Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/1)

The huge two-homer game from Brian McCann on Wednesday was my first double dong since starting this article series. Remarkably catcher has resulted in my highest success rate and second highest FanDuel points average so far. Today’s home run calls will be for the 13-game night slate as we kick off July and a big holiday weekend. Note that I will start adding the FanDuel and DraftKings prices for each player listed. Also, note that positions listed are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – James McCann (DET) (FD: $2,500 / DK: $3,100) – McCann has hit four of his five homers this season off lefties and will face Rays lefty Drew Smyly tonight who he has gone 4-for-5 against with two homers in his career.

1B – Kendrys Morales (KC) (FD: $3,700 / DK: $3,600) – Morales has been hot recording multiple hits in six straight games including three doubles and three homers. He will look to keep his hot streak going against the Phillies Jeremy Hellickson who has given up 2.02 HR/9 to lefties this season.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FD: $3,100 / DK: $4,900) – Dozier has been heating up at the plate with five homers over his last five games and has a career .234 ISO against lefties. He will face Rangers lefty Martin Perez who has given up three homers over his last two starts.

SS – Marcus Semien (OAK) (FD: $3,300 / DK: $4,600) – Semien has homered in three of his last five games and has hit seven homers in just 69 plate appearances against lefties this season. He will face Pirates lefty Jeff Locke who has allowed 1.27 HR/9 to righties this season.

3B – Nick Castellanos (DET) (FD: $3,400 / DK: $4,500) – Castellanos has demonstrated great power against lefties this season with a .276 ISO while hitting five homers in just 82 plate appearances. Meanwhile, his opponent tonight lefty Drew Smyly has allowed 15 homers to righties this season for a 1.94 HR/9 rate.

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FD: $3,700 / DK: $3,400) – Stanton has been hitting better over the last couple weeks, striking out less and walking more. He has also displayed his power stroke again hitting three homers over his last nine games. At a reasonable price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings, the Marlins’ slugger is a good option to go deep again.

OF – Robbie Grossman (MIN) (FD: $2,900 / DK: $3,400) – Grossman has a .454 wOBA and .286 ISO against lefties this season and will face lefty Martin Perez who has given up all nine of his homers to righties this season.

OF – Justin Upton (DET) (FD: $2,700 / DK: $2,900) – Upton rounds out my Tigers’ parade of potential home run options today against home run prone lefty Drew Smyly. Upton hasn’t had the best season but did have a season-high five homers in June and will look to start July with a bang.

Longshot – Scott Van Slyke (LAD) (FD: $2,500 / DK: $2,900) – Van Slyke is typically a good cheap DFS option when facing a left-hander with a career .230 ISO. I expect him to be in the lineup tonight when the Dodgers face the Rockies lefty Jorge De La Rosa who has allowed 2.25 HR/9 to righties on the road this season.

 

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Wednesday, June 29 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Brian McCann 2 53.6
1B Jose Abreu 0 3.0
2B Chase Utley 0 0.0
SS Corey Seager 0 6.0
3B Jung-Ho Kang 0 9.2
OF Andrew McCutchen 0 0.0
OF Brett Gardner 0 6.2
OF Khris Davis DNP
Longshot Jordy Mercer 0 6.5

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 15 6 40.0% 14.81
1B 14 3 21.4% 10.53
2B 15 1 6.7% 9.64
SS 15 3 20.0% 11.20
3B 15 4 26.7% 14.43
OF 45 13 28.9% 15.30
Longshot 10 2 20.0% 11.67
Total 129 32 24.8% 13.21

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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