Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/26)

Short on time today but wanted to get some home run predictions out for a full 15-game Friday night slate. So, the player blurbs will be short and to the point today, pick on weak lefty starters.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Welington Castillo (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Castillo has a .308 ISO against lefties and will face Reds’ lefty Brandon Finnegan who has allowed 2.11 HR/9 to lefties.

1B – Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Encarnacion has a .297 ISO against lefties and will face Twins’ lefty Patt Dean who has allowed 1.77 HR/9 to lefties.

2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Altuve has a .238 ISO against lefties and will face lefty Drew Smyly who has allowed 1.57 HR/9 to righties.

SS – Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Tulowitzki is cheap with HR upside with a .193 ISO against lefties facing home run prone lefty Dean.

3B – Wilmer Flores (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Flores has a .333 ISO against lefties and will face Phillies lefty Adam Morgan who has allowed 2.34 HR/9 to righties.

OF – Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Cespedes has a .319 ISO against lefties and faces home run prone lefty Morgan.

OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Springer has a .312 ISO against lefties and will face lefty Smyly with his 1.57 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Miguel Sano (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Sano has a .246 ISO against lefties as he looks to turn yesterday’s doubles into homers today against lefty Francisco Liriano who has allowed 1.52 HR/9 to righties.

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Longshot – Brandon Guyer (CLE) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Guyer has a .347 ISO against lefties and will face Rangers lefty Martin Perez who has allowed 1.21 HR/9 to righties.

 

Wednesday, August 24 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Wilson Ramos 0 0.0
1B Mitch Moreland 0 3.0
2B Brian Dozier 1 27.9
SS Danny Espinosa 1 24.9
3B Maikel Franco 0 3.0
OF J.D. Martinez 0 15.9
OF Jayson Werth 0 12.2
OF Miguel Sano 0 3.0
Longshot Justin Morneau 0 3.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 28 11 39.3% 14.26
1B 29 6 20.7% 11.36
2B 29 4 13.8% 12.11
SS 29 5 17.2% 11.78
3B 29 6 20.7% 12.29
OF 90 23 25.6% 13.81
Longshot 22 3 13.6% 9.60
Total 256 58 22.7% 12.62

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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