Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/29)

You will see some common teams in the home run predictions for tonight’s 13-game slate as power hitting teams such as the Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs and Tigers all have matchups against pitchers that give up the long ball. While I only listed a couple players from each of those teams there were numerous options throughout their lineups that could in play to go deep tonight.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Evan Gattis (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Gattis has hits in each of his last three games including a double and two homers. He has a .282 ISO against lefties and will face A’s lefty Sean Manaea who has allowed 1.55 HR/9 to righties this season. Gattis has also already connected for double and homer off Manaea in six at-bats this season.

1B – Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Encarnacion has a .286 ISO against lefties and will face Orioles lefty Wade Miley who has allowed 1.68 HR/9 to righties. Encarnacion is 4-for-9 with two doubles and two homers off Miley in his career.

2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Altuve has a .437 wOBA against lefties this season and homered on Sunday. He will face lefty Manaea who has allowed a .350 wOBA to righties and at least one homer in each of his last six starts.

SS – Addison Russell (CHC) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Russell will face lefty Steven Brault making just his third big league start. Russell has had his best power month with seven homers in August and has a .242 ISO against lefties this season.

3B – Kris Bryant (CHC) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,600) – Bryant is putting together a huge year and has crushed lefties especially at home with a .348 ISO this season. He will face Pirates lefty Brault at Wrigley Field tonight.

OF – J.D. Martinez (DET) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $5,100) – A home run prediction article would not be complete without at least one hitter going against James Shields who has allowed 11 home runs over his last four starts and 2.29 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Jose Bautista (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Bautista has yet to go deep since returning from the DL four games ago but he has hit three doubles and has multiple hits in two games. He could go deep tonight against the home run prone Miley.

OF – Brandon Guyer (CLE) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Guyer has only homered once since joining the Indians in the beginning of August. However, he has a .337 average and .232 ISO against lefties this season and will face Twins lefty Hector Santiago who has allowed at least one homer in seven straight starts including three in his last start.

Longshot – Tyler Collins (DET) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $2,900) – Collins could get a start tonight against home run prone righty Shields. If he does he is a good cheap option who could go deep. Collins has hit all four of his homers this season off of righties and Shields has allowed 1.58 HR/9 to lefties.

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Friday, August 26 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Welington Castillo 0 6.0
1B Edwin Encarnacion 0 12.9
2B Jose Altuve 0 6.7
SS Troy Tulowitzki 0 12.2
3B Wilmer Flores 1 29.2
OF Yoenis Cespedes 0 6.0
OF George Springer 0 12.2
OF Miguel Sano 0 0.0
Longshot Brandon Guyer 0 21.8

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 29 11 37.9% 13.97
1B 30 6 20.0% 11.41
2B 30 4 13.3% 11.93
SS 30 5 16.7% 11.79
3B 30 7 23.3% 12.86
OF 93 23 24.7% 13.56
Longshot 23 3 13.0% 10.13
Total 265 59 22.3% 12.60

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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