hill or even AJ Brown, Mike Evans and Keenan Allen who are just a couple picks later.
Patriots
Love: DeVante Parker, 10.08, WR45
Time to contradict myself. Like Tyreek Hill, DeVante Parker also switched teams this off-season. However, unlike Hill, Parker doesn’t need to put up WR1 numbers to return ADP value. Parker is going in the double digit rounds and has a realistic chance to be the WR1 on his team. 70 receptions for 900 yards and 6 TDs is perfectly fine for a guy who will most likely be your WR5. Similar to Crowder, I’m targeting Parker anywhere I can.
I’ve even offered some mid to low rookie picks for him in some dynasty leagues. We know Parker has the talent and even though the fantasy world doesn’t see Mac Jones as a fantasy type QB, he’s an accurate QB that can get the ball to his best playmakers. He might not start on the depth chart as the 1 but I have confidence that he’ll surpass Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers sooner than later.
Hate: Damien Harris, 4.02 RB19
Picking a Patriots running back may seem like a cop out but this Patriots running back happened to have 15 touchdowns last year. So why do I hate him? Because he’s going in the 4th round as a high end RB2. He may not even be the best RB on his own team plus the Patriots decided to bring in two more guys via the draft and resigned James White, who missed all of 2021.
The one positive about Harris is we’ve seen Bill Belichick completely disregard his running backs after they’ve fumbled and/or got injured but for some reason he kept putting Harris back on the field. I love Harris overall. I’m holding all of my dynasty shares in hopes that he goes to a less crowded backfield after his contract is up this year, but for 2022 I am a little less interested unless his ADP comes down a few rounds.
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